I kind of like this line, I mean not to troll des, I think it has the be an option at least some percentage of the time.

I think pre is good and I would play 22-99 this way in this exact spot,(after thinking about it) I think pot odds are important.

I honesly don't see a valid point in re-opening the betting unless we plan on getting it in, which I might consider with the right dynamics.

if we raise it means we're turning 77 into a bluff, so we're not planning on getting it in. I just think given his range a pot-sized raise will get folds more than 50% of the times, making it profitable, thus better than folding. I did some skype ranging with a skype friend the other day and the result showed calling against this sizing (according to our ranges) to be about breakeven, while raising showed significant profit. But I'm interested in other peoples' ranges.

I'm not trollin, but show me the maths, we can discuss it all day, and I think your point is valid, understanding what they got, but at some point you gotta bet/check/fold, or w/e

Whenever I do a move like this I get the ole...."explain why you bet OTT?". Maybe fold pre

I just wanna know if you called OTR

I wanna say fold it 45% in this spot and 3bet desperadoo007%, R you ballin when you take this line?

I would just say it's good to have you back desp.

Ok so first let's range villain.

pf: probably A8o+, A6s+, 9Ts+, QJo+, 22+, and some suited one gappers maybe 8Ts+.

I expect this player to be cbetting his strong draws in that spot very close to 100%. But for the sake of being on the cautious side I shall leave a few draws in his range. so when he c/c flop I will perhaps rule out the flush draws and keep 9Ts for OESD. Given his pf tendencies I don't think he opens 9To . let's leave A8o+ in his pf open range from HJ too. I also rule out overpairs, top pairs, sets and 2 pairs. we can also rule out 22 and 55-66 since continuing with these is probably not something he'd do on that flop. Let's also throw in some AdX combos with some backdoor possibilities in his flop c/c range (Ad9x, AdTx). I will also leave in 1/3 of his AdQx and AdKx combos since I don't expect him to c/c them very often.

Flop range: 99,77,Ac8c,Ah8h,As8s,QcTc,QhTh,QsTs,Q9s,Qc8c,Qh8h, Qs8s,Tc9c,Th9h,Ts9s,Tc8c,Th8h,Ts8s,AdKc,AdQc,AdTc, AdTh,AdTs,Ac9d,Ad9c,Ad9h,Ad9s,Ac8h,Ac8s,Ad8c,Ad8h, Ad8s,Ah8c,Ah8s,As8c,As8h (4.1%)

I think his flop range is the same as his river range since otr he's either blocking, bluffing or vbetting and he can do that with all the hands above.

so if we make a pot-sized raise, given our line, I don't expect him to continue with less than 2 pair. The bet has to work 50% of the time for it to be profitable.

so his raise-calling range: TT,Q9s,Tc8c,Th8h,Ts8s (1%)

so he folds ~75% of the time. making the raise the most profitable. while folding is 0EV and calling is -EV (we need 20.5% and we only have 14% vs his river range).


now if we leave in some flush draws in his range (there aren't many once we take out the cards on the board since that has to be a FD without a J,8,T or 7d

river range (with flushes): 99,77,Ac8c,Ah8h,As8s,Ac7c,Ah7h,As7s,Ad6d,KdQd,QcTc ,QhTh,QsTs,Q9s,Qc8c,Qh8h,Qs8s,Tc9c,Th9h,Ts9s,Tc8c, Th8h,Ts8s,6d5d,AdKc,AdQc,AdTc,AdTh,AdTs,Ac9d,Ad9c, Ad9h,Ad9s,Ac8h,Ac8s,Ad8c,Ad8h,Ad8s,Ah8c,Ah8s,As8c, As8h (4.6%)

again if we raise he only continues with 2 pair or better

raise calling range: TT,Ad6d,KdQd,Q9s,Tc8c,Th8h,Ts8s,6d5d (1.2%)

so he folds ~74%. and again folding is 0EV and calling is -EV since we only hhave 16%

clearly raising is the best play here, followed by folding and calling is the worst

you make alot of asumptions that can be right or wrong readless,
i dont want to go into details cause i dont want to tl;dr
i mostly agree but it hink the difference between fold and jam is closer than you make it, calling is obv < both.
good post desp.

if he c/c t9s i think hes def c/cing flush draws aswell, which is obviously problematic

To be honest i've skimmed this but there's two things we could have done.

1 After floating the flop we can turn our hand into a bluff on the flop.
2 Im torn between folding or raising the river, never calling though.

Nice hand as played I like your play, it looks like we've made our draw such a strong line to take.

ah but here is the thing. with 8d, 7d, Jd (top pair) and Td out there really isn't many flush draws out there. there are many sc that he just can't have because we eliminated those. And we can pretty sure he doesn't c/c with AQdd and AKdd. And as you can see in the second range I did leave the flush draws in there and we still get folds ~74%


@ Furo. you are certainly correct, but this is not readless. He's very aggressive and it's because we can rule out overpairs, sets tp and 2 pair otf that this becomes a raise. I don't think ruling these out is unreasonable vs a solid tag who we think is aggressive. Also we're not jamming. just a potsize raise.

"not too many reads on villain but he seems like a TAG so treat him as such"
seems sorta readless to me, especially concerning postflop

yes I realized this sounded like readless so I said this later on "I think a fairly aggressive TAG (which he was) "

to me TAG = tight and aggressive. anyway, I tried to come up with ranges that make the raise not the better play and I couldn't. His line is just going to fold the river too often. you will have to start including top pair hands in his range otf to make it not so I think and I really do think we can rule those out with this particular villain.