late but not in money...have a nice stack...

pretty new to table...I mean...wtf...was shoving over first 3 bet but is this now a snap fold?

Poker Stars $50+$5 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t200/t400 Blinds + t50 - 9 players - View hand 8894
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

MRPOKERWONG (BTN): t12964 M = 32.41
Tens Coragem (SB): t10940 M = 27.35
cheese625 (BB): t18232 M = 45.58
Hero (UTG): t33583 M = 83.96
Babosy (UTG+1): t11732 M = 29.33
Phoenician88 (UTG+2): t16162 M = 40.41
Y2JohnK6 (MP1): t15685 M = 39.21
superbea (MP2): t15788 M = 39.47
Dee Kakes (CO): t12612 M = 31.53

Pre Flop: (t1050) Hero is UTG with Q Q
Hero raises to t999, 3 folds, superbea raises to t2625, 3 folds, cheese625 raises to t18182 all in, Hero??????

[ ] snap fold
[X] snap call

i have this EXACT thread going. but with jj.

your getting 1 to 3 on your money if both call, and you alreadu have 1k in.
i think calling is ev- since raising utg obv shows strength and you got raised and reraised. reraiser should only be showing down kk+ and maybe occaisonally ak rite?

I is never folding here. If either villain had us covered then I'd consider folding, but we have to be a favourite here often, and can land ourselves a Huuuuuuuuuuuuge stack.

Also if we call and lose we still have 40bb left.

Fist pump call imo.

sigh i want to fold but havent played tournaments for ages, its obviously dependent on reads though

THink the only way I'm folding here is if I know that the 3bettor is a supernit and never 3bets ever. If I don't know that for absolutely damn sure,there is no way I'm folding. If you ahve JJ than this is way more of a decision,then I'm actually folding tbh,but now....I just think that he shows up with JJ/TT often enough for this to be a call

I'm going to give a complete and total cop-out answer here.

I probably fold here but I think calling's fine. This one's really really close, so much so that I don't think either is much of an error.

Kings I snap call. Jacks I snap fold. Queens I cry.

I don't think this is a snap call at all. Close your eyes call maybe, but both the 3 better and 4 better have extremely healthy stacks here, and I'd put the 4 better on a range of AK, QQ+ here, and the 3 better is only getting it in with KK+ (maybe AK) if we shove. With the rather large 4 bet, I don't think we have the odds to continue.

In doing some EV calcs, for this to be a good call, we NEED the 3-better to call with AK (assuming he is 3-betting less than 10% of his hands, which is super wide to 3-bet an UTG raise). It also helps, though not as much, if the 4-better can have JJ.

But if we assume the 4-better has JJ+, AK (pretty wide), and the 3-better to get it in with KK+ (he is probably dropping AK here), ignoring card removal, the 3-better needs to be 3-betting wider than 8% of hands, which without a read isn't happening.

So I really think that you can fold your QQ here. I don't see anyway that this is a snap call or fistpump call, at best it has a small positive expectation.

I think you should fold. Best case scenario, both villians have AK. I think the shove is probably AK. Seems like quite a large reraise for AA/KK, but not impossible. AA/KK is also in the 3 bettors range. You're flipping or you're dominated.

Hey Random,I see your point,and I appreciate your math,but I'm not sure why we think 4bettor has to be tight here. Because of the size of the 4bet,I think he's more likely to have a JJ/AKish hand than AA here,plus,I see people do stuff like this with TT kinda hands all the time.

I agree it's not a snap or fistpumpcall,but I don't think you can fold here.

Extremely read-dependent for me. I could go either way here, I do fold QQ sometimes in MTT's pre I just like to feel pretty confident that it's the right decision.

Pretty sure this is a good spot to fold QQ barring any reads whatsoever.

I highly doubt 3 bettor is folding at this point, unless he's a good aggro regular who 3-bets light and is capable of folding to 4-bet. Most donks are not gonna even think about folding after 3-bettiing the UTG opener. Unless of course he knows who you are, and that you open alot. (I kind of know you however and know this is not true in general.)

The 4-bettor's range that people are suggesting of JJ+, AK I think is way too tight if the guy is a WAG. I'm gonna OPR both villains in this hand, it's really close though.

is there a calc you use to solve for problems like this?(ie calling a 4-bet with a 3rd player still to act)

A very murky situation, sir. You can't fault a call here I suppose. I wouldn't blame you for folding either, which is what I would very likely do without some reads. If it's +EV it's not by much; probably around the equivalent of a successful blind steal.

his range is weighted away from KK+ imo...

=ev ssync...time to pull out the ol' soul reader...

Yeah I thought the same thing, because of the bet sizing etc. So I call w/out reads.

someone did it in another thread and it was slightly -ev (but it was razor close)...and about the same ev as AKs...

yea im thinkin this ones a fold its super close though

Maybe I'm an idiot - but I don't see why this is super close. Seeing as a bunch of people itt have said that this is close, then I might well be wrong but...

If BB is anywhere near a half decent player he has to know that his cold 4bet shove looks insanely strong, if he knows that, he isn't pulling this with AA/KK, and his range is other stuff we are are likely flipping with. He really has to be an uber donk to cold 4bet shove AA/KK. If he cold called the 3bet *then* I'd be worried. (and would probably flat and look to, check and re-evaluate on the flop)

We are new to the table, unless people know us (and seeing as we don't know them presumably they don't know us either) having a big stack means "we must like to gamble it up" so perhaps our opens will get a little less respect.

I think both their ranges are actually reasonably wide here, I doubt that if we called MP calls so we'd most often be HU vs AK AQ and middling pairs that aren't AA/KK very often. It's not beyond the realms of possibility that they both call with AK and have 4 outs between them..

It may very well be razor close in cEV or $EV, though shouldn't we be taking gambles where we can that if they are -EV are not very -EV, have the potential to build us a mammoth stack that we can then use to run over the entire table for a good long while, and where if we lose we will still have a nice 40bb very workable stack.

Would losing this pot severely hurt our chances of stealing many pots a little later in good steal positions?? If yes - then I can see the logic for folding here.

Also if we lose and BB gets to be the big stack at this table is he likely to use that stack to good effect? If yes I can see the logic to folding.

I still think that the potential upsides outweigh the potential downsides and we are very often flipping here.

If I am wrong and someone could explain why, that would be excellent.

I'd fold AKs here. I'd fold JJ without too much thinking as well.

I'd dance a jig before calling with KK.

If we give them both top ranges in teh stove:
BB = QQ+ 1/3 of JJ AQs+ AKo
MP = above + AJs & 1/2 the AQo

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.091% 31.95% 04.15% 2246422068 291514723.00 { QQ+, JdJs, JhJs, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 1: 30.242% 26.21% 04.03% 1842916884 283663027.00 { QQ+, JdJs, JhJs, AJs+, AKo, AcQd, AcQh, AcQs, AdQh, AdQs, AhQs }
Hand 2: 33.667% 32.28% 01.39% 2269755420 97695898.00 { QQ }

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.308% 31.62% 07.69% 1016883152 247180418.00 { QQ+, JdJs, JhJs, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 1: 32.779% 27.31% 05.47% 878243285 175866142.00 { QQ+, JdJs, JhJs, AJs+, AKo, AcQd, AcQh, AcQs, AdQh, AdQs, AhQs }
Hand 2: 27.913% 17.62% 10.29% 566649005 330966882.00 { AKs }

*if* those ranges are accurate we are 33% with QQ and a firm underdog with AKs - tho I'd guess they are too tight, especially for MP.

If you take out a couple of AA/KK combos from BB's range (as I don't think he shoves AA/KK cold every time) QQ is ~39% - If you add in a random bluff for BB and think that MP doesn't call the cold 4bet all that often if we ship it in as well then calling here is looking mighty attractive.

I don't think cold-4bet shoving is donkish at all with AA/KK. If people will get suspicious, like you are, of a flat then obviously it isn't bad to 4bet shove considering someones is 3betting an EP raiser and so he's more likely to get action.

Anyways, i'm putting the cold-4bet on QQ+, AK and we have 40% against this range. I believe the 3bettor will fold out enough of his range so that the dead money he put in would make it +EV to go HU against the 4bettor.

I think that the 3bettor will call our 5bet with QQ+ AK, and if so we only have 31% equity into a pot we've invested 33% of the chips in, making this case slightly -EV

But added that we have some FE against the 3bettor, some dead money and a potentially +EV spot against the BB, I think this is a shove.

seems like a good spot to post...any decision that is razor thin deserves some discussion.

Why do we all think that the 3 bettor here is so strong? Why do we think the BB is shoving wide with that many chips and the given action.

I did not have many specific reads at that point but I had been relatively active myself.

Think I will let it go a little longer before saying what I did and why...also before I tell what MP2 did also...

yap away

3bettor is raising an UTG raise for less than 3x, looks super strong (it's possible he's leaving himself room to fold, though, but it's rare for people to do that vs. an UTG raise which 4 people still yet to act). BB's raise size could be an indication of a weaker hand than QQ, but only if he has bet size tells, I'd shove my whole range there, plus he presumably thinks the 3bettor is strong. I think you can fold this fairly easily.

Edit: QQ in EP facing 3bet and cold 4bet thread I posted a few days ago -- http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/87...-spots-387157/

I think that it's one of those extremely rare spots where I sigh... fold.
With no reads I have absolutely no clue.

After a couple of Gin-Tonics I'm pretty sure I'm calling though.
Wow, that DID help the thread a lot.
Sry guys.

Given no reads, given chip stacks, I would fold this, but then I am an old nit, so you can disregard my opinion. BTW, I would shove AA here precisely because it looks like TT/JJ/AK.