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Small Stakes MTT Discussion and analysis of small stakes MTT strategy

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Old 08-09-2009, 08:36 PM   #1
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Stars $11 cubed...ITT I float and bluff shove river with naked suit A when flush comes in

floated here and since I had the A diamonds and we were deep I decided I was going to float with position and pressure hard if flush card hit...

what we think...spew or calculated bluff?

Poker Stars $10+$1 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t75/t150 Blinds - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

NOJOUR (MP2): t10125 M = 45
Hero (CO): t10560 M = 46.93
ANDYC27 (BTN): t8298 M = 36.88
davichon (SB): t4420 M = 19.64
LEstradioto (BB): t8710 M = 38.71
Gert_Jan_Blo (UTG): t9950 M = 44.22
lee118 (UTG+1): t4407 M = 19.59
TheProphesy1 (UTG+2): t12795 M = 56.87
sithlordx (MP1): t5415 M = 24.07

Pre Flop: (t225) Hero is CO with Q A
Gert_Jan_Blo raises to t450, 3 folds, NOJOUR calls t450, Hero calls t450, 1 fold, davichon calls t375, 1 fold

Flop: (t1950) 9 K 3 (4 players)
davichon checks, Gert_Jan_Blo bets t450, NOJOUR folds, Hero calls t450, davichon calls t450

Turn: (t3300) T (3 players)
davichon checks, Gert_Jan_Blo bets t600, Hero calls t600, davichon calls t600

River: (t5100) 7 (3 players)
davichon checks, Gert_Jan_Blo bets t1050, Hero raises to t9060 all in,
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Old 08-09-2009, 08:59 PM   #2
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Re: Stars $11 cubed...ITT I float and bluff shove river with naked suit A when flush comes in

seems like massive fps, hard to get people to fold at these stakes for one thing, also the overcaller could easily have a flush, and the guy betting obviously isnt the brightest given his bet-sizing, just fold the flop.
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Old 08-09-2009, 09:02 PM   #3
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Re: Stars $11 cubed...ITT I float and bluff shove river with naked suit A when flush comes in

I think peeling flop and turn are fine... you're getting real/implied odds to draw to any of your hands (back door nut flush/TP2K - usually good - on flop and gut shot straight/TP2K on the turn given how small the bet is).

I would have instafolded either street to a real bet.

I'd just fold the river now. Don't like bluffing in a 3-way pot... hard enough to get 1 villain to fold anywhere with any made hand in a $10... it's almost magic to get both to fold once they get to the river.

One villain has bet two streets (albeit weak) and another has check/called. Not sure it matters a ton what you represent because so few villains are thinking on the 2nd level (i.e. they're only thinking about their own cards). And both have shown a willingness to make strange moves as they stick around for 3 streets... imo, you may not even have enough fold equity to push 1 villain out, but that'd be closer and more similar the discussion we had in the other thread tonight where we can consider how often we need villain to fold and think about the risk/reward ratio we're looking at... but with 2, I think we just have to fold the river.
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Old 08-09-2009, 09:17 PM   #4
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Re: Stars $11 cubed...ITT I float and bluff shove river with naked suit A when flush comes in

Don't know if I like this, boss. Yea, good card to bluff on, and his riverbet sure looks like a scared one, but against 2 players.... I don't think so. I assume you don't have any reads or stats on them, but obviously the aggressor, and I'm using that term in the loosest sense possible here, isn't a superstar, and I just don't know what the other guy has that he'd c/c on two streets and fold on the river...especially with his stack.

I mean, it looks pretty and cool, I just fear this is one of those times when one of the villains timebank and call off with KJ.

I fold flop tbh, kinda nitty maybe, but 3way... I just don't get involved. Having said that, if I get to the turn, I don't mind that call because I think your implied odds are huuuge there, I just don't see any reason to get creative on river when you didn't get there.
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Old 08-09-2009, 09:47 PM   #5
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Re: Stars $11 cubed...ITT I float and bluff shove river with naked suit A when flush comes in

Well calculated. He can't have really have 2 diamonds since he raised prf, king on board and you have the ace.

Caller is a bit of a concern but he shoulda bet river.

I like the river.

That said... I fold two streets earlier.
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Old 08-09-2009, 10:03 PM   #6
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Re: Stars $11 cubed...ITT I float and bluff shove river with naked suit A when flush comes in

my thoughts before realising it was 3 way to the river

1)its a sunday- no-one is going to be folding much
2)ur river sizing is pretty bad imo, shoving is a pretty big overbet, and making it 4250 or something is probably not going to make much of a difference in his calling range(if he has a flush hes calling woteva amount, and if he has a set he might fold/he might not )
3)villain probably isnt bluffing raising utg and then betting into 3 people

now seeing it was 3 way to turn and river shoving river i am sure is completely retarded. one of utg or sb have a flush here a lot and theyre never folding a low flush because donkament players never fold

Last edited by andy099; 08-09-2009 at 10:08 PM.
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Old 08-09-2009, 11:12 PM   #7
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Re: Stars $11 cubed...ITT I float and bluff shove river with naked suit A when flush comes in

this should have worked...nh
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Old 08-10-2009, 02:36 AM   #8
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Re: Stars $11 cubed...ITT I float and bluff shove river with naked suit A when flush comes in

i fold on the turn. you have a gutshot in a 3way pot, no chance i pay 6% of my stack for 1 card
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