i guess its close? if we win good shot at winning the comp? icm disaster?

Snap call the disaster is you lost

Is BTN ever bluffing? He knows he's gonna get called by SB. Not to mention we are pretty much flipping against ATC anyway. This is probably not even a +cEV call.

And it IS an ICM disaster with these stack distributions. Winning this doesn't increase our $EV that much. It gets worse if theres another microstack on the other table.

Tighten up until you've made the final table or if you are the shortest stack.

Easy fold until then.

The numbers by ICM or Cev are not even close its a easy call if you look at numbers.

What numbers are those?

A quick sim i ran says it's closer than I initially thought, but certainly not an easy call.
BTN needs to shove 50% for a call to be breakeven in $ev. Tons of unknown variables though like chip average, stack distribution, pay-outs, etc. Nevermind reads on shoving ranges in a spot like this.

44+,A5s+,A8o+,KJs+ 14% even against this range this is a Cev as for ICM its going to be 2+ against a range of 35-40%

calling

most def a +cEV call, not sure abt ICM. payouts?

BTN should be pretty wide as he's effectively shoving into one player so his range should be similar to his SB jamming range.

Dont post results. Never post results.

What are the payouts? I prolly can't find a fold here either.

Does the SB being in there with 1 BB make this closer to a fold or closer to a call or doesn't it affect our decision whatsoever?

At 1st glance I would prolly treat it much like an SB vs BB shove as the SB is only 1.3x, and therefore call off. If it was a pure 10x effective shove on D He can profitably shove 43.4% hands (as low as 45s, 57s+, 69s+, 910o, Ax, 22+ etc) on the button.

As the SB is pot committed villain will likely tighten this range IMO (or should) as he doesn't really want his 45s to go vs ATC as well as potentially getting called by BB. If I put in a 35.5% range that I THINK he would shove (22+ 67s+, Ax, Q9o+ Q7s+ 108s+ J10o+ K9o+ K5s+ etc - that's in a weird order but you get the picture), 55 is at 51.71% eq vs villains 48.28%. If he is shoving with just the 10x cEV standard we only go up to 52.64% eq vs 47.36%eq (difference is ties btw). So pretty marginal.

If Villain is treating is as SB shove and shoves like 75.3% hands, we still only have 56.16% eq vs 43.84% eq with our 55 vs that range.

Obvs our pot odds, what with antes and blinds invested, make us more $ than this equity calculation represents with a call in both spots making this a +cEV call. Ooo but it's close with ICM yo!

Good heart for calling. I would too in hot $16.5. I would cry-fold the milly and hate my life/self

Seems close, but looks like a call against a decent reg.

Agreed that BTN could be shoving wide, but so what? Without payout structure, this cannot be a snap call. What do we gain from being in a flip here, really? BTN is almost guaranteed two overs, and we have little chance of crushing the flop. I am inclined to fold here and let SB put his life at stake. If you went all-in first, totally different. I lean towards folding.

good points

Agreeing with Logwyn here.

I don't think either choice is bad, calling or folding. You have 8BB behind if you fold, 7,5 when SB passed so you still have fold equity on a shove.

Personally I would just fold, I don't wanna flip for my tournament by calling. If I shove 55 and get called and loose, so be it. I rather fold, see if I either can pick up a better hand (unlikely) or get a better spot to accumulate chips. I would fold and hope that I get Ax, Kx, q5+, any connectors from 76+ and any suited cards on the sb, button or co and shove if folded to me.

My decision might be different depending on players stats and table dynamics but in a vacuum, that's my play.

Fold. w/ SB being so short u are effectively flipping on the FT bubble. Would be good to know the stack sizes on the other table as well.