Not a tournament expert (or an anything expert, really) but just thinking out loud for the practice...
Is the minraise from EP standard at this level/stage? I doubt a winning player would be bad enough to do this with a totally depolarized range (i.e. with aces for value because he's scared of folding everyone out), so there are at least some hands he intends to fold to a 3-bet or 5-bet in his range.
If there are hands he intends to fold to a 3-bet or 5-bet, it stands to reason that there are also hands he will raise, 4-bet or even 6-bet bluff with. How balanced do we expect his min 4-betting range to be, and how do we expect him to play with the various parts of that range?
If it's top-heavy with pairs and big card hands, we can overbet ship to feign weakness and get it in on the OK side of a flip (53/47) against TT+,AQs+,AKo, with better equity the more underpairs, big Ax hands and bluffs there are in his range. This will fold out his air, but we weren't going to make any money from that postflop anyway unless he got spewy or flopped gin.
If it's bottom-heavy with stuff like suited wheel aces, connectors and low pairs, we can click it back to give the illusion of fold equity, then snap off a 6-bet shove and get it in crushing (66/33) a range like TT+,44-22,AQs+,A5s-A2s,64s,53s+,42s+,32s,AKo (value range from above + a handful of suited bluffs -- barely more combos than the value hands). If he flats the 6-bet, it would be a pretty nutty move to open shove any flop afterwards (super stopngo?) but we would have to play pretty much straightforwardly regardless; i.e. ranging him and doing the math as best we can.
I think you should probably be shipping this in preflop most of the time. The fact that he is a strong player is going to make it a ton more likely he has a worse hand thinking that an $11 player is going to be scared more often than not
this is a hand that should be discussed alot, the hand makes me wanna level myself.. villain is reppin the nuts at this spot, but would he play it this strong, he must know that i know that he has a decent hand since he raises utg into shortstacked donks, but my 3bet looks so strong , so its almost always a big hand, but he 4bets me afterall so small, and i dont think he is light here ever. i think he decides to put me on jj or qq, and 4bets his ak (i think he has that) small to rep a monster, to make me make a hero laydown ... but still, not sure
Even if his entire range after he 4bets is AK, KK+ you're putting in 13,819 to win 19,549 so you'd need around 41% for it to be right. QQ vs that range is 40% so if he has any other hand in his range or folds ever then shove pre is good.
this is a hand that should be discussed alot, the hand makes me wanna level myself.. villain is reppin the nuts at this spot, but would he play it this strong, he must know that i know that he has a decent hand since he raises utg into shortstacked donks, but my 3bet looks so strong , so its almost always a big hand, but he 4bets me afterall so small, and i dont think he is light here ever. i think he decides to put me on jj or qq, and 4bets his ak (i think he has that) small to rep a monster, to make me make a hero laydown ... but still, not sure
You have to play his entire range not his nuts. Since you 3 bet him twice prior and he's pissed I have to add more to the range and say AQo TT+ conservatively. you give him too much credit. Can't see how you can ever fold or not shove
You have to play his entire range not his nuts. Since you 3 bet him twice prior and he's pissed I have to add more to the range and say AQo TT+ conservatively. you give him too much credit. Can't see how you can ever fold or not shove
i agree, but his sizing worries me, and he is also oop, but if we 5bet we look super strong, so would u shove it after his 4bet
Even if his entire range after he 4bets is AK, KK+ you're putting in 13,819 to win 19,549 so you'd need around 41% for it to be right. QQ vs that range is 40% so if he has any other hand in his range or folds ever then shove pre is good.
this is good to know, but what worries me is his sizing, its just unreal, dont u think that aswell
I don't see what's so strange about this hand. He 4bet you, you called. One of the worst possible flops hit, you fold. Done.
Sure, since he's been extremely active you could shove him pre but since you didn't you get a horrendous flop that you need to fold to. I don't believe you have much fold equity at all on turn.
I hate calling to play fit or fold post flop in a 3bet pot. Even w/ a strong hand like QQ (forgetting flop overpair %, like 50-70%) I'm pretty sure the math is pretty unforgiving because villain will not always stack off post, sometimes they make better hand, you'll be forced to fold to an over, etc.
AI or fold for me PF. Prob just get AI begrudgingly.