Can't wait for this!

brad2002tj will be posting the latest PushBot Charts to his website soon, so thanks to him. These charts are different from the previous charts, in that they take into account the percentage of chips you have in the tournament (since chips become less valuable as you accumulate more of them). There are two charts -- one when you are OOTM and one when you are ITM.

If you try the charts and find them useful, it would be great if you could forward $5 to my pokerstars account: jcm4ccc

The PushBot Charts advocate very tight play when it comes to pushing with less than 10M. For instance, the charts suggest you should fold 88 when you are UTG and have more than 2% of the chips in play. The tight play is based on the following, all of which are based on my analysis of data that I collected systematically in low buy-in ($12) tournaments:

Your opponent’s calling range is much looser when he is in the SB or BB.
Your opponent’s calling range is much looser when you are in the CO, Button, or SB.
Your opponent will call you 100% of the time when he is holding certain premium hands.
For other good but not premium hands, your opponent will call you some percentage of the time and fold the other times. The better the hand that your opponent holds, the more likely he is to call you.
Occasionally, your opponent will call you with a crap hand.

None of this should be surprising, but generally these facts are not taken into account when calculating hand ranges, calling ranges, etc. These charts take these facts into account. The end result is that the charts advocate a tight pushing range. So tight, in fact, that I’m sure many will call me an idiot or a fish or a retard or whatever. But don't hate me. It's just math.

The one thing the charts don't take into account is the cost of folding your hand when you are not in the blinds. There is a cost, but I don't know how to calculate it. So use the charts as information, nothing more. If you follow the charts to the letter, especially when you are ITM, there is a good chance you will blind out. But still, I think it's good to know what is profitable and what is not.

The next post gives an example of my calculations, for those who are interested in the nitty-gritty math.

To demonstrate how these figures were arrived at, I will go through one calculation, using one of the more strange outcomes .. pushing JJ with 8 players to go, already ITM, with 2% of the chip pool. Based on the charts, a push with 5.1M is even money.

In a PS 180 man tournament, 2% of the chips equals 5400 chips. With an M of 5.1, this means that the blinds and antes are worth 1050 chips.


1. Establishing the calling ranges

Based on my analysis of data in low-limit tournaments, here is the calling range.

For your opponents who are not in the blinds:
100% JJ-AA; AQs-AKs; AKo
78% 77-TT; AQo
36% 55-66; A7s-AJs; ATo-AJo;
8% 22-44; A5s-A6s; KTs-KQs; QJs; A6o-A9o; KTo-KQo; QJo

This means that if an opponent not in the blinds has 77, for example, he will call you 78% of the time and fold 22% of the time. Multiplying these percentages out (taking into account that your two Js cannot appear in your opponents’ hands), each opponent not in the blinds will call you 7% of the time and fold 93% of the time.

For your opponents in the blinds:
100% 88-AA; A9s-AKs; AJo-AKo
36% 55-77; A2s-A8s; KQs; A9o-ATo; KQo
17% 22-44; KTs-KJs; A2o-A8o; KTo-KJo
6% K7s-K9s; Q9s-QJs; JTs-J8s; T9s-T8s; 98s; QJo-QTo; JTo-J9o; T8o-T9o; 98o

With JJ in your hand, based on these calling ranges, each opponent in the blinds will call you 11.8% of the time and fold 89.2% of the time.


2. Stealing the blinds

Given the folding ranges above, you will steal the blinds 51.5% of the time. So, 51.5% of the time, you will end up with 6450 chips.

3. Getting called by opponents not in the blinds.

Based on the calling ranges above, you will get called by an opponent not in the blinds around 35.4% of the time. Of the times that you are called, you will be called by the premium range above 42% of the time, the second range 30% of the time, the third range 19% of the time, and the fourth range 9% of the time.

Multiplying these figures out, you will win 57% of the time, and lose 43% of the time. Multiply this by the % of times you are called, and you will have 11800 chips (doubling up + 1M) 20.3% of the time, and 0 chips 15.1% of the time. So far, this is what we have:

51.5% 6450 chips
20.3% 11800 chips
15.1% 0 chips

4. Getting called in the blinds

Based on the calling ranges above, you will get called by an opponent in the blinds around 13.1%% of the time. Of the times that you are called, you will be called by the premium range above 59% of the time, the second range 21% of the time, the third range 15% of the time, and the fourth range 5% of the time.

Multiplying these figures out, you will win 61.5% of the time, and lose 38.5% of the time. Multiply this by the % of times you are called, and you will have 11000 chips (doubling up + 200 chips I threw in) 8.1% of the time, and 0 chips 5% of the time. So far, this is what we have:

51.5% 6450 chips (still 9 opponents)
20.3% 11800 chips (8 opponents)
8.1% 11000 chips (8 opponents)
20.1% 0 chips

This multiplies out to an average of 6600 chips. However, if you take out the ICM calculator and multiply it through, you’ll see that the average prize pool of the scenario above compared to 5400 chips and 9 opponents is almost identical.

can someone post a link to brad's site please?

nits ITT

really looking forward to this

I am sooo excited!!!!! (does that make me a nerd?)

http://www.brad2002tjpoker.com/?p=84

Weeeeeee

Uploaded the files to google docs because I'm a google fanboy
If you don't want that, jcm4cc, just say something and I will unshare them again.

OOTM pushchart: https://docs.google.com/fileview?id=...MDlkYWM5&hl=de
ITM pushchart: https://docs.google.com/fileview?id=...ZDg0NzIw&hl=de

Thanks a lot for the work you put into that btw!

let me make sure I have this straight (this is not criticism, just checking to make sure I am using it right)

If I am ITM, and I have AKs (Let's say we are at a 180 man, and this is the first hand of the FT), I should fold if I have anywhere between 5400 and 16200 chips? I mean...I think I am understanding this right, and that just seems a bit off so just checking.

Again, this is not criticism I just want to make sure I know how to read it...tyvm for your hard work jcm, and if I use these I will definitely ship you $5.

Excellent work guys!

major mspaint skillz!

If you get dealt AKs in the situation described above, then this is the procedure you should follow:

1. Pick up the PushBot Charts
2. Place them face-down on the table.
3. Shove the **** out of that hand.

But yeah, you're reading the charts correctly.

Shipped 5 on stars. Thanks again

So these charts treat an M of 3 as the same as an M of 9. What made you decide the % of the chips in the field was more important than your M? I'm not saying this isn't correct I'm just curious. Its an interesting way of looking at it.