I think if we are sure we can make 15-1 from the POT and not risk our stack then it should be simple enough...there are 7.5BB in the pot before it gets to us...assuming the blinds call the pot will be 10BB...if the opener is tight and has an over pair and never folds we stand to win at least 17 more BB...so we are calling 2 to potentiallly win 27BB or so...close as I said...

Don't think you can assume at all that the opener has a big pair. Still OK to play this hand multiway OTB.

My point was that if the opener is tight enough that you can range him to a big hand then you can easier justify a call. If he opens at all wide it becomes a shove or fold

Is that a statment or a question? Can't say I agree with it as a statement. I have ssnyc's reasons, explain yours to me please.

this about sums it up

curious what you think we're going to flop ss that we would be happy to stack off with?

like 2 pair? flop flushes? straights?

chances of flopping a flush: 1 in 118.79

flush draw : 1.4/1

making that flush by the river: 1:~3

so basically we're not going to flop a flush close to enough to justify calling pf.

We will flop a FD a relatively high % and if we go with it, most of the time we go busto.

if we do happen to flop flush and get it in, a higher heart has decent equity to redraw.

~~
flopping 2-pair: 48:1

~~~~

Trips: 73 : 1

~~

straights: don't know the exact odds to this but I know it's 1/3 less likely to make a straight with a one-gapper than a connector.


like if we're talking about flopping 2-pair or better we're going to do it somewhere around 7% of the times (i.e. we need to win 28BB everytime we flop). And even then we're not sure to win the hand as over pairs have equity to redraw against our flushes and 2 pairs. Moreover, the times we do flop these hands, we will do so on scary textures in a multiway pot. Basically, villain will not be stacking off easily when it's a 3flush board, small connected flop or trip board in multiway. vs that many villains there are also significant reverse implieds when we have 8 high.

this is why a pocket pair in this spot is much much better. 1- disguised hand. 2- almost equally strong hand when we hit regardless of the # of villains in the pot. 3- higher frequency of flopping it. 4- less reverse implieds.

It really is a bad call here imo. I even think shoving is probably more profitable than flatting.

I think desperado should fold

no I prob go all in in this spot actually.

This



Shoving is better than flatting imo; 86s will actually have vaguely decent equity against most of the hands we'll get called with.

30% vs TT+/AQ

Shoving is awful because you don't have enough FE and you are way behind if called.

It is probably a fold, but flatting is interesting because the hand plays fairly well multiway with position.

shoving can't be awful imo. it might be marginally -cEV. you need them to fold around 50% and once the OR folds you're not really up against nutted ranges, their fold frequency is gonna be much higher than the OR's(esp if they're flatting 86s-type hands). With the right image and villains it can definitely be a +EV shove and 86s has ok equity when called.

When you go multiway, isn't it like just 20% to breakeven 5 way?

well its 30% heads up, ~20ish multiway (but you get mo money)

Flatting can't be that bad if you are decent postflop. It is not the strength of your hand, but having position 5-7 way.