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Nut flush against river shove Nut flush against river shove
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04-18-2015 , 11:09 PM
#1
Zarkhupi's Avatar
Zarkhupi
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centurion
Join Date: Sep 2014 Posts: 108
Villain is 36/10/2.6/8.3/ over 67 hands and is kinda fishy my guess.
Is our sizing wrong OTT, should we bet more?
What do we do on the river? does he ever doing this with a low flush? or could he felt nuted with naked big ace here? lol

    Poker Stars, $5 Buy-in (200/400 blinds, 40 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 8 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

    SB: 17,122 (42.8 bb)
    BB: 4,995 (12.5 bb)
    UTG+2: 17,920 (44.8 bb)
    MP1: 2,659 (6.6 bb)
    MP2: 11,410 (28.5 bb)
    Hero (MP3): 22,861 (57.2 bb)
    CO: 22,620 (56.6 bb)
    BTN: 24,078 (60.2 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is MP3 with T K
    3 folds, Hero raises to 800, CO calls 800, BTN folds, SB calls 600, BB calls 400

    Flop: (3,520) A 9 A (4 players)
    SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets 1,400, CO folds, SB calls 1,400, BB folds

    Turn: (6,320) 7 (2 players)
    SB checks, Hero bets 2,400, SB calls 2,400

    River: (11,120) 2 (2 players)
    SB bets 12,482 and is all-in, Hero?
    Nut flush against river shove Quote
    04-19-2015 , 01:50 AM
    #2
    Gabx[17]
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    I understand your concern but there is no way I'm folding. All Ax and lower flush plus all bluffs and pairs( if he thinks you don't have an A) it's a huge % of his range compare to hands that beat you.
    Nut flush against river shove Quote
    04-19-2015 , 02:00 AM
    #3
    ss1
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    grinder
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    I'm guessing that V flopped a boat w/ 99.
    Nut flush against river shove Quote
    04-19-2015 , 02:05 AM
    #4
    Gabx[17]
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    Of course is part of his range. But I think once you bet the turn as well if I have 99 I would raise cause I know there is no way you are folding your ace.. Due to his stats a see him more like an ace with a strong kicker or a weaker flush most of the times. And you only need to win 33% equity to call
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    04-19-2015 , 12:15 PM
    #5
    Zarkhupi's Avatar
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    centurion
    Join Date: Sep 2014 Posts: 108
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Gabx[17]
    I understand your concern but there is no way I'm folding. All Ax and lower flush plus all bluffs and pairs( if he thinks you don't have an A) it's a huge % of his range compare to hands that beat you.
    why is it huge % of his range in this case? I think you have to base you reads on the opponents actions/mistakes, which is donk-lead-overberbet-shove... i mean who bluffs that fishy here, with 3 Aces and the flush out there.
    Nut flush against river shove Quote
    04-19-2015 , 06:33 PM
    #6
    Gabx[17]
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    Ok you May be right. I check it again and this is what IMO his range could be: 99,77,A9,A7,AA,AK,AQ,Qd9d,8d6d for a total of 25 hands that beat u and 16 that u win. That gives you a 39% equity and you only need 34% to call.
    If you add any possible bluff or weaker aces like AJ or AT then you have an easy call.
    What you think?
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    04-19-2015 , 07:25 PM
    #7
    RalphWaldoEmerson's Avatar
    RalphWaldoEmerson
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    Pooh-Bah
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    Size bigger ott so that V has < or = psb otr.

    ez call ldo.
    Nut flush against river shove Quote
    04-19-2015 , 08:42 PM
    #8
    Gabx[17]
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    Agree
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    04-19-2015 , 10:40 PM
    #9
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    OP, if this provides you any context, even with AKo here I would tank before folding, and against some players I would call. Any flush, no matter how low, is a call. You are overestimating SSMTT players' understanding of relative hand strength; not only that, you fail to account for the obligatory ****** and spaz factors.
    Nut flush against river shove Quote
    04-19-2015 , 11:51 PM
    #10
    Gabx[17]
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    Exactly! I saw so many crazy **** on SSMTT to give him so much credit and such a narrow range.
    Nut flush against river shove Quote
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