Hi guys, so before I post the full hand, I would like some feedback on the theoretical side of a check or bet decision with these conditions. I broke this hand down and made some reasonable assumptions, but even after seeing all of the numbers in Flopzilla I am not sure if check or bet was the correct move. Here it is:

Blinds 30-60
Hero stack on turn: 3,530
Villain stack: 2,475
Pot 1,140

Hero has TT and is in position.
The board is 4 J 2 6

Villain checks to hero
Based on play up until this point, we assume this is villain's range: 40% TPGK, 20% Flush Draw, 20% Gut Shot (some of these are combo draws like 56ss), 20% weak hands that will FOLD.

Flopzilla says our hand is currently ahead 50% of the time, and the equity is 50/50 vs V's range.

We assume V will call with everything but the weak hands (80% as the player seems like a station).

Is it proper to check or bet and how much? Is this a case where the EV is very close between the 2 decisions, or am I missing something? Please try to answer before moving to the HH if possible.

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Now for the full hand history:
$5.50 MTT
Seat 8 is the button
Seat 2: x(6090).
Seat 3: UTG (3000). (VPIP 61 / PFR 11 / 3Bet 8 / Agr% 18) small sample
Seat 4: x(2941).
Seat 5: x(6897).
Seat 6: Hero (4055).
Seat 7: x(3120).
Seat 8: x(2910).
Seat 9: x(3259).
Blinds 30-60

Hero: [10s 10d]

UTG calls (60)
2 folds
Hero raises (240)
everyone else folds
UTG calls (180)

*** FLOP ***: [4s Js 2d] (570)
UTG checks
Hero bets (285)
UTG calls (285)

*** TURN ***: [4s Js 2d] [6d] (1,140)
UTG checks
Hero bets (570)
UTG calls (570)

*** RIVER ***: [4s Js 2d 6d] [9c] (2,280)
Check Check, UTG mucks

I prefer to check back the flop here, you can only get value from flush draws and 55-99 here. And if a flush draw reraises, you are left in a bad situation. As played though if you are ahead of him 50% of the time, and he folds 20% of that 50%, I think checking is the correct play here. I think you need to be ahead of at least 50% of his calling range to make a value bet in this spot.

Thanks, you're right that on the flop the check back is probably the correct play. I probably have a better case for equity denial if I have a hand like 77.

The more I think about the turn decision, the more I think it is a negative EV move to bet (or at least worse than checking). If we check, we give a free card but we are also allowing missed draws to take a stab on the river or weak pairs to think they are good enough to thin value bet (would be very thin). On the other hand, it might not be fair to think villain checked turn with ALL of his top pair combos rather than leading. Probably going to bust out the calculator and go through EV of each scenario (bet turn, v folds; bet turn, v calls w TP; bet turn, v calls w draw VS check against V's range assuming nobody is bluffed on the river)

Grunch:

To really give a complete response, we would need to know more about Villain. Are they the type to check/call with draws or check/raise? Will they bluff missed draws on the river?


Villain image 1: often check/calls with draws and tries to trap with made hands

We should be betting here. This way we get value from the draws that Villain has and, if they happen to have a made hand, we can check back rivers and take a showdown.


Villain image 2: often check/raises with draws or is willing to bluff at missed draws

We should be checking here. This prevents Villain from pushing us off of a potential better hand and it lets us pick off Villain bluffs on the river when they decide to try to fire at it after we check behind on the turn.


In general, I would opt to check back here and plan to call on most rivers, but player image is important in these spots.