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Small Stakes MTT Discussion and analysis of small stakes MTT strategy

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Old 06-26-2012, 09:58 AM   #16
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Re: Hypothetical Situation in MTT

have you done statistical analysis to show these results are significant and not just random variation? how do you explain MP being lower than LP? also, how do you know this higher BB/hand from EP is a result of people folding more to them, thus allowing them to take down the blindfs uncontested?

Edit: just saw you already discussed that posibility.

I don't have doubts about their range being stronger from EP. on average, it has to. but is it strong enough for us to fold a hand that has blockers to AK/KK/QQ/AQ and flips with every other pair and has decent equity against most aces with 12BB?
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Old 06-26-2012, 10:05 AM   #17
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Re: Hypothetical Situation in MTT

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Originally Posted by desperad0oo7 View Post
have you done statistical analysis to show these results are significant and not just random variation? how do you explain MP being lower than LP? also, how do you know this higher BB/hand from EP is a result of people folding more to them, thus allowing them to take down the blindfs uncontested?
One way to increase bb/hand is getting folded to.
Another way, is to win those hands which we they called on. So Its safe to assume that their ranges are usually ahead of others calling range.
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Old 06-26-2012, 10:13 AM   #18
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Re: Hypothetical Situation in MTT

ya but if you break even on the times you get called, then have a higher rate of getting folded to then you will have a higher BB/hand and it wouldn't be because you have a stronger range.

also, these could easily be due to random variation. without a statistical test of significance it's hard to tell.

@wangtangkiki, can you look up what hand they showed up with when they opened a ~12 bb stack?
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Old 06-27-2012, 01:22 AM   #19
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Re: Hypothetical Situation in MTT

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Originally Posted by desperad0oo7 View Post
ya but if you break even on the times you get called, then have a higher rate of getting folded to then you will have a higher BB/hand and it wouldn't be because you have a stronger range.

also, these could easily be due to random variation. without a statistical test of significance it's hard to tell.

@wangtangkiki, can you look up what hand they showed up with when they opened a ~12 bb stack?
But why would you jam it pre??
What do you think his opening range is ?? and what do you think he can fold after we shove ?? how often does he fold ?? I get that we might be 35% at worst, but still is it worth taking this spot ?? also are we taking this only to amass chips and run over people , or is surviving and searching for better spots ok sometimes, specially this deep.

Do you not think we can flat and gain more FE on the flop , when he does not hit a pair, which is a lot of the times ??
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Old 06-27-2012, 06:32 AM   #20
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Re: Hypothetical Situation in MTT

I jam it pre because it's a pretty good spot to double up imo
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Old 06-27-2012, 09:26 AM   #21
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Re: Hypothetical Situation in MTT

Readless I wouldnt shove this - villain open shoves weaker part of his opening range and there are prob lots of resteal stacks on table so he r/fs hardly ever.

We have about 40% equity tops when he looks us up (pockets 77+ and broadways), probably less.

Flatting seems retarded off these stacks but might be > -1bb expectation.

I fold in play.
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Old 06-28-2012, 06:37 AM   #22
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Re: Hypothetical Situation in MTT

Fold, we have less equity than the people saying shove think we do
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Old 06-28-2012, 03:19 PM   #23
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Re: Hypothetical Situation in MTT

Call to the min raise...play poker better than the dude after 3 cards appear

Think shoving here vs a random is really bad
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Old 06-28-2012, 04:22 PM   #24
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Re: Hypothetical Situation in MTT

Shoving seems thin. Villain has to fold 40%-50% of the time for shoving to break even, but we can't assume he's opening that wide with these stacks, so I think he folds closer to 30%. Assuming we're 9 handed with a 10% ante we're getting 4.5:1 with a hand that flops well and we'll have about 2x pot behind so our postflop decisions will be very easy. We can fold on bad flops or jam over a cbet on favorable ones; sometimes we'll take the pot down and the times when we get called we'll have decent equity. Villain will likely check back some flops which makes the situation even better for us.

I think calling is definitely optimal in the KQs hypothetical.

Last edited by CBorders; 06-28-2012 at 04:43 PM.
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Old 06-29-2012, 04:59 AM   #25
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Re: Hypothetical Situation in MTT

Quote:
Originally Posted by ssnyc View Post
Call to the min raise...play poker better than the dude after 3 cards appear

Think shoving here vs a random is really bad
Agree shoving is the worst among all options. Not much room to play poker postflop with these stacks. My pre plan is to shove all non-A High boards, rainbow/two tone boards. This gives him an opportunity to law down Low PPs, and A high that completely missed, which he probably wont fold to a preflop jam.

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Originally Posted by CBorders View Post
Shoving seems thin. Villain has to fold 40%-50% of the time for shoving to break even, but we can't assume he's opening that wide with these stacks, so I think he folds closer to 30%. Assuming we're 9 handed with a 10% ante we're getting 4.5:1 with a hand that flops well and we'll have about 2x pot behind so our postflop decisions will be very easy. We can fold on bad flops or jam over a cbet on favorable ones; sometimes we'll take the pot down and the times when we get called we'll have decent equity. Villain will likely check back some flops which makes the situation even better for us.

I think calling is definitely optimal in the KQs hypothetical.
Can you elaborate this with Eg on certain boards, if you dont agree with my plan above ? Thanks.
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