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Old 05-10-2017, 10:44 AM   #1
Agharazi
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How to play pocket rockets when villains range is ahead of you OTF

Hi guys,

This is an interesting hand I played several days ago. I realized that I literally have no idea how to play pocket AA on this board in a 3b inflated pot. Some info on the hand: there is a 3x open form EP, I 3b to 8BBs and a decent reg cold calls from CO, the original opener folds. I put CO on 99-AA, AQ+/AQs+. Meanwhile, I think that half of the time he would play AA, KK, QQ and 99 differently. Same applies to AK – he probably 4b w AK half the time. Also I am blocking most cards cards containing Aces, so his chances of having AA and AQ, AK combos decrease even more. Now, if I assign AA – 15% in flopzilla, AQ-50% and AK – 25% (as he would be 4b his AK sometimes) and assign 50% to KK, QQ and 99, then we end up having only 43% equity on a flop of KdJhTd. Now, my question would start from the flop – what do I do? Do I x/c? Do I x/f? Or do I CB/f, CB/c? I decided to x/c. The action goes x/x. Turn is an Ace giving me a set. Now, obviously I am loosing only to straights – combos with a Q. If we look at the range we assigned preflop, there are not many of these. Obv I delayed CB and get a reraise shove. villain would probably be playing same with his complete range, except for 99, so I don’t doubt the call for a moment. Later, when I discussed this hand with some regs, they were telling me that CB/f on the flop would be better and even that I should consider bet/folding the turn,



    Poker Stars, $4 Buy-in (50/100 blinds, 10 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37722728

    MP3: 7,492 (74.9 bb)
    CO: 7,492 (74.9 bb)
    BTN: 7,235 (72.4 bb)
    SB: 5,763 (57.6 bb)
    BB: 4,894 (48.9 bb)
    UTG+1: 7,161 (71.6 bb)
    UTG+2: 6,352 (63.5 bb)
    MP1: 2,236 (22.4 bb)
    Hero (MP2): 4,499 (45 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A A
    UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 raises to 300, MP1 folds, Hero raises to 800, MP3 folds, CO calls 800, 4 folds

    Flop: (2,140) T J K (2 players)
    Hero checks, CO checks

    Turn: (2,140) A (2 players)
    Hero bets 1,200, CO raises to 4,060, Hero calls 2,489 and is all-in

    River: (9,518) T (2 players, 1 is all-in)

    Spoiler:



    Get the Flash Player to use the Hold'em Manager Replayer.




    which obv I can’t agree with.

    What do you think guys? How do we best play on the flop and turn?
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    Old 05-10-2017, 10:56 AM   #2
    Darth_Maul
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    Re: How to play pocket rockets when villains range is ahead of you OTF

    Yeah that's a terrible flop for AA - you don't even have backdoor flush potential.

    The turn is really interesting. The only hands in his range that pulled ahead are QQ/AQ/KQs but you just pulled ahead of sets he's slowplaying, and the Ace may give him some 2p hands that he was afraid to bet on the turn, if they were in his range to begin with (ATs/AJs).

    The question is, on balance, whether the value you get from hands you beat on the turn is greater than the risk of running into Qx.

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    Old 05-10-2017, 10:57 AM   #3
    flamekiddo25
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    Re: How to play pocket rockets when villains range is ahead of you OTF

    flop is fine, turn i would prob just x/c.
    pre you can make it a little bigger to 850-900 but 800 is fine also
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    Old 05-10-2017, 10:57 AM   #4
    spand42
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    Re: How to play pocket rockets when villains range is ahead of you OTF

    I kinda like the way you played it so it's interesting why your reg friends think bet folding flop, and then turn is better.
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    Old 05-10-2017, 11:13 AM   #5
    Agharazi
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    Re: How to play pocket rockets when villains range is ahead of you OTF

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by flamekiddo25 View Post
    flop is fine, turn i would prob just x/c.
    pre you can make it a little bigger to 850-900 but 800 is fine also
    Hey, good point on preflop 3b. But I usually 2.5x it IP regardless of my hand value at the moment when I become extra aggressive. And this was just that

    I mean I 3b 2.5x IP with my strong and weak range.
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    Old 05-10-2017, 11:14 AM   #6
    Agharazi
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    Re: How to play pocket rockets when villains range is ahead of you OTF

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by spand42 View Post
    I kinda like the way you played it so it's interesting why your reg friends think bet folding flop, and then turn is better.
    Yeah, I am not unhappy with the way I played. The only question is - is that the optimal play OTF. Is there a better line? Like to we prefer to bet/fold or bet/call as an example
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    Old 05-10-2017, 11:17 AM   #7
    Agharazi
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    Re: How to play pocket rockets when villains range is ahead of you OTF

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Darth_Maul View Post
    Yeah that's a terrible flop for AA - you don't even have backdoor flush potential.

    The turn is really interesting. The only hands in his range that pulled ahead are QQ/AQ/KQs but you just pulled ahead of sets he's slowplaying, and the Ace may give him some 2p hands that he was afraid to bet on the turn, if they were in his range to begin with (ATs/AJs).

    The question is, on balance, whether the value you get from hands you beat on the turn is greater than the risk of running into Qx.

    Sent from my SM-G920W8 using Tapatalk
    I excluded ATs and AJs from his range, but I think AJs might make sense, considering he noticed how aggressive I was at that moment. So, probably we can include AJs into his flatting range here, not sure about ATs.

    Here, what I was confident about OTT - whatever happens, I never fold now, because I can't fold top set just because out of all the combos 25% are straight giving combos I mean, the chance of losing was a lot less than a chance of winning. What do you do OTF?
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    Old 05-10-2017, 11:26 AM   #8
    Darth_Maul
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    Re: How to play pocket rockets when villains range is ahead of you OTF

    The flop is definitely a check - If you bet and get raised, you're not going to be happy calling or getting it in. Then I would call to see what the turn brings. A Q gives you the straight and you can x/f on lots of threatening cards.

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    Old 05-10-2017, 04:04 PM   #9
    bellyfrog
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    Re: How to play pocket rockets when villains range is ahead of you OTF

    I would check call this specific turn and see a river.
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    Old 05-10-2017, 08:51 PM   #10
    Agharazi
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    Re: How to play pocket rockets when villains range is ahead of you OTF

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by bellyfrog View Post
    I would check call this specific turn and see a river.
    Belly, why would you check/call the turn? What are you expecting by the river to make a decision? I mean, do you ever fold a top set here? I kind of think that turn is a clear bet/call, as there is literally no river which would make you c/fold. If you can collect value from both turn and river, see no reason to check there. Unless of course I am missing something, which could be true. May be the only reason to check here is if my villain has 76s or similar and has absolutely no way to call my delayed CB. Obv he wouldn't call my 3b w any crap
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    Old 05-10-2017, 09:23 PM   #11
    bellyfrog
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    Re: How to play pocket rockets when villains range is ahead of you OTF

    I just can't see the guy calling with any hands that you beat, and by checking you can get them to overvalue their lower sets, 2p and maybe even get a bluff out of a wild player sometimes. If you're never folding which I can understand then I think letting them put the money in is better.
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    Old 05-10-2017, 10:00 PM   #12
    bellyfrog
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    Re: How to play pocket rockets when villains range is ahead of you OTF

    Basically I think it's one of those spots where although his value range is extremely thin, it doesn't really matter that much because I don't think he's almost ever going to be bluffing here so if the money starts going in your probably behind.
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    Old 05-11-2017, 01:29 AM   #13
    Captain-Hindsight
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    Re: How to play pocket rockets when villains range is ahead of you OTF

    x/c turn. if he bet the pot I could even see folding
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    Old 05-11-2017, 02:36 AM   #14
    Captain-Hindsight
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    Re: How to play pocket rockets when villains range is ahead of you OTF

    betting flop is okay but small 30% ish
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    Old 05-11-2017, 09:11 AM   #15
    Yeodan
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    Re: How to play pocket rockets when villains range is ahead of you OTF

    Assuming your range on villain, I think the flop is a check/fold and the turn is even more so.

    99-AA, AQ+/AQs+

    99 won't raise you on the turn, probably won't even call you pre
    TT, JJ, KK, AQ, AK most likely won't check the flop
    That only leaves QQ which has you dominated by the turn.

    Betting the turn pretty much puts you on a straight, a set or two pair in villain's eyes, so he's probably not bluffing here and realizes how strong your hand is.
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    Old 05-14-2017, 12:51 PM   #16
    Agharazi
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    Re: How to play pocket rockets when villains range is ahead of you OTF

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by bellyfrog View Post
    Basically I think it's one of those spots where although his value range is extremely thin, it doesn't really matter that much because I don't think he's almost ever going to be bluffing here so if the money starts going in your probably behind.
    I think I disagree with you on this, bro. He is easily putting his money in w a smaller set if we start betting. I mean I understand your point, but if we check he might actually check back his two pairs and sets, which we didn't collect enough value from. In this spot, I am not folding ever, then what's the point of checking, if you are not folding anyway. Are we not losing value?
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    Old 05-14-2017, 12:53 PM   #17
    Agharazi
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    Re: How to play pocket rockets when villains range is ahead of you OTF

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Captain-Hindsight View Post
    x/c turn. if he bet the pot I could even see folding
    What are you basing your fold on? Did you do any analysis of the spot? How many hands he pots with beat you and how many do you beat? I don't think this is a constructive opinion. Please elaborate
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    Old 05-14-2017, 12:57 PM   #18
    Agharazi
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    Re: How to play pocket rockets when villains range is ahead of you OTF

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Yeodan View Post
    Assuming your range on villain, I think the flop is a check/fold and the turn is even more so.

    99-AA, AQ+/AQs+

    99 won't raise you on the turn, probably won't even call you pre
    TT, JJ, KK, AQ, AK most likely won't check the flop
    That only leaves QQ which has you dominated by the turn.

    Betting the turn pretty much puts you on a straight, a set or two pair in villain's eyes, so he's probably not bluffing here and realizes how strong your hand is.
    Interesting. Why do you think villain is not checking this range OTF? All in all, do you narrow his range to QQ after he checked the flop? No other hands possible?
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    Old 05-14-2017, 03:03 PM   #19
    Captain-Hindsight
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    Re: How to play pocket rockets when villains range is ahead of you OTF

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Agharazi View Post
    What are you basing your fold on? Did you do any analysis of the spot? How many hands he pots with beat you and how many do you beat? I don't think this is a constructive opinion. Please elaborate
    he pots it with Qx and we don;t have enough money to draw to our boat
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    Old 05-14-2017, 04:45 PM   #20
    bellyfrog
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    Re: How to play pocket rockets when villains range is ahead of you OTF

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Agharazi View Post
    I think I disagree with you on this, bro. He is easily putting his money in w a smaller set if we start betting. I mean I understand your point, but if we check he might actually check back his two pairs and sets, which we didn't collect enough value from. In this spot, I am not folding ever, then what's the point of checking, if you are not folding anyway. Are we not losing value?
    You said you think the turn is a clear bet/call. My statement about the money going in is related to your line. If he shoves over your bet he is not bluffing almost ever, he has a straight 99% of the time and you just value owned yourself.

    I'm not that worried about "missing value" with AA on AKJT board.
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    Old 05-16-2017, 03:16 AM   #21
    killer_kill
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    Re: How to play pocket rockets when villains range is ahead of you OTF

    Bet the flop
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    Old 05-16-2017, 02:34 PM   #22
    onehandatatime
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    Re: How to play pocket rockets when villains range is ahead of you OTF

    x/c flop, x/c turn. The turn cards helps both yours and villains overall range, I don't want to be betting here it's such a bad board and we will value own ourselves a lot by inflating the pot if we bet. I'd opt to keep it small until the river.
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    Old 05-17-2017, 04:47 PM   #23
    robert_utk
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    Re: How to play pocket rockets when villains range is ahead of you OTF

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Agharazi View Post
    I think I disagree with you on this, bro. He is easily putting his money in w a smaller set if we start betting. I mean I understand your point, but if we check he might actually check back his two pairs and sets, which we didn't collect enough value from. In this spot, I am not folding ever, then what's the point of checking, if you are not folding anyway. Are we not losing value?


    You start with 45BB but idk how deep in the tournament you are. If it is quite early and a double up would greatly increase your tournament odds then your line is fine with me. However, once you are deep in a tourney I disagree with your analysis. By giving him a free turn, and then deciding not to be able to fold the turn, you are in fact losing tournament value which is the most important value. As played, the turn is a clear x/f, unless villain makes a mistake with a check back or small bet size. You tried to extract value in all the wrong places in the hand. This is my opinion.


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    Old 05-17-2017, 06:21 PM   #24
    SetSetter
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    Re: How to play pocket rockets when villains range is ahead of you OTF

    One nice about this hand is vills' range is rather narrow PF, which OP pointed out (roughly 99-KK/AQ+)

    OFT: In my opinion vill probably starts betting their sets on this flop for value/protection (especially after we underrep ourselves by not cbetting, and also because vill has position). Tough to say what vill does with AK (TPTK) in this spot, I would say if they didn't elect to GII with that hand PF then maybe they would also take a pot-controlling line OTF and check behind also. Not sure what to expect vill to do with their flopped straight hands (AQ) but my inkling is that they would probably try to trap us with a flopped straight. So that basically dwindles their flop-checkbehind range down to 99/QQ/AK/AQ, sometimes vill may elect to start bet their AK or AQ on the flop.

    OTT: The turn is tricky because we are roughly 58% vs. all combos of 99/QQ/AQ/AK, but if vill puts in any chips on the turn I think we can safely remove 99 from their range which has a disproportionate combo-effect on our equity which dips way down to 40%.

    For that reason I definitely don't like trying piling in chip on the turn, I prefer a check/call. If we check and vill bets 3/4-pot with QQ/AQ/AK, then we can make a profitable check/call with 30% calling odds and 40% equity, which leaves some decent room for error. I will say that we should definitely donk out OTR if we hit our boat/quads to realize even more equity (because it will be very tough for vill to find a fold with a straight even if the board pairs OTR).
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    Old 05-18-2017, 10:07 AM   #25
    Agharazi
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    Re: How to play pocket rockets when villains range is ahead of you OTF

    Thanks for input, everyone! I think all in all checking the flop is something everybody agrees on. The turn is a matter of discussion and further debate, but I think at the end I also believe that check/calling the turn if villain bets up to 2/3 pot is reasonable and the most +EV line here.
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