Hotter $11 final table - opinions please - MTT Poker Strategy

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Hotter $11 final table - opinions please

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04-21-2014 , 05:39 PM

unoturbo999

centurion

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 181

Final table - 7 left, villain 12/12/13 over 74 hands but didn't seem to really have any clue with multiple terrible shoves/calls leading up to the final table. He tanked for a while before pushing.

Payouts:
1st: $13,439.29
2nd: $9,851.60
3rd: $6,717.00
4th: $4,513.82
5th: $3,582.40
6th: $2,686.80
7th: $1,791.20

Opinions please:

Poker Stars, $10 Buy-in (250,000/500,000 blinds, 62,500 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 7 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: 4,515,855 (9 bb)
Hero (BB): 5,297,457 (10.6 bb)
MP1: 1,939,646 (3.9 bb)
MP2: 543,546 (1.1 bb)
MP3: 5,799,380 (11.6 bb)
CO: 4,785,738 (9.6 bb)
BTN: 3,986,378 (8 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A

5 folds, SB raises to 4,453,355 and is all-in

Hero??

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04-21-2014 , 06:07 PM

LoNgMan

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2014 Posts: 489

Pretty much a snap fold for me here with a 4bb and 1bb stack at the table. Kind of ICM suicide when 5th place pays pretty much double of 7th.

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04-21-2014 , 08:24 PM

MountainBum

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 2,154

Quote:

Originally Posted by LoNgMan

Pretty much a snap fold for me here with a 4bb and 1bb stack at the table. Kind of ICM suicide when 5th place pays pretty much double of 7th.

+1 and I doubt hes ever that light here given your reads.

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04-21-2014 , 09:18 PM

lukeluky18

stranger

Join Date: Apr 2014 Posts: 14

fold, next hand is 4bb on bb so face him all-in if fold to blinds, after the shorts will gone, maybe somebody extra except them, try to make a deal instead of playing super lotto

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04-22-2014 , 01:43 AM

Puzo

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 3,657

TurbosnapICMfold.

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04-22-2014 , 01:50 AM

jonnyshap

centurion

Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 192

results?

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04-22-2014 , 03:21 AM

unoturbo999

centurion

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 181

Before I give the results - how wide would his range need to be before this becomes a call (if it ever does becomes a call)?

Also, we have villain (barely) covered so should still be able to ladder up at least 1 spot on the pay ladder if we call and lose.

Finally, winning this hand should pretty much lock up a top 2 finish.

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04-22-2014 , 04:11 AM

Babanka

centurion

Join Date: May 2011 Posts: 104

ICM

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04-22-2014 , 06:03 AM

Parvex

grinder

Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 540

I made some calcs yesterday with ICMizer, can't remember the exact values (and have no more ICMizer trials left for today) but I think, once he shoves more than 20% or 25% you can probably call profitably. The future value of a big stack might add some additional benefit.

Also relevant: Do you expect him to tank w/ the top of his range?

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04-22-2014 , 06:00 PM

#10

unoturbo999

centurion

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 181

Thanks for the thoughts so far.

I didn't expect him to tank with the top of his range - I read it as weakness given previous play.

Thanks for the ICM link Babanka - are the blinds the wrong way around? When I run the same calculations I get a slightly different result and the blinds look different.

Results below - any further comments?

Poker Stars, $10 Buy-in (250,000/500,000 blinds, 62,500 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 7 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: 4,515,855 (9 bb)
Hero (BB): 5,297,457 (10.6 bb)
MP1: 1,939,646 (3.9 bb)
MP2: 543,546 (1.1 bb)
MP3: 5,799,380 (11.6 bb)
CO: 4,785,738 (9.6 bb)
BTN: 3,986,378 (8 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A

5 folds, SB raises to 4,453,355 and is all-in, Hero calls 3,953,355

Flop: (9,344,210) 6

(2 players, 1 is all-in)
Turn: (9,344,210) K

(2 players, 1 is all-in)
River: (9,344,210) 2

(2 players, 1 is all-in)

Spoiler:

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04-23-2014 , 04:15 AM

#11

Parvex

grinder

Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 540

Quote:

Originally Posted by unoturbo999

I didn't expect him to tank with the top of his range - I read it as weakness given previous play.

Then its an even clearer call imo. With him shoving 25% (incl. the top of his range) AJo is slightly +$EV to call here.

Quote:

Originally Posted by unoturbo999

Thanks for the ICM link Babanka - are the blinds the wrong way around? When I run the same calculations I get a slightly different result and the blinds look different.

What did you get? ICMizer gives me 81% SB shoving and BB 22% calling iirc.

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04-23-2014 , 05:31 AM

#12

mylifeisamess91

stranger

Join Date: Apr 2014 Posts: 9

Quote:

Originally Posted by unoturbo999

5 folds, SB raises to 4,453,355 and is all-in, Hero calls 3,953,355

Flop: (9,344,210) 6

(2 players, 1 is all-in)
Turn: (9,344,210) K

(2 players, 1 is all-in)
River: (9,344,210) 2

(2 players, 1 is all-in)

Spoiler:

LOL WHAT IS THIS I DONT EVEN......

i mean you got in your money good but got owned by a deuce seven... what can you do about it

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04-24-2014 , 03:42 AM

#13

unoturbo999

centurion

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 181

Quote:

Originally Posted by Parvex

Then its an even clearer call imo. With him shoving 25% (incl. the top of his range) AJo is slightly +$EV to call here.

What did you get? ICMizer gives me 81% SB shoving and BB 22% calling iirc.

Can you clarify those numbers? Does that mean that the SB should be shoving the top 81% of hands and I should be calling with the top 22% of hands? If so, shoving 72s isn't as much of a mistake as I though it was (top 87%). But given that he shoved this I would assume that he is shoving 100% here which means we should be calling even wider still.

Thanks for the input guys - FWIW I still came back from this to finish 2nd behind this luck box - he knocked out the players in both 5th and 4th by hitting the river with less than 15% equity. When we got heads up he had a 2.5:1 chip lead and I lost the first flip (K6s<22).

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04-24-2014 , 04:06 AM

#14

DrLifeIsGood

adept

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 751

Quote:

FWIW I still came back from this to finish 2nd behind this luck box

Grats on the nice score. I woulda folded this, tho, with the blinds coming through the two tiny stacks the next two hands, but I think it's actually closer than the first posters seem to think (because we wouldn't be out if we lost and the value of having a 20x stack given the other stacksizes is just so great).

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04-24-2014 , 04:12 AM

#15

Puzo

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 3,657

Quote:

Originally Posted by DrLifeIsGood

Grats on the nice score. I woulda folded this, tho, with the blinds coming through the two tiny stacks the next two hands, but I think it's actually closer than the first posters seem to think.

+1. Congrats OP. Solid score. If those calcs are right, I was so much wrong with my gut feel. I thought that we can't call without premiums when there is that 1.1bb stack and other guy with very short stack.

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04-24-2014 , 09:48 AM

#16

LoNgMan

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2014 Posts: 489

Yeah, guess I was off abit too. However, just feels so gross when you end up losing this and end up losing out at least an extra $900.

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04-24-2014 , 08:59 PM

#17

HUHandEH

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 5,458

You Rock

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04-25-2014 , 01:00 AM

#18

Dragons_Egg

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 4,861

Nice run. I'm jelly.

I'm sure ICM says this is a fold. But ICM doesn't account for what you can do with the chips gained if you win. Looking at the stack sizes you could defiantly do some raping & pillaging if you win this hand. Given this and also that your read is that the SB is a bit spewy, i'm inclined to say call in this spot and run good (which you didn't, so you obv need to work on that

)

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04-25-2014 , 10:59 AM

#19

dartagnan180

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2014 Posts: 3,512

Fold for me im also folding Aq here and AKo

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04-30-2014 , 02:06 PM

#20

Cbrewer4

adept

Join Date: Feb 2014 Posts: 750

Good read and call, but I do lean towards the original posters and say ICM makes this a fold. It sucks but in that spot the SB has ridiculous FE and can push extremely wide plus you get to push on the small stacks next and hopefully knock them out so that is fun! Sorry about that run out

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04-30-2014 , 02:33 PM

#21

KansasCT

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 10,074

gotta say it's pretty ballsy to shove there with 72 at a final table like this one

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