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Hard discussion on turn, should I fold? deep in BB 16.5$ Hard discussion on turn, should I fold? deep in BB 16.5$

01-30-2017 , 02:02 PM
Hello guys, posting a hand from today where I did loose, things got complicated on turn and I decide to shove.

First of all, this table was very weak, I took most pots down preflop and we did rarely get to show down. I do a loose open with QJo and gets a call from Villain. Villain is very aggressive, mostly its me or him that takes down the pot.

I see the flop and I think i'm ahead, he choose to bet in this spot, its big and I think he just want to take down the pot without any struggle from my side. I think that if he have a hand like KJ he would have 3bet me pre in this spot.

I call his 7000 bet and I get trips, he decide to to bet and I jam. Should I fold when I got trips here? If I didn't get the Q on turn i would have folded to his sizing.

What do you guys think?


    Poker Stars, $15 Buy-in (700/1,400 blinds, 210 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

    SB: 131,450 (93.9 bb)
    BB: 42,136 (30.1 bb)
    UTG+1: 16,574 (11.8 bb)
    Hero (UTG+2): 83,361 (59.5 bb)
    MP1: 27,965 (20 bb)
    MP2: 66,130 (47.2 bb)
    MP3: 31,724 (22.7 bb)
    CO: 33,317 (23.8 bb)
    BTN: 23,415 (16.7 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with Q J
    UTG+1 folds, Hero raises to 3,300, 5 folds, SB calls 2,600, BB folds


    Flop: (9,890) Q T 9 (2 players)
    SB bets 7,000, Hero calls 7,000

    Turn: (23,890) Q (2 players)
    SB bets 39,200, Hero raises to 72,851 and is all-in, SB calls 33,651

    River: (169,592) 2 (2 players, 1 is all-in)

    Spoiler:
    Results: 169,592 pot
    Final Board: Q T 9 Q 2
    SB showed 8 J and won 169,592 (86,231 net)
    Hero showed Q J and lost (-83,361 net)
    Hard discussion on turn, should I fold? deep in BB 16.5$ Quote
    01-30-2017 , 03:07 PM
    I think when V donks at a wet board like that he is protecting a reasonably strong made hand, especially with his large bet sizing. His overbet on the turn looks suspect as well. Tough spot but guess you have to think about what you're realistically beating when he overbets flop.
    Hard discussion on turn, should I fold? deep in BB 16.5$ Quote
    01-30-2017 , 03:43 PM
    Guy played it badly and showed he had a very strong hand. Think even though we're near the top of our range we gotta assign a range to the vil and I think we're behind even with trips.

    Makes me laugh that people are ripping 7k into 9k with the nuts... Too many scared of variance!
    Hard discussion on turn, should I fold? deep in BB 16.5$ Quote
    01-31-2017 , 10:41 AM
    I think it's fine. Worst case you still have 10 outs to win it (Q/T/9/J), sometimes 18 (K/8) and you may even be ahead by miles now and again. With the read that v has been very aggressive I'd gone broke on this hand too.
    Hard discussion on turn, should I fold? deep in BB 16.5$ Quote
    01-31-2017 , 04:52 PM
    Very tough spot against an aggressive opponent. Sucks that we block the straights too and block him from having better trips. I honestly don't know what I'm doing here and I would probably go broke here too (although I would not open this pre from that position unless the table was very very tight).

    For future hands please don't spoil the results of the hand in the OP, post your thoughts if you like but keep the result to yourself or spoiler tag it.
    Hard discussion on turn, should I fold? deep in BB 16.5$ Quote
    01-31-2017 , 08:54 PM
    HMM i dunno, when he donks both OTF and OTT, on a board as connected as this, Qx is never looking very good unless they drop the 3rd one OTR.

    I mean i dont even have the 3rd nut Qx, Im probably cussing and folding to the donk overbet OTT.

    but **** that turn queen makes that fold button very hard to hit but ive been burned on these type boards too many times
    Hard discussion on turn, should I fold? deep in BB 16.5$ Quote
    02-01-2017 , 08:56 AM
    1. If you say it's a weak table: He will very rarily 3Bet you with a hand like KJo in the SB, since you opened from UTG+2
    2. The fact that someone may be aggressive doesn't mean he will just spaz in 60bbs with random cards postflop. Try to think of which bluffs people can have, if any.

    The flop is fine I think. We have TP + OESD, although some outs might be tainted. However looking at his betsize he looks like protecting his hand rather than having a flushdraw himself
    The turn he bets 1,5x pot. I think shoving is the worst possible option you have here. He is rarely bluffing, he pretty much never folds to the 4:1 you are giving him, and when called, you will be beat most of the time.

    Where he could have a bluff on the flop (Jx, Fdraws+pairs) I think he rarily has that one the turn when he overbets like this. Also he can still have hands like AQ/KQ/QT,Q9s. Against we only have 27,2% equity.
    I'm not even mentioning hands like TT and 99. He might 3bet those. He could also just call them to try and hit a set. At first glance these where the hands that made most sence to me next to AQ and KQ
    Calling his overbet is also better than shoving in my opinion. If he is bluffing (somehow) we don't want him to to stop doing so. We will have to call off any non-club river, but shoving folds might fold out his (semi-)Bluffs (though probably calls because of the price)
    I think Folding is a reasonable option. People generaly don't call too light out of the SB (though he seems to be doing so when I like at the SD). Which means he usualy has better Qx than you, and those who are worse, made a full house most of the time.
    Also KJ is still in his range. He could easily be scared of the flushdraw or cards that would kill his action. Eventhough we block the J, I still think it is in his range.
    All in all: the overbet reaks of strenght, and we are near the bottem of our value range (AA,KK,JJ being worse, but AQ,KQ,QTs,Q9s,TT,99 are way better). So I wouldn't mind a fold here.

    Also try to consider your table next time. If you fold here you can go back to grinding it up with small pots, which is way better/easier than putting yourself on the line in these spots.
    Hard discussion on turn, should I fold? deep in BB 16.5$ Quote
    02-01-2017 , 09:50 AM
    Generally speaking it is a good principle to play small pots against stacks that can cripple/bust you in marginal spots.

    That said I'm not sure this is avoidable. You have an OESD on the flop and hit trips on the turn, so I don't see how you can fold. But calling the turn also means calling off more than half your stack. If you brick the river and villain put you all in, can you really fold the river getting 3:1?

    Sent from my SM-G920W8 using Tapatalk
    Hard discussion on turn, should I fold? deep in BB 16.5$ Quote
    02-01-2017 , 01:22 PM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ColdRoger
    Also try to consider your table next time. If you fold here you can go back to grinding it up with small pots, which is way better/easier than putting yourself on the line in these spots.
    This is good advice.

    I tend to fold this hand pre in this spot, but since your table was weak I don't mind the open. As played vs aggro it's hard to assign them a range in the SB. I guess the only solid reads we have here are the donk bet sizing which is a bit scary. Hard hand to let go of though.
    Hard discussion on turn, should I fold? deep in BB 16.5$ Quote
    02-01-2017 , 03:59 PM
    @coldroger

    My logic was that he could have a set or maybe two pair, I had one J so I thought that the chance that he have it was marginal. And the Jam was because if I did call it off i would get jammed on anyway, so I think that my only option is Jam or fold. I didnt like the jam in the hand, but this villain was capable of anything and I wouldn't be chocked if try to bluff me off my hand in this spot either.
    Hard discussion on turn, should I fold? deep in BB 16.5$ Quote
    02-01-2017 , 04:02 PM
    Thanks guy for the answers and inside, really appreciated.
    Hard discussion on turn, should I fold? deep in BB 16.5$ Quote

          
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