This is from a hand I played tonight in which I lost about 70% of my chips due to a bluff gone wrong.

### Situation

First level. The villain has been playing a lot of hands, most limped, i.e. J8 from UTG.
He seems to stab at a lot of pots as well, but may just have had a good run.
He has not bought the $10 addon yet.

The rebuy period will last for another hour.

### Hand

Blinds are 25/50 I have about 7900 chips so about 160BB. Villain as about 5500 chips (the addon would buy him 3000).

#### Preflop

I get dealt Q♠J♠ in the LJ, 3 people limped in front of me and I call.
Villain in the BU raises to 125 and all 3 call so I get good odds and call as well.

Pot: 625

#### Flop K♠ T♠ 4♦

I have a flush draw paired with an open ended straight draw.

All check, so do I and villain bets 225. All fold, I call.

Pot: 1075

#### Turn Q♥

I check, villain bets 500 and I raise to 2000. I'm not thinking my pair of Q is good, but am putting him on something like AK and
am hoping I can get him off it or make one of my draws and can get a big river bet paid off.
Basically I'm repping AJ here which makes sense from the action so far.

He thinks for a bit and very reluctantly calls, clearly he isn't happy with it.

Pot: 5075

#### River 8♣

So a total brick. He checks to me and I know that if I check here I'm loosing this pot.

However I've been representing a straight draw on the Flop (actually had one) and represented a made straight on the
Turn. So I decide to continue the story. I figure that if he's got AK it is really hard for him to call a large bet.

I think that he'll call if I bet 1/2 pot or below, but figure if I put him for his tournament life he'll let it go. I go allin for my remaining 5550 chips, however since the villain only has 3150 chips in front of him that is the actual bet.
The main reason I did this is because I figured the line made perfect sense.

Of course he could put me on a busted flush draw, but at the moment I found this move was good.

He tanked for a very long time and called to show TT for a set.

### Numbers

I risk 3150 to win 5075. I know if I get called I'm dead.

So how many times does this need to work to break even?

If he calls me about 62% of the time but folds 38% of the time I'm break even.
Therefore if this bluff works about half the time then it should be positive EV.

But does it?

### Good Bluff Situation?

Well first of all he was a loose player, so he's also more likely to call a bluff.
On top of that he could just rebuy if he busts, making him more likely to call and on top of that he still as a 3K chips
addon chip in front of him that he could easily use to get him back in the game for $10.

Additionally I put him on a worse hand than he had, AK I might have gotten to fold, but not a set.

So overall probably not a good play especially since we were playing with pretty big stacks and there were most likely
better opportunities coming up.

Wondering what others think about this ...

Wrong forum.


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I think raise / gii on the flop is a better line

I would raise pre and bet flop.
Why are you not doing this?
Don't be a passive fish like most live players!

The river bluff depends on villain.
Do you think someone playing that loose is capable of folding TP / Two pair hands?
He's obviously not folding trips or better.

It's usually not a good idea to try to bluff loose players ...
Unless they're actually really good and capable of folding, but I'd require proof of that first.
Most live players either fold too much or too little, your villain fits the "folds too little" profile much better, so don't try to bluff him.

I agree it is a bad bluff.

1) Wrong villain - loose/passives who limp J8 utg are also likely to be more stationy postflop. It also demonstrates that they're not really thinking players, which means they're not going to think about the situation the way you need them to.

2) Bluffs are generally much harder to pull off during a rebuy period because you'll get called wider.

3) A bluff where you're trying to rep exactly one hand is more difficult to pull off (compared to repping a flush, for example). It can be hard for people to believe you have exactly AJ in a spot like that.

4) You didn't raise pre, which is a hole in your story that you have AJ. A bluff has to tell a believable story all the way through.

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I looked around and couldn't find a better place to put it (I'm new to 2+2).
Could you please point me to the place where I should've posted it cAmmAndo?

Thanks for the pointers. I do agree with most your points.
I was thinking similarly after I reviewed the hand in more depth, but wanted to get some confirmation.

> I would raise pre and bet flop.

Yeodan you raise QJs with 3 limpers in front of you? Interesting, I'd feel it's too weak of a hand to do that with. Keep in mind that in these live games a raise will most likely be called by at least 2 out of the 3 limpers unless you make the raise huge.
So I'd be bloating the pot with a hand that's at the bottom of my range of hands I'm even playing in the first place.

> A bluff where you're trying to rep exactly one hand is more difficult to pull off

Good point Darth_Maul, I actually started thinking right after I went allin that if he's got AK (which I put him on), he's actually blocking part of the hand I'm trying to rep. I should've thought a bit harder before I made that move, but after deliberating for 20 secs I felt like either I do it now or never (if I wait too long it may look weak) and went for it.

> You didn't raise pre, which is a hole in your story that you have AJ

Makes sense, even though vs. 3 limpers in front I might not think AJ is strong enough to raise.

Honestly with AJ and limpers you're better off raising or folding. It plays terribly multiway.

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Also its a tournament, so the chips are finite and worth more than cash chips, so the math is different, ie bluff less. Also as mentioned, rebuy period is loosy goosy. But, if he crycalled with a set, you told your story well. Just a less than optimal scenario to be telling a story. Also, your pair has some showdown value, against a missed flush draw for instance. And yeah, raise pre.


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QJd is way to weak to raise over top of 3 limpers, either take a flop or fold. Raising the flop to around 400 and getting it in on the flop if he reraises. Barreling again on the turn for about 50-60% of the pot. On the river I would just check because you are still beating most of his flush draws, but you are blocking those so he most likely has a value hand, so I would check hoping it goes check/check or folding river.

Thanks for all the pointers. This really helps me put things in perspective and confirms the hunch that I had after the hand was over.
Thanks to all the feedback hopefully I'll have the same hunch before I act next time

Just for the future, since I was told that this is the wrong forum to post this, where should I post next time?

I don't know if there is a section specific to live tournaments, at first glance I don't see one. Seems like as good a place as any. Cheers.


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If it's too weak to raise don't play it ...
You're either good enough to play this postflop or you're not.
Not raising pre just makes this hand so much harder to play ...
Players behind you can limp with almost anything and if you hit TP you have no idea how good your hand is.

This is the correct place!

+1

The thread has been moved from another forum.

The correct one is Tournament Poker - small stakes MTT

That's too simplistic, there are spots where limping behind is the right play and this is one of them. QJs flops very well and plays well multiway. QJo you're better off raising or folding.

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You aren't playing QJs to make top pair while you are this deep stacked though.

We should be raising and not limping for sure.

Would raise pre

Bet flop

Jam turn

You dont rep aj here at all except AJss and that raises usually. Also how you gonna move him off Ak and get paid for value when you hit?

Raise the flop. Also did he really make it 2.5x pre vs 3 limpers?

Makes sense killer_kill.

Yep, he did, not sure what the plan was, maybe he figured since he's gonna have position he just wants to bloat the pot instead of chasing people out.