I'm guessing it's a fold but would appreciate some input


[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $6.82 Buy-in (1,750/3,500 blinds, 550 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37814251

MP1: 72,796 (20.8 bb)
MP2: 254,997 (72.9 bb)
MP3: 71,236 (20.4 bb)
Hero (CO): 161,669 (46.2 bb)
BTN: 50,038 (14.3 bb)
SB: 109,994 (31.4 bb)
BB: 36,738 (10.5 bb)
UTG+1: 89,099 (25.5 bb)
UTG+2: 46,256 (13.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 9 8
5 folds, Hero raises to 8,000, BTN folds, SB calls 6,250, BB folds

Flop: (24,450) A 4 Q (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets 10,856, SB calls 10,856

Turn: (46,162) 8 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets 19,855, SB raises to 71,378, [color="red"]Hero ??

Yes, fold turn as played. When you pair the 8 you're better off checking it back than betting. Would be nice to see a free card on river and realize some equity

Guess it's a fold, your opponent looks pretty strong here. It seems to me like 8 on the turn doesn't usually help you that much, so probably just check it and see what happens on the river.

Ditto

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Nailed it.

Sb should be raising aa and qq pre and raising 44 on flop so after flop action super rare he has a set on flop, aq also 3 bets pre so 2 pair flop combos come to a4 and Q4 (he folds this pre let's assume) so we have a4 only and only suited a4 are black so they most likely raise flop, it seems unlikely that he flats a4 on your flop bet then decides to put in a huge raise on turn with it

On turn it really makes no sense for him to turn a random ax or qx into a bluff so I am happily calling with the equity you still have, he can still be spazzing with a low ace but I think there will s more likely a complete bluff, 4x or a draw for u to be ahead especially vs his sizing

Yea hard to find his value here but the pfr can have so much value that it looks like a bad spot to bluff in

No way AQ A8o A4o can be ruled out based on pre when it's readless at this buyin.

I don't think population will auto 3b AQ pre or always x/r 44 otf so there are deffo some turn value combos.

Usually this turn x/r line is really nutted when we have flop range advantage but sometimes it will be a spazz, draw or total air. When v is at the middle of his range it makes no sense for him to turn it into a bluff as he has sdv. Our range has all the nuts in it and v's capped range doesn't so his play won't make it mathmatically viable in the long term, we can fold knowing that when we at the top of our range we are making more than the small times we have to fold when we at the bottom or middle of our range.

I think he's strong when he does one of those "non all in/ all ins"

I remember Doug Polk recommending checking back flush draws with SD value.

Yep Doug Polk does advocate this. Easy check back turn