Hi everyone. Interested to hear thoughts on this hand from Coventry Goliath. 3 day tournament, end of day 1. Blinds 2000, 4000 ante 400. Ten handed table. Hero has approx 190,000 chips and is 2nd or 3rd in chips at table. Villain is chip leader, covers hero by 50,000 approx. Been playing at table for about an hour, villain has not got out of line, seems to be a fairly straightforward player.

We have AsQs utg raise to 9500, called by villain in sb. Flop QQ5 rainbow. Sb checks, hero checks. Turn is Ten of hearts putting flush draw and straight draws out there. Villain leads out for 9500, hero raises to 31000 and villain shoves. Hero?

Thanks for comments

I snap call but that's how bad I am probably.

I call the 9500 and wait, since I have position. I'd assume he has a queen but would not get frisky with that board and so, after the all in of your opponent I would fold; you still have a nice stack to play on . This is not the time to go into a bluff catching mode for you're saying that your ace rules and probably not.

There are the myriad of possibilities that he may have including a flopped set but I can't call with the villain having more chips; if its a bluff then so be it. If he's as steady as you say then count on losing if you call.

First off, I'm assuming one of the Qs on the flop was a heart, not the 5. It matters a bit in the diagnosis of the hand.

Villain could have 55, TT, QT, or Q5, which all beat us. However, there are only 3 combos of each of those hands out there, which makes them unlikely. I'd rule out Q5 as well, based on your description of Villain. Probably not calling 7500 OOP with Q5o.
I also think the villain would refrain from shoving AI over your turn raise with a monster like these, since he wants a call with any of these hands. Raising 150k over your 31k seems excessive to me. His boats want to realize full value from trips, flush draws, and straight draws, and this bet doesn't accomplish that.

He could have many more combos of pairs JJ-66 that we are smashing, but I doubt he ships those hands as a bluff. Possible, but unlikely. Doubt he has AA or KK based on his line to this point.

He could have a number of combos of connected hearts that he's using to semi bluff but that we are way ahead of at this point: Ax, KQ, KJ, K9, 98, 56, 54.

Or, he is finally going for it with trips like AQ, KQ, QJ, Q9, which we are smashing, except for the split with AQ.

I'm calling, and I expect him to turn over A5hh, a straight flush draw, or a Q that we are ahead of. if he's got us beat, it's pretty much a cooler.
I think there's way too many combos out there that we are ahead of to fold this hand. If we win, we are ~390,000 and in a dominant position to make a run.

Him going all in with any of the hands that has you beat would be an absolute rubbish play. Him going all in with anything else is sub-optimal. So either way, he's making a mistake. I would snap call.

I would expect him to turn over KJh, which you're roughly a 2.5 to 1 favorite against, and that's pretty much the best shape he might be in realistically.

So what happened ?

My assessment of villain was that he was inexperienced and quite tight. With this profile I agree that TT, 55, and QT are in his range but not Q5. But given he is a weak player, I don't agree that he necessarily would slow play these hands on the turn. A weaker player could push the turn here.

I think he could make this move with a combo draw, so AhJh, KhJh, Kh9h, Jh9h. Even though he shouldn't bet KQ here for value, I think a weak player might overvalue KQ or even QJ. Not sure he is pushing bare flush draws or straight draws though. So I think he has about 8 combos we are crushing ( the above heart straightflush draws and say 4 KQ or KJ combinations (50% of 8) and 9 we are way behind TT, 55, and QT (3 of each). Given this assessment, it's a call.

Villain flips over 55 and I'm taking the walk of shame

Thanks for all replies

Well, villain definitely didn't know what he was doing. If he was ahead of you on the turn, he was at worst a 6-1 favorite no matter what you held. Why on earth would he be forcing a fold in that situation? Just a waste of a magic flop.

Of course, you happened to have pretty much the one hand he beat that could call there.