Flatcall BU Ad Jd BountyB $7,50
06-21-2017
, 01:13 AM
I am not sure about this situation.
Haven't see him playing a lot, and have just 40hands from him.
Is it possible they bet for value with possibly set K ?
The turn is is too expensive or is the flop already too expensive?
Poker Stars, $6.82 Buy-in (150/300 blinds, 40 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.
SB: 4,901 (16.3 bb)
BB: 10,853 (36.2 bb)
UTG+1: 13,803 (46 bb)
UTG+2: 8,714 (29 bb)
MP1: 19,967 (66.6 bb)
MP2: 32,917 (109.7 bb)
MP3: 24,947 (83.2 bb)
CO: 6,770 (22.6 bb)
Hero (BTN): 9,420 (31.4 bb)
Preflop: Hero is BTN with J
A
UTG+1 raises to 705, 5 folds, Hero calls 705, SB folds, BB calls 405
Flop: (2,625) K
8 4 (3 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 bets 1,575, Hero calls 1,575, BB folds
Turn: (5,775) 3
(2 players)
UTG+1 bets 2,599, Hero folds
Haven't see him playing a lot, and have just 40hands from him.
Is it possible they bet for value with possibly set K ?
The turn is is too expensive or is the flop already too expensive?
Poker Stars, $6.82 Buy-in (150/300 blinds, 40 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.
SB: 4,901 (16.3 bb)
BB: 10,853 (36.2 bb)
UTG+1: 13,803 (46 bb)
UTG+2: 8,714 (29 bb)
MP1: 19,967 (66.6 bb)
MP2: 32,917 (109.7 bb)
MP3: 24,947 (83.2 bb)
CO: 6,770 (22.6 bb)
Hero (BTN): 9,420 (31.4 bb)
Preflop: Hero is BTN with J
AUTG+1 raises to 705, 5 folds, Hero calls 705, SB folds, BB calls 405
Flop: (2,625) K
8 4 (3 players)BB checks, UTG+1 bets 1,575, Hero calls 1,575, BB folds
Turn: (5,775) 3
(2 players)UTG+1 bets 2,599, Hero folds
06-21-2017
, 06:53 AM
06-21-2017
, 02:57 PM
06-21-2017
, 03:03 PM
06-21-2017
, 04:21 PM
Villain can be reasonably certain you and BB do not have AA, AK, or KK, so can be comfortable playing 88, KQ and maybe even some combos of KJ this way, in addition to AA, KK, AK. Then add in some semi-bluffs like QQ-99, A8s, A4s and Kx.
So villain has
So your equity is no more than 9/46 * 18/50 + 12/46 * 22/50 + 15/46 * 2/50 + 2/50 = 23.8%. Pot isn't offering close to 3:1 and he won't bet most of the time you hit, so as played, fold turn.
The question is what to do OTF. I don't think you have enough fold equity against his range to shove, and you aren't getting direct odds to call. I'm not certain C > F here.
x.So villain has
- 3 combos of AA, 3 of KK, 9 of AK and 3 of 88 (18 combos total) where you have at most 9 outs
- 12 combos of KQ and 3 each of A8s and A4s, and maybe 4 each of KJ and Kx, plus maybe 2 of QQ-JJ (28 combos total) where you have 12 outs,
- maybe 2 combos of TT-99 where you have 15 outs, and
- perhaps a couple of combos of air
So your equity is no more than 9/46 * 18/50 + 12/46 * 22/50 + 15/46 * 2/50 + 2/50 = 23.8%. Pot isn't offering close to 3:1 and he won't bet most of the time you hit, so as played, fold turn.
The question is what to do OTF. I don't think you have enough fold equity against his range to shove, and you aren't getting direct odds to call. I'm not certain C > F here.
06-21-2017
, 04:37 PM
Quote:
Villain can be reasonably certain you and BB do not have AA, AK, or KK, so can be comfortable playing 88, KQ and maybe even some combos of KJ this way, in addition to AA, KK, AK. Then add in some semi-bluffs like QQ-99, A8s, A4s and Kx.
So villain has
So your equity is no more than 9/46 * 18/50 + 12/46 * 22/50 + 15/46 * 2/50 + 2/50 = 23.8%. Pot isn't offering close to 3:1 and he won't bet most of the time you hit, so as played, fold turn.
The question is what to do OTF. I don't think you have enough fold equity against his range to shove, and you aren't getting direct odds to call. I'm not certain C > F here.
x.So villain has
- 3 combos of AA, 3 of KK, 9 of AK and 3 of 88 (18 combos total) where you have at most 9 outs
- 12 combos of KQ and 3 each of A8s and A4s, and maybe 4 each of KJ and Kx, plus maybe 2 of QQ-JJ (28 combos total) where you have 12 outs,
- maybe 2 combos of TT-99 where you have 15 outs, and
- perhaps a couple of combos of air
So your equity is no more than 9/46 * 18/50 + 12/46 * 22/50 + 15/46 * 2/50 + 2/50 = 23.8%. Pot isn't offering close to 3:1 and he won't bet most of the time you hit, so as played, fold turn.
The question is what to do OTF. I don't think you have enough fold equity against his range to shove, and you aren't getting direct odds to call. I'm not certain C > F here.
Needing direct immediate odds to call a flop bet is a pretty nitty way to play poker. And if he does hit, it is unreasonable to assume that villain will just give up and fold. For hero to call the flop bet, the villain only needs to have QQ or better combos in range and its break even, and even in UTG+1 should have some AQs and JJ stuff in there as well.
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06-21-2017
, 04:50 PM
Quote:
Villain can be reasonably certain you and BB do not have AA, AK, or KK, so can be comfortable playing 88, KQ and maybe even some combos of KJ this way, in addition to AA, KK, AK. Then add in some semi-bluffs like QQ-99, A8s, A4s and Kx.
So villain has
So your equity is no more than 9/46 * 18/50 + 12/46 * 22/50 + 15/46 * 2/50 + 2/50 = 23.8%. Pot isn't offering close to 3:1 and he won't bet most of the time you hit, so as played, fold turn.
The question is what to do OTF. I don't think you have enough fold equity against his range to shove, and you aren't getting direct odds to call. I'm not certain C > F here.
x.So villain has
- 3 combos of AA, 3 of KK, 9 of AK and 3 of 88 (18 combos total) where you have at most 9 outs
- 12 combos of KQ and 3 each of A8s and A4s, and maybe 4 each of KJ and Kx, plus maybe 2 of QQ-JJ (28 combos total) where you have 12 outs,
- maybe 2 combos of TT-99 where you have 15 outs, and
- perhaps a couple of combos of air
So your equity is no more than 9/46 * 18/50 + 12/46 * 22/50 + 15/46 * 2/50 + 2/50 = 23.8%. Pot isn't offering close to 3:1 and he won't bet most of the time you hit, so as played, fold turn.
The question is what to do OTF. I don't think you have enough fold equity against his range to shove, and you aren't getting direct odds to call. I'm not certain C > F here.
I think the range is weaker for a cbet so folding the flop looks like a mistake.
06-21-2017
, 10:03 PM
06-22-2017
, 03:07 PM
Quote:
Hang on - this is a less than half-pot bet - pot odds are better than 3-1 - I make it we need 23.7% equity to call, so it's very close and we have to factor in some implied odds - so i don't think a call on the turn is bad.
I think the range is weaker for a cbet so folding the flop looks like a mistake.
I think the range is weaker for a cbet so folding the flop looks like a mistake.
So yeah, it looks like we have odds to call.
If you think villain's range is wider than what I gave, what else would you include?
06-22-2017
, 03:09 PM