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Small Stakes MTT Discussion and analysis of small stakes MTT strategy

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Old 02-05-2012, 04:27 PM   #16
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Re: Flat call with the nuts on the river???

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Originally Posted by dmelissourgos View Post
@everyone who says shove
Do you disagree with my calculations? Because if you don't disagree raising is better than shoving.
calculations are meaningless with arbitrary frequencies. you have like a pot sized bet left after he leads, minraising isnt going to get called or shoved on more often than just shoving
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Old 02-05-2012, 05:28 PM   #17
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Re: Flat call with the nuts on the river???

The probabilities are arbitrary but it doesn't matter if the numbers are close to reality, does it? And you HAVE to give him a little higher probability for shoving after you min-raise or flat call, than him calling your shove.
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Old 02-05-2012, 10:41 PM   #18
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Re: Flat call with the nuts on the river???

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Originally Posted by gamboneee View Post
calculations are meaningless with arbitrary frequencies. you have like a pot sized bet left after he leads, minraising isnt going to get called or shoved on more often than just shoving
nuh rly. the methodology is spot on. it's just that he hasn't expressed the full range of potential freaks for every instance.

trial and error.

Last edited by FortunaMaximus; 02-05-2012 at 10:41 PM. Reason: And the permutations are finite and reasonably small anyways.
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Old 02-06-2012, 05:06 AM   #19
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Re: Flat call with the nuts on the river???

How in the world can u ever flat on the river? Just shove and let him pay u off with AK+. Raising = min EV

Maybe you could fold tho? Just for the image LOL
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Old 02-06-2012, 05:07 AM   #20
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Re: Flat call with the nuts on the river???

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Originally Posted by FortunaMaximus View Post
it's just that he hasn't expressed the full range of potential freaks for every instance.
That would take days
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Old 02-06-2012, 07:07 AM   #21
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Re: Flat call with the nuts on the river???

Shoving > raising > calling > folding.
Why? you assume villain are calling x% of the time. In this case, in a tournament when your goal is to accumulate the most chips, you're shoving 100% of the time here. When villain calls a min-raise, he's likely to call a shove. I think that shoving is a bigger +EV move here, and shoving can get that 'WTF Hez bluffzorsing Me.. must call AK...', while a minraise is more like a : 'oh, he gotz it'.

Shove
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Old 02-06-2012, 11:33 AM   #22
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Re: Flat call with the nuts on the river???

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That would take days
lol obv. better to just play them out.
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Old 02-06-2012, 06:06 PM   #23
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Re: Flat call with the nuts on the river???

lol you guys are wild
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Old 02-06-2012, 10:22 PM   #24
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Re: Flat call with the nuts on the river???

Honestly the times they might shove over a flat they'll just a call shove with anyways. It's not like villain is ever going to bluff shove or do it lighter if you flat. Just fold the flop the 2nd time and shove river.
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Old 02-08-2012, 06:59 PM   #25
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Re: Flat call with the nuts on the river???

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Originally Posted by killer_kill View Post
Honestly the times they might shove over a flat they'll just a call shove with anyways. It's not like villain is ever going to bluff shove or do it lighter if you flat. Just fold the flop the 2nd time and shove river.
I guess he could shove with a set after my flat call like 1%-2% of the time. It's just a micro tour remember? Of coarse I could be wrong, it's just how I saw him playing...
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Old 02-08-2012, 07:51 PM   #26
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Re: Flat call with the nuts on the river???

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Originally Posted by dmelissourgos View Post
I guess he could shove with a set after my flat call like 1%-2% of the time. It's just a micro tour remember? Of coarse I could be wrong, it's just how I saw him playing...
SB will call with 2 pair AK, etc... more often than they shove and is probably just clicking buttons, don't need to make this into a probability question.

Also, +1 to fold flop.
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Old 02-08-2012, 07:56 PM   #27
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Re: Flat call with the nuts on the river???

Honest to god... stop justifying your FPS by thinking you're on another level but using logic mystifying its impossible to prove without so much effort.
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Old 02-08-2012, 09:15 PM   #28
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Re: Flat call with the nuts on the river???

Jesus Christ... What a stupid call on the flop SickSickSick

Shove the river.
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Old 02-17-2012, 05:22 PM   #29
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Re: Flat call with the nuts on the river???

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Originally Posted by dmelissourgos View Post
I guess he could shove with a set after my flat call like 1%-2% of the time. It's just a micro tour remember? Of coarse I could be wrong, it's just how I saw him playing...
I think you misread my post. I meant that any hand that is shoving over your flat is calling a shove anyways. Sometimes he'll flat stuff he'd call a shove with too! Like 2pr etc.
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Old 02-18-2012, 04:17 AM   #30
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Re: Flat call with the nuts on the river???

Considering the stakes, how committed MP2 seems to the hand, etc, I'm pretty sure MP2 is just as likely (or at least almost as likely) to call a shove as to call a smaller raise. So shove for sure.

That said, there are definitely certain situations where you do just want to flat call on the end with the nuts, even if that might sound like a really stupid thing to do. I think those situations are a lot more common in some limit games like 7-stud, but they come up often enough that it's worth knowing how to best play them. At low stakes, you might find yourself in a 3-handed pot, stuck between two people, where the first person to act is a lunatic who bluffs at everything on every street, and the person behind you is a nit who knows you won't raise without a real hand and is capable of folding. You make a full house on the end, and the lunatic bets a completely harmless board, and you are almost certain he has complete air, and you think the nit behind you has something like 2 pair. If you raise, the nit will fold 100% of the time, and the original bettor, who is probably bluffing, is also almost always folding, so raising normally wins you nothing extra. But if you call, the nit with two pair is probably calling too, so you win an extra bet.
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