So I'm playing the Saturday Micro $3.30 on Pokerstars and we are just on the second level. The HUD info is pretty much useless as I have only about 30 hands on each Villain. The only thing I can mention is that MP2 is playing in almost every hand and bets a lot so he is pretty LAG and playing his hands poorly. SB is passive I guess, since I have never seen him raising.

MP2 has played 578 MTT's with ABI of $2.03 and losing $168.83. He is winning the same amount in SnG's though.

SB has played 290 MTT's with ABI of $1.20 and losing $239.28.



So here is the hand;





[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $3 Buy-in (15/30 blinds) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #11786852

Hero (BB): 5,400 (180 bb)
UTG+1: 2,115 (70.5 bb)
UTG+2: 5,415 (180.5 bb)
MP1: 2,460 (82 bb)
MP2: 10,925 (364.2 bb)
MP3: 3,955 (131.8 bb)
CO: 2,950 (98.3 bb)
BTN: 2,880 (96 bb)
SB: 3,090 (103 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 5 3
2 folds, MP1 calls 30, MP2 calls 30, MP3 folds, CO calls 30, BTN calls 30, SB completes, Hero checks

Flop: (180) 2 4 J (6 players)
SB bets 60, Hero calls 60, MP1 calls 60, MP2 raises to 690, 2 folds, SB calls 630, Hero calls 630, MP1 folds

Turn: (2,310) 7 (3 players)
SB bets 390, Hero calls 390, MP2 calls 390

River: (3,480) A (3 players)
SB bets 1,125, Hero ???


The call on the flop is because of how deep both me and MP2 are, while SB calls too.

So basically the question here is if I should min-raise (even any other raise you can suggest) or I should flat call and try to get a call from MP2. Since his call is more chips than SB's all in, it was a pretty weird spot for me. His huge raise on the flop indicates a set or 2 pair so I guess we could induce even a raise after flat calling on the river?

mp2 played the hand so weird that its hard to put him on range of hands here, id prefer to raise to ~3.6k, think your hand is well disguised and sb seems pot commited.

dont really like your call on flop and turn, especially on the turn mp2 will raise big again more often than not

Fold the flop.
As played shove the river.

actually mp2 could have something like J9 / JT here, after both of you call his huge raise otf hes unsure where he stands and only flats turn...
still prefer a small raise to a call on the river, since a call by mp2 wouldnt earn you more chips than a raise (which atleast sb most likely will call), a large raise/shove will most likely just make mp2 fold.

this and neither decision is close

Well, this morning that I had a little more free time, I did the math and I think I solved it. Here:

First about the call on the flop. According to pot odds to make the call I need 27.27% chance of winning but I only have 24% to make the straight. However, with 2 opponents in the hand I will definitely get a few more chips so I guess the implied odds give us what we want. And yes, once again justifying our donk move with the implied odds. :P
But, seriously, if anyone has an objection to this, lets discuss it.

For the optimal river decision, things are more complicated. We can not calculate anything accurately, so the result will be an probabilistic approach depending on the moves of our opponents. Here it goes:

1st case we raise (min-raise):

10% chance that MP2 will call the min-raise to 2250 chips. We win 10% x 2250 = 225 chips from MP2. Now, 99% we will get 855 chips from SB so 20% x 99% x 855 = 170. So 225 + 170 = 395 chips.

5% chance for MP2 to raise us all in to 4290 either with a set or with a bluff, so we get 5% x 4290 = 214 chips plus 38 chips from the SB (5% x 90% x 855) equals 252 chips.

In the remaining 85% MP2 folds and 99% we get only the chips from SB which is 719.

All these together make 395 + 252 + 719 = 1366 chips in the river if we min-raise.



2nd case to go all in:

I give 3% to MP2 to make the call and then the SB will put it in most of the time so 3% x 4290 = 129. For the SB 3% x 90% x 855 = 23. Total 152 chips.

In the remaining 97% that MP2 does not make the call, the SB puts the rest of his chips about 99% so 97% x 90% x 855 = 821 chips profit.

Total 152 + 821 = 973.



3rd case we flat call:

25% MP2 calls, so 25% x 1125 = 281 chips

5% MP2 goes all in so 5% x 4290 = 214. Plus the chips in the SB that he puts in the middle about 90% of the time after the all in from MP2: 5% x 90% x 855 = 38.

In the remaining 70% MP2 will fold and we'll get SB's chips which is 598 (70% x 855).

Total 281 + 38 + 598 = 917.



My conclusion is that all in and flat call is almost the same while the min-raise is a better move. I know that the numbers are arbitrary but there is little difference if we change a number because of combinatorial probability. But if you believe that any probability is totally unrealistic, then tell me to change it and see what will come out. If, for example you tell me that MP2 does not have only 5% chance to go all in in the first case, but 20%, then the numbers change. But I don't think I have fallen so far out somewhere. I hope you got to read this line and not be bored somewhere in the middle, so we can discuss it.

Dont really understand how you assigned those probabilites...

Agree though that mp2 will raise us on the river anyhow if he indeed suddenly decided to slowplay his set / AA on the turn, this is very unlikely though

if he overplayed a marginal hand otf then he wont call a shove but might call a smaller raise

if he was bluffing then he will fold anyway (again agree with you that there is a chance that villain could bluff shove over our flat / small raise; dont think its higher than 1% though..)

so yes raising is better than shoving

Rai to ~2.7k seems about right here.

These probabilities are arbitrary but at least I hope they are near reality. If you see something being totally unrealistic please tell me to tune my calculations. Don't you think the process is right though?

I don't think i could fold the flop.
However i think that while we're getting good odds after the sb flats that there are two things to consider.
A) It's very possible that ott the mp can shove very often and we're not getting odds for a straight draw in one street.
B) I really think that the sb has a set. He can;t be afterr the same straight draw, the board is rainbow and if he had a jack he could shove a strong one against such a strong raise and fold a weak one. Also he donked very small.

But this is just micro tournament. The donk bet on the turn can mean anything.

ρε πατριδα, the donk bet can mean anything on one hand, but the flat on the big raise (2x the pot) doesn't show anything weak.

FTW...Your own title should tell you ... seriously.

THIS!

Fold flop, shove river.

@everyone who says shove
Do you disagree with my calculations? Because if you don't disagree raising is better than shoving.