6man hyper bubble, flop OESFD, Villain 5x pot jams... - MTT Poker Strategy

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6man hyper bubble, flop OESFD, Villain 5x pot jams...

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05-02-2017 , 03:54 AM

trent32la

banned

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 1,476

Not a SNG player mainly, but had a pretty cool spot come up on the bubble of a 6max hyper SNG today.

Payouts are 65/35, Stack sizes are

Me (BB): 600
Villain (SB): 650
Player 3 (BU): 550

Button fold, SB limps, I check 8d7d in the BB.

Flop (Pot 100): 9d Ac 6d

Villain jams in 550 effective.....Is this a snap call with our OESFD knowing he always has Ax here and it's the bubble with all nearly equal stack sizes?

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05-02-2017 , 03:56 AM

LeaksSuck

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2012 Posts: 1,859

Nice one!
Didn't calculate it, but should be a fold.
If you don't have the programs to calculate it, you could also do so with a simple ICM program by duplicating the situation as jam preflop by villain to ranges with the same preflop % as your % vs his range on that flop, it's the identical decision then.

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05-02-2017 , 04:06 AM

trent32la

banned

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 1,476

Quote:

Originally Posted by LeaksSuck

Unfortunately I only have a program to calculate preflop ICM spots, however I will definitely take your idea and just put it in ICMizer as a preflop jam spot.

After running the numbers in Equilab the spot is much closer than I thought $EV wise.

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05-03-2017 , 11:36 AM

murstyle15

centurion

Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 147

Why is there only 1800 Chips at the table? The Hypers i play typically have 3000 Total.

I would be hard pressed to fold an open ended flush draw even if the ICM told me to. Its just the gamble in me.

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05-03-2017 , 01:29 PM

Colin252

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 518

I don't believe he always has Ax here - not that it likely makes much difference to your hand in this particular spot to be fair.
I'm guessing from your tone that's what he showed you when you called, but I would try not to be results oriented.
He doesn't limp a lot of A x here, sure some, but nowhere near half the ax he gets dealt pre, on top of that how much ax open jams this flop, not much I think.

It'll happen sometimes, but more likely is random spaz.
As a thought experiment ask yourself this:
If I had 32o as the BB here, and villain bets 100, would I be happy to bluff raise?

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05-04-2017 , 01:47 AM

Rusemandingo

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 14,067

Site/Buyin/blinds/reads?

leaning fold. Raise pre could be good if villain is limping wide. Im guessing its 25/50 wo antes?

Ace on board not being diamond means he has Axs diamonds in his range and also A of diamonds where he can backdoor you. Though you do have those 2 nut outs (assuming he doesnt have them in his hand.)

Last edited by Rusemandingo; 05-04-2017 at 01:52 AM.

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05-04-2017 , 02:00 AM

trent32la

banned

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 1,476

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rusemandingo

Site is Carbon, there's no antes in their hyper-turbo SNGs. Buyin is $7. Blinds are 25/50, reads are that villain has been limping a high percentage of SBs and has also shown down Ax in a previous spot where he limped from the SB.

After running through the #s this spot looks like a close fold.

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05-11-2017 , 11:14 AM

LektorAJ

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2014 Posts: 7,826

Does it even make much difference whether he always has the A or not? We're never ahead anyway and if he has a higher flush draw well we gain 6 pair outs but lose 7 flush outs so that's pretty much a wash.

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05-15-2017 , 10:20 AM

Bkpokerkid

enthusiast

Join Date: Jun 2016 Posts: 91

Sounds like he's the favorite about 70% to 30% with a set against you not exact but a good estimate that's a fold now look at your pot odds your calling 550 to make 1200 2/1 odds that's not higher than your chance of winning showdown id say that's a definite fold..

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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05-20-2017 , 03:36 PM

#10

Pop.

grinder

Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 423

stop being a nit and snap call that jam

have some heart

live a little

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05-25-2017 , 12:59 PM

#11

p2 dog, p2

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 7,536

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bkpokerkid

a set

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