Originally Posted by IminUroutKFP
I'm pretty sure that 2100 is a perfectly fine 3b sizing, especially ip against the original raiser. Checking the flop though is dumb, definitely lead out, if they all still get it in then you can let it go cause you are rarely ahead of all 3 and even if you are it's gonna be hard to fade all that with 1 pair that is definitely gonna be against at least an over or 2 usually. I think leading and folding to all 3 shoves is fine
I agree with this logic except for one key idea, which is going to sound a little bit loose, and a little bit crazy- but I think it's an interesting idea worth debating so feel free to flame away if you disagree : )
Without any background on the players or their stats, I think alot of the time the player in middle position is open shoving with a fairly wide range- it's a decent sized pot that would increase his stack by nearly 50%, and he knows that the short stacks behind him will have put their tournament life on the line to call, and that you as the big stack would risk taking a pretty big hit here, and are probably going to pass most of the time with the best hand.
Sure he might make this play with a bigger pocket pair, but I think most of the time those hands are going to lead out or check raise instead to get some value instead of risking losing everyone.
It's a good spot for him to significantly propel himself forward with an acceptably small level of risk of being called, based on his stack size in relation to the other players in the pot.
But his stack is [I]also[I] the reason why it's a profitable play for you to call here. He has the other two covered by a good margin- you can afford to call and lose to both shorter stacks, and still make enough back from the player in MP for what's almost
a break even situation. I think you're short about 1 and a half k. If your hands good for the win you win a ginormous pot, double up and jump way out amongst the chip leap!
In addition, you might call and find one of the shorter stacks does have one of the top three hands, but i think with their chip stacks alot of hands are getting it in here with med pockets, ace 8/2/3 hands, 89, 8t and high cards- all to gamble for value- and you should too! You might have to fade like coby briant, or you might be playing catch up on the small stacks, but I think you crush the open shovers range giving you insurance on the play, and I think you're ahead of the shorter stacks often enough for it to be worth a call. Worst case scenario you lose to all three still have about 50BB left and a reasonable chance of playing your way back into contention.
I can see significant prize pool equity when you win here, but I haven't bothered to check the ICM numbers so maybe I'm wrong. I certainly don't think i'm way off though, and while it might not be a play for everybody (sure you're in a good spot with a your current stack, there's no shame in taking the conservative route and finding a better spot to chip up), I think it's a spot where you can take a shot at gaining a commanding position in the tournament at an acceptable level of risk- your tournament life isn't even on the line, and the only way you take a significant dent in the hand is if you can't beat the open shover. Ship it baby lets gamble