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Small Stakes MTT Discussion and analysis of small stakes MTT strategy

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Old 05-09-2017, 11:33 PM   #1
bellyfrog
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Bluff line Big 4.40

What do you think about this bluff line? Is it profitable vs these players at these stakes? Not 100% but read on UTG is he is loose/aggressive over small sample. No reads on big blind.

Poker Stars, $4 Buy-in (30/60 blinds, 8 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37722332

MP3: 10,240 (170.7 bb)
CO: 4,731 (78.9 bb)
Hero (BTN): 4,413 (73.6 bb)
SB: 5,184 (86.4 bb)
BB: 6,041 (100.7 bb)
UTG+1: 6,376 (106.3 bb)
UTG+2: 4,120 (68.7 bb)
MP1: 7,504 (125.1 bb)
MP2: 4,862 (81 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with 3 3
UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 raises to 150, 4 folds, Hero calls 150, SB folds, BB calls 90

Flop: (552) J 2 6 (3 players)
BB checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero checks

Turn: (552) 6 (3 players)
BB checks, UTG+2 bets 221, Hero calls 221, BB calls 221

River: (1,215) J (3 players)
BB checks, UTG+2 bets 486, Hero raises to 4,034 and is all-in
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Old 05-10-2017, 07:40 AM   #2
spand42
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Re: Bluff line Big 4.40

Your line makes no sense - Jx would presumably bet flop. 6x wouldn't go nuts like this on the river.

Your line is even more dodgy because there's a third player in the hand, although admittedly I wouldn't expect him to have a big hand too often.
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Old 05-10-2017, 07:45 AM   #3
bellyfrog
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Re: Bluff line Big 4.40

I can definitely check back my strongest jacks, AJ and sometimes KJ here, as an exploitable line against an aggressive weak player on a dry board. Obviously I'm not repping 6x here I'm only repping a jack. It might be a thin range that I'm representing, but I think I'm representing it pretty well especially against a player who I don't expect to be thinking in terms of ranges. To say the line makes no sense I think is overstating it quite a bit.

The big blind can fold sixes full here if he's a thinking player.
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Old 05-10-2017, 07:50 AM   #4
spand42
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Re: Bluff line Big 4.40

You underestimate Zeebo's theorem:

"No player is capable of folding a full house on any betting round, regardless of the size of the bet."
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Old 05-10-2017, 09:13 AM   #5
Darth_Maul
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Re: Bluff line Big 4.40

The size of your river raise makes it look very suspicious, though I don't know if the typical player at these stakes would think that way. If I were villain holding a hand like 99/TT there, I would think: "If he had a J, wouldn't he raise smaller for value? The shove there looks so bluffy."

There's another flaw in your thought process. Without any specific reads you say the bluff could work against UTG because he's not thinking about ranges, but then you say that BB could fold a 6 if he's a thinking player. If you don't have a specific read, you can't assume your opponents are both thinking and not thinking players.

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Old 05-10-2017, 03:55 PM   #6
bellyfrog
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Re: Bluff line Big 4.40

I agree about the sizing however we don't really have a choice if we do want to bluff here, if we raise to any normal size UTG2 is likely to snapcall with A high. The whole purpose of the shove is to fold him off A high and sometimes pocket pairs higher than 66. His range consists of a massive amount of A highs and broadway hearts which I feel like he's going to snap fold to this sizing.

I'd like to understand why what I said is a flawed thought process. My read on UTG2 is probably 75% solid which is all you can ask for at these stakes in tournaments sometimes. All I know about BB is he's playing 17/17 over 6 hands way too small sample to assume anything but at first glance he would appear to be a regular player, not crazy. The comment about BB can fold a 6 is just that, a passing comment. This bluff is not designed to make him fold a 6 lol. I think he's folding pretty much everything else though most of the time.

Having said all of this, I'm still not sure if I like the play that much, hence why I'm here asking about it. They did both snap fold, but that doesn't sway me either way.
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Old 05-11-2017, 06:18 AM   #7
Colin_Piddle
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Re: Bluff line Big 4.40

Quote:
Originally Posted by bellyfrog View Post
I can definitely check back my strongest jacks, AJ and sometimes KJ here, as an exploitable line against an aggressive weak player on a dry board. Obviously I'm not repping 6x here I'm only repping a jack. It might be a thin range that I'm representing, but I think I'm representing it pretty well especially against a player who I don't expect to be thinking in terms of ranges. To say the line makes no sense I think is overstating it quite a bit.

The big blind can fold sixes full here if he's a thinking player.
It's the big 4.40 not a $100 level mtt. Most players are going to be thinking if you had a jack you'd bet it on the flop. It's a super risky play given UTG +2 could easily have a 6 given the action. Any thinking player given your line would call with mid pocket pairs here fairly easily.
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