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The Big  - 44 with 16bbs last 38 players - Open shove or raise fold? The Big  - 44 with 16bbs last 38 players - Open shove or raise fold?

07-24-2014 , 07:00 AM
We are deep running for a big payout.

Which is the optimal play on the last 38 players on Big $22?

7handed its profitable to shove 44 but being playing for a huge payout do you prefer open shove with 15.7 bbs or prefer raise fold? Pay attention that the blinds were fishy! SB was a 29/27 (92 hands) and BB was a 43/29 (21 hands).

Thanks

[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $20 Buy-in (4,000/8,000 blinds, 1,000 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 7 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #29100371

CO: 202,236 (25.3 bb)
BTN: 165,170 (20.6 bb)
SB: 252,444 (31.6 bb)
BB: 157,830 (19.7 bb)
MP1: 65,028 (8.1 bb)
Hero (MP2): 125,320 (15.7 bb)
MP3: 686,530 (85.8 bb)[/b]

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 4 4
MP1 folds, Hero ?????,
The Big  - 44 with 16bbs last 38 players - Open shove or raise fold? Quote
07-24-2014 , 07:18 AM
What is your image to the table?

I hate mr/folding with this stack size so... shove or mr/call > fold, but I think it is a lot closer than it looks.

If I was in CO/BTN I wouldn't think twice about shoving.
The Big  - 44 with 16bbs last 38 players - Open shove or raise fold? Quote
07-24-2014 , 07:26 AM
don't like rr/fold it looks like burning money cause players behind can push a lot of brodways so you will fold fliping hand many times, imo its much better to rr/fold here with a hand like qjo which is to weak to push but you have some blockers for repushing range of opponents behind you. I Think that pushing here with 44 is ok, you can take 44 or 33 as a bottom of your range- you have to remember that probably calling ranges in this tourney are little bit tigher than optimal so pushing little lighter especially on late positions should be ok
The Big  - 44 with 16bbs last 38 players - Open shove or raise fold? Quote
07-24-2014 , 07:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DjHitzz
What is your image to the table?

I hate mr/folding with this stack size so... shove or mr/call > fold, but I think it is a lot closer than it looks.

If I was in CO/BTN I wouldn't think twice about shoving.
I was playing a 20/20 in about 70 hands on this table. All hands played and gone to showdown were strong hands.
The Big  - 44 with 16bbs last 38 players - Open shove or raise fold? Quote
07-24-2014 , 09:00 AM
I'd be looking up top at the payouts, probably looking for a reason to just stuff it in.
The Big  - 44 with 16bbs last 38 players - Open shove or raise fold? Quote
07-24-2014 , 09:02 AM
Shove. If there were some 8/5 nits in the blinds we could mr/f.
The Big  - 44 with 16bbs last 38 players - Open shove or raise fold? Quote
07-24-2014 , 10:51 AM
Shove ya
The Big  - 44 with 16bbs last 38 players - Open shove or raise fold? Quote
07-24-2014 , 03:29 PM
yeah have no problem shoving this. You have a few re-shove stacks in LP and on the BB , which makes me want to shove this even more rather then r/f.
The Big  - 44 with 16bbs last 38 players - Open shove or raise fold? Quote
07-24-2014 , 06:43 PM
Think I'd open fold.
The Big  - 44 with 16bbs last 38 players - Open shove or raise fold? Quote
07-24-2014 , 06:55 PM
Probably just shove don't mind open folding though
The Big  - 44 with 16bbs last 38 players - Open shove or raise fold? Quote
07-25-2014 , 04:52 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dragons_Egg
Think I'd open fold.
Welcome back, Mark! do you think our edge is still big enough with 15bb, that we can pass +ev spot like this and try to find juicy spot to double up in next 1-2 orbits?
The Big  - 44 with 16bbs last 38 players - Open shove or raise fold? Quote
07-25-2014 , 05:25 AM
Feels nitty but i think folding is best, snap shoving 66 and probably 55 tho.

Reason being blinds being fishy {on the calling side} means this just doesnt get through enough
The Big  - 44 with 16bbs last 38 players - Open shove or raise fold? Quote
07-25-2014 , 07:54 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bumpnrun
Feels nitty but i think folding is best, snap shoving 66 and probably 55 tho.

Reason being blinds being fishy {on the calling side} means this just doesnt get through enough
As pointed do fold 44 76handed its super nitty!

Normally when the blinds are not fishy i open fold. But this time i prefered to shove because its a profitable shove and the blinds were fishy.

Run into TT from the big stack. The BB probabily would have called with 33 because he folded/showed. GG..
The Big  - 44 with 16bbs last 38 players - Open shove or raise fold? Quote
07-25-2014 , 11:36 AM
Open shove seems right, folding seems painful
The Big  - 44 with 16bbs last 38 players - Open shove or raise fold? Quote
07-25-2014 , 09:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Puzo
Welcome back, Mark! do you think our edge is still big enough with 15bb, that we can pass +ev spot like this and try to find juicy spot to double up in next 1-2 orbits?
I guess. I'm usually more happy to take a marginal 3b spot with a 15 BB stack than a marginal open. I'm not really panicking yet with a 15 BB stack. I'm mindful of it, but not panicked.

I'm thinking more that if shoving is +EV (not disputing this) it can't be very much and it's going to be pretty high variance. I try to avoid high variance spots if i think i wouldn't be giving up too much EV in passing them up. I'm all about sanity preservation.

But yeah, depends a bit on the table and how big an edge you think you have over the other players.
The Big  - 44 with 16bbs last 38 players - Open shove or raise fold? Quote

      
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