Merge - $0+$0|<> NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP+1: 109,518 (VPIP: 16.50, PFR: 11.88, 3Bet Preflop: 11.43, Hands: 103)
CO: 422,846 (VPIP: 23.81, PFR: 4.76, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 63)
BTN: 367,797 (VPIP: 24.32, PFR: 18.92, 3Bet Preflop: 15.79, Hands: 74)
SB: 525,344 (VPIP: 15.38, PFR: 13.89, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 40)
BB: 479,423 (VPIP: 26.46, PFR: 20.33, 3Bet Preflop: 9.74, Hands: 508)
UTG: 670,379 (VPIP: 66.67, PFR: 33.33, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 3)
UTG+1: 305,422 (VPIP: 15.49, PFR: 9.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 142)
Hero (MP): 264,271

8 players post ante of 1,200, SB posts SB 6,000, BB posts BB 12,000

Pre Flop: (pot: 27,600) Hero has A T

fold, fold, Hero raises to 26,500, fold, fold, fold, SB calls 20,500, fold

Flop: (74,600, 2 players) 4 2 3
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: (74,600, 2 players) 2
SB bets 22,883, Hero calls 22,883

River: (120,366, 2 players) 9
SB bets 41,000, Hero raises to 213,688 and is all-in

only info I have on V is that prior to FT, 6 handed, he min-opened 22 utg on a 16bb stack, got 3b to a standard sizing by a TAG-ish reg in CO, and 4b jammed. which in my opinion is super spew.

turn might be a fold here, idk. getting a great price, have the wheel draw and OC's, and this is probably a stab with worse at least some of the time.

river he makes a small v-bet and i cram in his face. i have a theory that making ppl call off for large amounts at FTs with meh holdings is generally +EV. thoughts?

I think c-bet the flop is fine, we have decent equity and the best hand most of the time.

Even though i agree that making people call off a lot is usually +EV at final tables, our line makes no sense. What are we repping? Maybe AA but i still feel like we don't check the flop that often.

Just feel like most decent players will call it off here, like what value hands do we take this line with?

The only hand that makes sense here is 99 imo. I don't think we check back a set or 2pair on such a connected board. I'm next to never jamming river with AA simply due to the fact that we are never getting called by worse unless V somehow has A9s or something. A lot of Vs range will be 22-88 but even then I think the 55-88 part will snap off a jam.

Your theory may be right most of the time, but when you consider villian as super spewy, he might not be the best target. I'd be more inclined to call here rather than raise with all the missed draws if he's bluffy enough.

Also i'm not sure why he is capped here? Aren't A5/22/33/44/99 within his range?

not gonna c-bet when we're never getting better to fold and we have good equity w/OCs + wheel draw.

I think we rep AA/KK reasonably well. We also can rep. flopped sets imo. We should have more 22-44 in our range than V -- I don't think he flats those pre with these eff. stacks.

I don't think 22-44 are in his range here that much when I'm opening off a 22bb stack and for more than a minraise to boot.

99 is definitely in his range, A5 I doubt it.

What I meant by capped range is just that he can't have better than JJ here and I can rep. QQ-AA imo.

I dont think we rep AA/KK or sets reasonably well at all, why would we check with these hands when the majority of his pre calling range will always call this flop, PP + Ax's
so once we check flop i feel our range is capped massively to Ax

would rather a c-bet and then 3 barrel if he calls, we rep QQ+ alot better this way

Why can't he have A5 or A2?

Yeah, you're right. But I don't think it's inconceivable that those hands could choose to take an alternate line as well. I guess part of my point is that whether the line makes sense or not, V is under a lot of pressure to make a call when he has no reads or history on me. That's the beauty of the final table...

You're right though.

No betting flop, not raising turn, I think we're the ones who are capped. I can't see TT+ playing this way.

So you're checking this flop 100% of the time ?

yup, and sometimes it can be an open fold.

I don't think there's any hand tp+ that i check along this flop with (maybe a straight a small % of the time, if I'm opening those hands).

yeah, you guys are right, this makes no ****ing sense. sometimes adrenaline gets to me.

you get snapped off?

^nah. he thought for a bit and folded.

What do you think that you folded out?

Nice bump.

55-JJ I'm sure.