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AQ TPGK facing aggression in ICM pot AQ TPGK facing aggression in ICM pot

10-31-2014 , 09:57 PM
Hi,

F2T with a typical payout structure 60 for 12th up to 1k up top. I am second in chips in the tournament.

Hero has been pretty tight and playing solid for a long time before turning on the aggression as we got shorter-handed and as my stack increased. I've taken a few 3bet spots, and got lucky to double up earlier ATs>AK in sb resteal vs button open.

I got dealt QQ the hand right before that one and won a huge pot by 4bet-shoving against current CO after he 3bet my utg open. That hand + my more recent aggressive image explain my flat pre. I was thinking they would start to fight back and wanted to play a pot as neither 3b/f and 3b/c was very appealing.

Post flop I decide to check/call, what do you think of C/r the turn to put a maximum of pressure on him ?

As played what do I beat on the river ? I am concerned by his sizing on the river obviously that looks very strong.
My other concern is that, since I have been active and 3betting a lot recently, villain probably discounts good aces from my flatting pre range.

PokerStars - $10+$1|2500/5000 Ante 625 NL - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (SB): 55.32 BB
BB: 58 BB (VPIP: 19.26, PFR: 17.29, 3Bet Preflop: 9.43, Hands: 137)
UTG: 1.54 BB (VPIP: 22.62, PFR: 18.99, 3Bet Preflop: 9.52, Hands: 616)
MP: 17.15 BB (VPIP: 16.12, PFR: 11.37, 3Bet Preflop: 1.15, Hands: 432)
CO: 33.04 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 17.78, 3Bet Preflop: 8.77, Hands: 136)
BTN: 29.82 BB (VPIP: 13.54, PFR: 11.70, 3Bet Preflop: 2.86, Hands: 96)

6 players post ante of 0.13 BB, Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.25 BB) Hero has A Q

fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 2 BB, Hero calls 1.5 BB, BB calls 1 BB

Flop: (6.75 BB, 3 players) A K 7
Hero checks, BB checks, BTN bets 2.7 BB, Hero calls 2.7 BB, fold

Turn: (12.15 BB, 2 players) 8
Hero checks, BTN bets 5.5 BB, Hero calls 5.5 BB

River: (23.15 BB, 2 players) J
Hero checks, BTN bets 19.5 BB and is all-in, fold

Spoiler:
BTN wins 23.15 BB
AQ TPGK facing aggression in ICM pot Quote
10-31-2014 , 10:14 PM
I hate hate hate flatting pre. You're in a sb vs button situation with an aggro image and AQ...would want to 3b and would be ok with a 3b/c pre

Don't like how passively you played it post. He could easily be betting AT for value OTF and I would probably raise there.

As played, his river bet is very polarizing but I think it looks at least as much like a bluff as a value bet. Tough decision but in game I'm probably calling.

Once you get this type of image you have to take advantage of it when you get good cards, and c/c'ing TPGK and then leveling yourself into a river fold is not taking advantage of it in my book. He absolutely is not putting you on a good ace here which could be why he's shoving river.
AQ TPGK facing aggression in ICM pot Quote
10-31-2014 , 10:39 PM
I see your point about 3b/c pre. It is definitely +cEV to do so but at this stage of the tournament and with my stack size I am not willing to take a very high variance flip for 30bb. Button's stats are pretty tight and he didn't seem to adjust that much for short-handed. Stack preservation was pretty important for me at that point as a big stack allowed me to take many uncontested pots.
I thought by 3betting I would make most aces I dominate fold and get shoves from AT+ and most pairs.

That's why I am fine to have a 3b/f range as well but AQ i feel is too strong to be in it and I think flipping vs a hand like 88 is -$EV (not to mention that ICM does not value the bullying value of a big stack).
AQ TPGK facing aggression in ICM pot Quote
10-31-2014 , 11:14 PM
If you're going to play AQ like this after flopping an ace (x/c, x/c, x/f) then you should just fold it pre.
AQ TPGK facing aggression in ICM pot Quote
11-01-2014 , 12:54 AM
3b pre and go from there.
AQ TPGK facing aggression in ICM pot Quote
11-01-2014 , 01:09 AM
I'd be reasonably happy to 3b/gii pre here, assuming a "normal" 25-40% BTN rfi. There's some ICM penalty if we lose, but with 25bb left and some shorter stacks it's probably not that bad. (disclaimer: that last sentence is a pure guesstimation)

Quote:
If you're going to play AQ like this after flopping an ace (x/c, x/c, x/f) then you should just fold it pre.
I dont really agree with this. It's ok to call down if there's no value in raising and it's ok to fold if the board runs out this bad.
We could raise the flop, but it's unlikely he's calling with Kx or weak aces, so we are basically only getting value from flushdraws and AT,AJ, which shouldn't even be that big a portion of his range. Raising the turn after the flush hits is basically turning our hand into a bluff, and the J otr helps a bunch of hands (AJ, KJ, something like QdT or even T9) that our hand is really only a bluffcatcher.

But really this is a 3bet/c pre. So much FE and his 4bet range should be wide enough in a BTN v. SB situation.
AQ TPGK facing aggression in ICM pot Quote
11-01-2014 , 12:40 PM
I agree with 3b/c here. in general, when you're this close to the ft, you want to maximize pressure on your opponents who are thinking, as you are that they reeeally don't want to be playing for all the chips and miss out on the ft.

If I didn't, I'd c/r this flop 100%, you get value from weaker aces, draws and low broadway hands will generally peel one for the gutter and/or the hope that you'll check and they can take it on the turn/river. Occasionally, hands like KQ/KJ will also come along as this flop doesn't look to have hit your range hard enough for you to be c/r for value much.

as played, river is probably a fold but if I decided to play the hand as a bluff catcher from start to finish, I'd probably call and catch the bluff.
AQ TPGK facing aggression in ICM pot Quote

      
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