PokerStars - $4.90+$0.60|2800/5600 Ante 700 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (MP+2): 188,475
CO: 7,960 (VPIP: 25.40, PFR: 17.80, 3Bet Preflop: 11.90, Hands: 129)
BTN: 462,046 (VPIP: 27.42, PFR: 16.13, 3Bet Preflop: 3.70, Hands: 63)
SB: 117,876 (VPIP: 14.93, PFR: 9.23, 3Bet Preflop: 3.70, Hands: 67)
BB: 175,769 (VPIP: 21.60, PFR: 15.32, 3Bet Preflop: 12.50, Hands: 125)
UTG: 152,143 (VPIP: 19.63, PFR: 15.64, 3Bet Preflop: 10.13, Hands: 214)
UTG+1: 131,726 (VPIP: 17.50, PFR: 13.16, 3Bet Preflop: 6.25, Hands: 40)
MP: 319,746 (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 20.00, Hands: 8)
MP+1: 260,998 (VPIP: 20.36, PFR: 11.81, 3Bet Preflop: 4.42, Hands: 281)

9 players post ante of 700, SB posts SB 2,800, BB posts BB 5,600

Pre Flop: (pot: 14,700) Hero has A Q

fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 11,200, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 5,600

Flop: (31,500, 2 players) K A 6
BB checks, Hero bets 11,340, BB calls 11,340

Turn: (54,180, 2 players) 9
BB checks, Hero bets 18,888, BB raises to 49,233, Hero calls 30,345

River: (152,646, 2 players) 5
BB bets 103,296 and is all-in, Hero calls 103,296

BB shows 9 9 (Three of a Kind, Nines)
(Pre 55%, Flop 9%, Turn 100%)
Hero shows A Q (One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 45%, Flop 91%, Turn 0%)
BB wins 359,238



studying again the hand I believe I sould check the turn to keep the pot to 54K and even if he bet the river a full pot I should have 115 K in chips to fight

Don't include results.

This is a turn check spot for sure. Hard to get 3 streets of value with TP and the bet opens you up to exactly what happened here. Plus you just fold out all the crap he might have floated.

Check turn, call river.

If we think we are not going to get x3 streets then we should think about checking flop to mix in some good hands into our check back range.

BB def range is going to be fairly wide so not too many turns are going to be super scary.

As played, its hard to see many bluffs take his line ott is so its a fold for me

Think A broadway hh is about all we beat when he raises turn. Maybe chop with AQ but he's not raising AJ or worse for value here and it's definitely a spot the population is underbluffing imo.

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I’d say our goal should be to have about 70-80% pot size bet left on the river here so I’d size slightly bigger on the flop and go with a rather large turn bet and then jam river.

As played it’s always one of these spots where they just always got it as it’s so heavily underbluffed by population and if I was blocking any hearts I’d just sigh fold with this hand but I’d probably end up accepting my fate here unless my stats convinced me this guy can’t bluff.


I don't think I get the point in mixing the top of our value range in as a bluff catcher when we will have worse Ax hands that are much better suited for this task. This just seems to be leaving value on the table against hands such as AJ?

^ agree

This is a bet-bet-jam if it runs out clean. Let vill worry about what can call 3 streets.

And hes not just gonna blast off with air when you check back AKx. Small stakes population has either the nuts or a strong pair there so all you're doing is letting him freeroll with gutshots and underpairs.

i didn't see a question in this post so i'll just comment on the hand. we should still be playing cEV here imo unless the money is super life changing for you (in which case pot control is a fine option).

default strategy here should be bet flop small (which you did) and bet turn bigger (say 55%+). if you really want to pot control then checking the turn is fine. pot control should be done on the turn imo so you can control the flop bet sizing (which is small) check back turns and call essentially any river bet or value bet the river yourself. if you check flop villian might blast off 2 streets and you loose control of the pot. personally, i'm betting flop 30% and turn 60% with your holding in this scenario.

when you bet small turn and get raised i would be calling. when the river blanks and V jams unless you think villian is a capable reg then sigh folding is fine. the population super deep in a 5 dollar MTT WCOOP is significantly under bluffing this spot (and you essentially have a bluff catcher).

oh, and yes, if it went bet/call, bet/call, on brick rivers i am for sure betting again (which with proper sizing is all in).

Pot control here is just an emotional crutch. There is nothing about AQo that makes it especially important to see a river, or showdown. In particular, AQo is drawing dead or near dead against vills value raising range. Now if it were AQ I'd understand the concern.

So you have a pure bluffcatcher. Call down or don't but don't leave money on the table with fearful checks because you feel entitled to see rivers and showdowns with your entire value range. Learning to fold is a far more useful tool than pot control.

i dont advocate pot control, as i said.

That was addressing OP. I agree with your posts, especially default sizing suggestions. Turn range has to be more polarised so the sizing should reflect.

ahhh my bad . i thought that was directed at me.

No, rather you should bet more OTF and don't stop OTT.

I'm not sure I understand why everyone is advocating barreling here. BB's range is going to be pretty wide preflop, and Hero's small flop bet will entice a float from many hands he beats. A turn barrel just shuts out all those hands and runs into the few hands that beat Hero. A turn check will often be interpreted by villain as, "Ahh, he doesn't have an Ace," and will entice stabs and even check/calls on the river from worse hands.

Villain almost never has a hand better than AQ on AKxx so he is faced with a dilemma where he has to either call down with worse often or fold later streets exploitably often. Tripling appropriately or even over-appropriately with bluffs will be highly profitable and you earn the right to do so by triple barrelling non ultra-nut hands for value (if he knows you either have quads or air when you jam riv he gets to do some callin')

What's less of a dilemma for villain: Opponents who check back turn and let him showdown tons of marginal hands and fully realise with gutshots.

What's less profitable for us: Inducing villain to accidentally play GTO by checking back turn. River probe is probably one of the few spots small stakes players bluff close to balanced. Now you've turned a strong value hand in AQ into a close to 0EV bluffcatcher if he bets. Only reason it's not 0EV is he will value bet some worse Ax, but those hands aside you have just killed the value of your hand when you could have used A2 which cannot profitably barrel

In these tournaments ($2.20-$5.50) I never check because they bet the pot and you are against a tough desicion .Villains always play long ball poker.
So I burelling until death with....deadly results lately.

It wouldn't be a tough decision at all, you check to entice a bet from all his worse hands. So the plan is to call whatever he bets.

Maybe the underbluffing is a result of the general stationy behaviour at these stakes in this exact situation - as displayed by OP ;-)

Seems like for the most part everything is fine about this hand until after he c/raises. At this level there are very, very few people that are raising in that spot with less then 2 pair, just doesn't happen so it should be a pretty easy fold.