I know it seems standard, but I seem to always get called by either AA,KK,QQ or AK and am dominated at the least from the start...starting to wonder if I should stop waiting for good broadway cards and just push a hand less likely to be dominated. Maybe my variance is just at a low point? My Cake stats show I am 4 for 23 my last short stack shoves with AQ, not counting the ones I overplayed it. It is and has been the single biggest hand I lose tourns on.

Hand#3009ADF96E000084 - $4 NL Hold'em Turbo T11401582 -- CASH -- $4.6 + $0.4 -- 10 Max -- Table 1 -- 40/200/400 NL Hold'em -- 2012/07/01 - 19:45:59
Dealer: Seat 6
Seat 3: ch (2,505 in chips)
Seat 4: P (8,320 in chips)
Seat 6: bp (1,310 in chips)
Seat 7: R (2,865 in chips)
ch: posts ante of 40
P: posts ante of 40
bp: posts ante of 40
R: posts ante of 40
R: posts small blind 200
ch: posts big blind 400
Dealt to bp [Ac,Qs]
Pea: folds
bp: is all in 1,270
R: folds
ch: calls 870
ch: shows [Kd Qd]
bp: shows [Ac Qs]
*** FLOP *** [Kc,9h,4c]
*** TURN *** [8d]
*** RIVER *** [9d]
***SHOW DOWN***
chey wins 2,900 with Two Pairs Kings and Nines

This is how it usually goes even when I am ahead......just so sick of AQ. Thoughts? Am I far overrating AQ when short?

always shove

Insta-snap shove EVERY time and be glad you woke up with a premium hand before you blinded out of the tournament.

[QUOTE=bptuneman;34047805]...starting to wonder if I should stop waiting for good broadway cards and just push a hand less likely to be dominated.

Exactly. Push wider. Hands like suited/semi connectors etc are often better than just pushing Arag as they're not dominated as often.

It sounds like you're waiting too long to push and getting blinded down. You're prob not 3bet/restealing enough either. When you're getting below the 20bb mark you should be looking for spots to 3bet jam.

Make notes on who's opening wide, who's raise/folding in LP and make these the targets for resteals.

Similar ranges apply i.e. hands that aren't dom etc.

yes




















EDIT: I am going to guess that you are on a downswing because you seem VERY pessimistic and results oriented.

Hands that the average player will call an 8bb shove with:

77+,ATs+,KQs,ATo+,KQo

AQ's equity against that hand range:

50.942%

This is equivalent to a coinflip.



That's great. Especially if there are any extra chips in the middle, like antes or blinds. With 50% equity (a coinflip), you need 1 to 1 odds. So if there were no blinds and antes, and you open shoved, and someone called with that range, you are still +EV. If you add in extra chips like the blinds and antes, you will be getting even better odds, especially if you only have an 8bb stack. If you only have an 8bb stack, every pot after the antes start will be at least 30% of your stack. (30% of your stack at a full ring table with antes)
Lets do the math.

You have 50.94% equity. So let's round to 51% equity.
The pot before you shove is 2.4 bb. That's 1.5 bb. Add 9 antes for each player. (One ante is typically 10% of the BB.) So 1.5 bb (blinds) + 0.9 bb (antes) is equal to 2.4 bb.

2.4 bb + 8 bb = 10.4 bb (This is the size of the pot you will profit if you win the hand. 2.4 bb is the antes+blinds. 8 bb is how much the villain has to call when you shove.)

Now let's calculate your pot odds. Take 10.4 bb and divide it by 8 bb (the amount you shoved for.) 10.4 / 8 = 1.3 to 1

That means you are getting 1.3:1. So you need less than 50% equity against the villain's calling range.

Let's convert the pot odds into a percentage.

Use this formula:

B/(B+P) = Percentage of Pot Odds

B = Bet = 8 bb (The amount you open shove for.)
P = Pot Size = 10.4 (This is the size of the pot if you were to win the hand.)

(8 bb) / (8 bb + 10.4 bb)
(8 bb) / (18.4 bb)
(8) / (18.4) = 0.43478 = 43.478%


This means you need 43.478% equity if they call for make it a correct play (Not exactly true for open shoving, This doesn't calculate the EV of a play, it just tells you the equity % you need if you are to make a call. For shoving it's slightly different because you actually gain chips each time someone folds. You are definitely getting 1.3 to 1, and that requires you to have 43.478% hand equity. )

You have 51% equity. So that's better than 43.478% equity. You are definitely getting good enough odds to make it a shove.

You may be playing your push/fold strategy way too tight. There are situations where it is +EV to shove ATC. For example, if you have around 10 bb with 10% antes in play at a full ring table, you can shove ATC on the BTN for it to be profitable. (This assumes the BB/SB's calling ranges are "typical" or "normal." AKA, they are calling a decent range of hands, not 90% of hands, although if you are shoving ATC, they should adjust and call a lot wider.)

Thank you, I appreciate the help. No not totally results oriented, just seems like that hand in particular was sticking out as almost never winning at showdown....I also think I tend to blind a bit too much waiting for better hands.....and expect AQ to win more often.....and the blinds at these Cake Deep/trbo's the blinds rise so quick that rarely does anyone have over 15bb's for long.....I can be sitting pretty at 21K @300/600......but the play is all mostly 5K-10K shoves making most hands a shove, call, or fold...and 20 hands later it is at 1K/2K, for example....my last one was:
1K/2K-200.....^32,500
10 3 (fold to 9Kshove)
A8o (fold to 30K shove)
82 -
Q7- (fold to 18Kshove and call)
76-
QJ-(fold to 2nd position shove, call and re-shove before I act)
36-(fold to 34K shove)
65BB-(fold to 17K shove)
22SB-(fold to 30K shove and call)
J7B- (fold to 22K shove)
3rd break...25th of 30/27 Paid down to 22K
Q3-
25-
72-
AQs- Shove @20K....call by Q9 and 77....Q3J9Q ... for 68K pot
Out 25th, I have hard time shoving any of those hands earlier, and that was after a round of the same ....104-95-J2-47-73-64-83-89-92 kinda crap I have a hard time calling a shove with.

Don't be results orientated, nice hand. In this spot I would be shoving A5+/A2s+/K7s+/KT+ random suited connectors and broadways depending on the table dynamics.

Cool...understood...thanks again

Wangtankiki always on point!

Yes, if you're first to open, snap shove.

FYP

ez fold cause guy had 3 outs and binked

DERP HURP HURRRRR