Ignition, $10 Buy-in
Blinds: 50/100

*Vill: 34/29 over 35 hands

PREFLOP: VILL(100bb) opens 2x from MP, HERO(94bbs) calls 86 from CO, BB completes

FLOP (3way, Pot=6.5bb) 862 BB checks, Vill cbets 3bb, Hero calls, BB folds

TURN (2way, Pot=12.5bb) 4 Vill checks, Hero bets 5.5bb, Vill check/calls

RIVER (Pot=23.5bb) 7 Vill checks, Hero checks


A brief summary of my thought process: OTF, I was just trying to keep the LAGish vill in the hand so I just flatted (not overly worried about the BB/draws/etc.). OTT, I value-bet super small because I feel like vill is very weak and probably can't/won't call a normal-sized value bet, and I also didn't want to give a totally free card.

My biggest question is OTR, I always assumed this was a 100% value bet but recently I've been trying to test and analyze my assumptions. So my concern here is that vill is soooo weak by the river that I don't know if he is ever check/calling a 50% river bet enough with a weaker hand (probably less than 10combos total) and obviously I have to worry about vill trapping with 5x (and maybe a weirdly played set).

So I guess my broad question is: is it worth value-betting in spots where we rarely get called by worse, but sometimes run into slowplays/traps?

I think you gotta bet here. On the turn there are 2 fd + straightrdraws out there so your range got a reasonable amount of bluffs. To protect your bluffs you need to put this in your value range. I would probably choose a reasonable big sizing as well - like you would with your bluffs since you are rarly behind anyway. If you get checkraised easy fold ofc. 70% sounds good for me.

I would bet turn btw bigger as well.

Greetings
loliufg