New to table, no reads on villain. I think this was a tough spot for me, because once I call turn I have to GII I believe. His range looks super narrow and weighted to nutted hands, 6-7 combos of sets(7 if he flats JJ),J8s possibly. I believe he thinks I must be relatively strong to be raising utg, but since this might be a fish he might treat QJ like the nuts here. I decided to fold, because I didnt want to bust directly, but I think its close given that a good player would more often flat that flop with a set as its relatively dry. Thoughts?

yeah fold - too deep to be going broke with tptk

well that's a bad reason to fold.

were you referring to my post?

How is "It's too deep to go broke with TPTK" a bad reason to fold?

I'm never folding tptk 10bb deep. I happily fold TPTK to a lot of action 100bb deep.

in theory villians ranged should be capped without having hands like bottom 2, mid 2 and over pairs so we should be discounting heavily hands like

j3,38, QQ+

so it looks as tho his x/r range otf looks something like

33,88,J8,9T,QJ,KJ,AJ...

Early in a $5 buy in here im more temped to call flop as the field is more likely weak and fishy.. and V might be x/r worse hands more often.

If this was a $20+ tourny I can safely fold the flop and feel pretty good about my play

Certainly don't mind fold otf esp as we readless now, but yea agree dont want to be playing a 150bb pot with only TPTK unless we have reads to state otherwise

I agree with folding

yes I was referring to your post and yes, that is a bad reason to fold. you're not offering ranges or even thinking about them, you are just proposing this threshold for stacking off 100bb (we only have 75 btw) and for some reason tptk doesn't meet that threshold.

This is a really bad way to approach any hand. regardless of depth, you need to analyze actions of others in the hand, analyze their ranges those particular actions and react accordingly in the most profitable way. I play a lot of deepstack tourneys and routinely win 1000bb pots with tptk and worse through people overplaying worse.

Yep, you are right in a lot of stuff you say. But I can only really go on what OP gave us.

I've run stuff through Pokertracker for similar situations as above (e.g. TPTK doesn't hold up well when there is multiway action in deep pots on a very dry board, just like it doesn't hold up well when you raise pre, bet flop, bet turn only to get raised).

Using historical data is a great reason to set yourself some basic guidelines for poker.

One of the ones I have is "Don't go broke when you are deep on dry multiway flop, with lots of action with TPTK".

min raise, check call flop for reasonable amount like half pot to see the turn could be a different line.

you put 260 into the pot, and should fold, while you could put 80 then 180 OTF....just saying.

meh dont like this line that much tbh. We bet the flop to get value from mid PPs and weaker TP hands and we could then possibly check turn for pot control and vbet river or call bet depending on texture and player. Our hand is imo still strong enough to bet for value and if we check call we have almost no value hands which makes our range quite unbalanced for cbetting when we are bluffing.

I would fold here readless. However this is really good spot for sb to make a big raise take the pot down on the flop I would certainly consider it even if he puts us on qq+ he knows he can rep big on this flop . he knows it's very unlikely we have trips we would prolly try slow play especially on that board an after Btn calls pre an on flop he is not gonna put him on much nessaserrly . So IMO perfect spot for him to use is big stack make a move on flop that looks like it would hit him harder then any1 else repping trip 3s 8s or j8 risking 650 to win total pot of 1350 good spot for him to bluff at

Choosing to take your variance in the deep early stages is pretty ****ing bad.

sooooo many misconceptions built into this simple but far from correct post, about me, my style and the style of the biggest winners online or anywhere.

rather than address it all, I'll just say that being afraid to sit back, actually range a villain and do the work to figure out their line just cuz you won't put in more than X # of bb in with the best hand is pretty ****ing bad. and fwiw, I seem to do pretty ****ing good.

op, I really didn't want to derail your thread and haven't offered an opinion. I would likely not fold here to the initial c/r. From my perspective, nobody decent should be raising this flop often with a hand that beats yours (except for two pair) which leaves us with someone decent bluffing or semi-bluffing and/or someone not decent and if it's someone not decent, they're just as likely to be over-valuing something worse as they are to be going crazy with the nuts on the dryest board ever. it's a spot where at first glance your hand 'shouldn't' ever be good but when you go a bit deeper, you really almost have to be.

If I had called the original raise and btn flatted, I may actually end up levelling myself into a fold ott though, depending on btn's timing etc. and the actual turn card that rolled off.

I don't get it but I'm sure this is very witty, gj

I think we can call otf in a $5 tourney. And imo the best justification for calling is that the button called.