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Small Stakes MTT Discussion and analysis of small stakes MTT strategy

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Old 06-22-2012, 09:59 PM   #1
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99 Overpair on flop facing huge overbet

Hey guys, I'v been playing poker for about 4 years and for some dumb reason never joined 2+2 before now so here's my first post!

Anyway I had this spot in a $10.50 knockout, villain was playing 75/50 with 10% 3bet over about 20 hands, I had previously doubled up through him when he bet 2x pot on 975 board with JQ into my QQ.

I know calling his 3 bet OOP preflop was bad but I knew with this villain I would be stacking him if I hit a set. Just wondering was it bad to call almost a 4x pot shove on flop with an overpair? The history with the villain led me to calling but I was also thinking that maybe I shouldn't call as this villain would likely provide profitable situations in the future. Thanks in advance for any thoughts!

PokerStars - $5+$5+$0.50|60/120 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

LP: 2,375.00
CO: 8,840.00
BTN: 6,247.00
SB: 6,016.00
BB: 2,640.00
UTG: 10,890.00
Hero (UTG+1): 6,456.00
MP: 14,260.00
MP+1: 5,661.00

LP posts ante 15.00, CO posts ante 15.00, BTN posts ante 15.00, SB posts ante 15.00, BB posts ante 15.00, UTG posts ante 15.00, Hero posts ante 15.00, MP posts ante 15.00, MP+1 posts ante 15.00, SB posts SB 60.00, BB posts BB 120.00

Pre Flop: (315.00) Hero has 9 9

fold, Hero raises to 250.00, fold, fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 600.00, fold, fold, Hero calls 350.00

Flop: (1515.00, 2 players) 4 6 8
Hero checks, BTN bets 5,632.00 and is all-in, Hero calls 5,632.00

Turn: (12779.00, 2 players) Q

River: (12779.00, 2 players) 3

Hero shows 9 9 (One Pair, Nines) (Pre 19%, Flop 12%, Turn 5%)
BTN shows J J (One Pair, Jacks) (Pre 81%, Flop 88%, Turn 95%)
BTN wins 12,779.00
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Old 06-23-2012, 01:37 AM   #2
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Re: 99 Overpair on flop facing huge overbet

First, welcome to 2+2.

Second, there's nothing at all wrong with the call preflop - you're calling 350 to win the 1k in the pot already and the 6k left in villain's stack, so even using the 'rule of 20' which I think is terribly conservative, you have odds to call even on a pure set mine. Add in the fact that this villain is both spewier and looser than average, and I think folding pre is pretty terrible here.

Now, the problem is we missed our set! In my experience monstrous overbets are usually for protection - it's often how bad players will play an overpair vulnerable to high turns or rivers. Villain has very few top-pair hands in his range here - doubt villain is 3-betting A8 too often - and we don't beat any overpairs to this board. So against a normal semi-bad opponent, I think a call here is a bit optimistic, since we need to be right a lot of the time for calling to be good. Against this particular villain, though... I'd probably have trouble folding 99 here.

oh and PS - before someone berates you for it ( ) you shouldn't post the results of the hand, since it can influence replies

Last edited by kamikaze baby; 06-23-2012 at 01:43 AM.
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Old 06-23-2012, 01:57 AM   #3
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Re: 99 Overpair on flop facing huge overbet

flop is a fold.

pre is an ok call to setmine.

as long as you don't call these kind of bets otf or stack off every time a low board hits. Otherwise your rio are way too high to setmine pre

don't post results
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Old 06-23-2012, 06:24 AM   #4
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Re: 99 Overpair on flop facing huge overbet

Thanks for your replies guys, I should have figured about posting the results duh!

Oh ya I always thought it was 15x the total size of their raise your effective stacks was supposed to be to set mine profitably not the size of the bet you have to call so I guess I haven't been set-mining as often as I should! So I learned something huge from my first post, thanks guys!

Ya against any type of decent player I'm never calling the flop bet but I convinced myself to call against this donk (as you all now know :P) and was wrong! Thanks again!
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Old 06-23-2012, 07:33 AM   #5
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Re: 99 Overpair on flop facing huge overbet

wanna little bit more pre,call oop isnt bad here,
OTF i wanna fold,his overshove is too bad for us,we have to win very big % of the time to be +EV here :/ ....fold
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Old 06-23-2012, 07:50 AM   #6
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Re: 99 Overpair on flop facing huge overbet

fold... villain showed a ton of strength and you'll still be 40+ bb's behind after folding with a chance to get it in at a much better spot... even donks are aloud to get good hands sometimes
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Old 06-23-2012, 07:55 AM   #7
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Re: 99 Overpair on flop facing huge overbet

nothing wrong with flatting the 3b pre, good odds to see a flop and try to scoop a good pot if we flop our set + its not worth much of our remaining stack.

Flop play from him is just SOOOOOOOOOOO LOL, given its early id prob just muck it and move on, even if he has 2 overs we still gotta fade 6 outs for 100bb pot.
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