Hi v was 13/5 after 40, what would you do?

[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $6.82 Buy-in (50/100 blinds, 12 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37854968

MP1: 4,970 (49.7 bb)
MP2: 6,802 (68 bb)
MP3: 9,113 (91.1 bb)
CO: 11,760 (117.6 bb)
BTN: 12,741 (127.4 bb)
SB: 4,366 (43.7 bb)
Hero (BB): 4,166 (41.7 bb)
UTG+1: 9,996 (100 bb)
UTG+2: 6,453 (64.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7 8
7 folds, SB completes, Hero checks

Flop: (308) 4 J 8 (2 players)
SB bets 102, Hero calls 102

Turn: (512) J (2 players)
SB bets 219, Hero calls 219

River: (950) 2 (2 players)
SB bets 523, hero?

bump

Yuck.

I'd raise it pre, 87o isn't likely to hit big nor win at showdown if you hit small and end up in a spot just like this. If he limp-3bets I have no problem throwing it away.

I hate playing in unraised pots for exactly this reason - you have no idea where you stand. He is tight-passive in a small sample of preflop stats so he could have Jx, a slowplayed big pair, a better 8x, busted flush draw, small pair, or air. He has increased his bet size with each street, which looks value-ish. After calling 2 streets and a brick river, I probably call the third bullet.

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prob call, only really betting J or missed flush draw, more missed flushdraw combos than jack

Call. We still have plenty of bb's left if we lose. It certainly feels like he's value betting us. But we only lose to a J or better 8.

How do we feel about repping a J with a semi-bluff raise on the flop? It could look like a J defending against draws. If he calls, then we know we're behind most likely and can fold on future streets without much thought. It might induce a fold if he is holding air or something weird like Q4s (non-diamond).

In a bvb situation I wouldn't raise that flop with a J, nor would I raise the turn. If you have the nards your best spot for a bluff is on the river. But if we think his range is mostly Jx and missed draws, a river bluff would be pointless.

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If I were the SB and had a J, I am probably betting 2/3 or more on the turn. I want to pressure any FDs to fold. If the river bricks, we lead out with a value bet hoping the BB wants to show down with their 8x, but they will fold any missed draws. If a diamond comes, we're in a tough spot if they shove on us. We can't check a diamond on the river because that opens the door for them to jam and rep a flush.

Back to being the Hero, if we raise to 6-700 on the turn, and they call, we can safely fold the river knowing we're likely behind. But if we only call turn, and they lead into us again on the river, now we have a tougher decision to make for the same amount or more chips. Call 219 on the turn, 950 pot on the river, SB is going to lead out with half the pot or more. 700+ chips if we just call. If we raise turn, we get to control our risk and cap it at 700 or so chips. And we have a better idea of where we stand. We can win the pot if he folds turn. If we just call/call, we're crossing our fingers and hoping our 8 is better than his 8.

Our two pair is likely good here, but we need to get more information from V to figure out what they're holding.

This is an unraised pot, if you complete in the SB the BB fan have literally any two cards and will likely float with anything half decent when you stab at the flop. So flush draws are a tiny portion of his range. Besides, if you have trips and you think your opponent has a flush draw, you don't want him to fold.

No you don't, you should always bet or raise either for value or as a bluff - never just to get information.

You have showdown value on the turn with 2nd pair on a paired board. If you raise to rep the J, most of the hands you beat (air, small pairs) will fold and most better hands will call (only 99/TT might fold). So even though it may cost you the same amount, the benefit of calling the turn is that you give him an opportunity bluff the river with hands you beat.

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Very easy call down here and if your beat your beat, but I ain't folding mid pair on that board b v b

I'm ok with him folding here. If he does, we win ~700 chips with 78o. That's great. And I want to make it tough for 99 or TT hands to get to showdown. Although I have a hard time believing SB wouldn't raise pre with 99 or TT. It's possible he's trapping with those cards. In my opinion, that makes raising the turn that much better. We can potentially fold better hands and cap our risk with a raise. I'd rather win a medium pot with less risk than win a large pot with more risk.

The other side to raising the turn is how believable is our raise. A lot of people are going to think we're using it as a scare card (we are) and call. So we could only try this on players we've seen lay down hands. If he's a calling station, then we clearly can't pull this kind of move.

This is legit

But I also dont have problems w/ folding vs presumably tight opponent. Its a marginal spot for lower buyin tourney and we block a lot of draws missed. However most of our catchers will block draws on such wet texture.

I'd base it on his river stats if I had enough hands. I'd probably fold river with the info available.

When a tighter low buy in player makes sizings like this (small on flop/turn, bigger on river) it's usually value. Having the 7d blocks some of the straight and flush draws he could potentially be bluffing with and if he is bluffing, he should realize he blocks our draws. The river is a total brick, so he should expect us to call a lot. Seems like a value bet on the river.

pbb isolating pre guy with those stats, and pbb calling off if i check.

also try not to focus on blockers in spots where ranges are wide af

i think call. 7d blocker makes it pretty sick, but given pot odds we should be good enough here.

i think its completely reasonable to assume he will go three streets w / various bluffs on that board texture, making his potential bluffing range huge

Looks like a pretty standard call at first glance, but a super nit's 3 barrel range using these sizings, esp with such a brick river, meh I dunno. I think he gives up on most of his bluffs here.

40 hands isn't accurate tho

i've had 3 / 2 / 0 over 50 hands and i usually run like 18 / 12 / 6

That's true, but even a player running 25/23/11 is usually going to shut down on this brick river with his bluffs. He'd also probably shut down a bit on the turn since it favors hero's range so much when villain is bluffing. Hero can easily have Jx or two pair here. Most of hero's draws are going to raise the flop most of the time as well. Villain's bet sizings rep strength, Hero has a decent blocker, and some of villain's bluffs have reasonable showdown value. Plus, 13/5 over 40 hands is enough info to let me know this guy is likely a nit and not the type to 3 barrel with these sizings.

*edit - 18/12/6 is still pretty nitty imo and I would treat this hand pretty much the same. 13/5 is just an extreme nit

yeah hero has a pretty nut blockerwhich removes a bunch of combos.

imo its unreasonable to tag villan as a nit after 40 hands. we only have to be good 1 in 3.81 times, im too lazy to run the calcs rn but at first glance im fairly certain we smash this.

I saw this hand the other day and was basically like, meh ok I call. But, then I took a look at his sizings and board texture and reconsidered. Yeah, it's only 40 hands, but the info we have just helps confirm the other things I was looking at. And it's plenty to help form a decent decision when all the other factors are added in.

If villain has a hand like K3dd, Q9o, 65o, etc., this turn is pretty bad to continue bluffing, esp for this sizing. Any hand hero continues with on the flop is usually going to continue on the turn. Maybe he folds some gutshots and hero shouldn't have too many Ax. So, it doesn't make sense for villain to continue bluffing a card that is bad for his range and great for Hero's. The river is the biggest brick in the deck, so most of the hands hero calls with are going to call the river. Hero can fold hands like T9, Q7dd, etc., but villain should expect hero to raise the small flop cbet a reasonable amount of the time with those hands as well, so hero shouldn't show up with busted draws quite as often. If villain is bluffing a busted draw, then he should realize he is blocking a lot of the hands he is trying to fold out. Add those factors to the increase in sizing on the river (which is usually strength from weaker players) and the villain's overall really tight stats, and I think I can make the case for a somewhat tough river fold.

Which river stats (and at what value eg. Cbet river >60) do you use to determine if you would make the call?

I compare Bet River to WSDWBR (won @ showdown when bet river). If WSDWBR is low, they bluff a lot. If it's high, they hardly ever bluff. It takes a decent sample, but I play a lot with the same regs. I'd also compare the river stats with how often they cbet flop/bet turn, to get an idea of how aggressive they are and how much they like to barrel, etc. Aggression Frequency is also useful in conjunction with all of these stats.

Thanks, will add WSDWBR to my pop up.

You would need a massive sample of hands on a villain to make these stats meaningful.

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