Hey everyone. I've looked and read several 2+2 threads and can't find an answer dealing with variance, not even in the stickies.

So far I've roughly played 300 45man SnGs. That being a mixture of $1s and $3s; with an overal ROI of 60%

So onto variance. In the $3s I was running at 120% ROI until yesterday... where I had a 17BI downswing....bleh, dropping me to 80% overall for the $3s now.

Don't get me wrong... I always knew that 120%, and even 80% won't be sustainable in the long run. But I wasn't expecting a 17BI straight crapout in one day. BR wise it wasn't even a factor, as I'm still significantly rolled for the $3s. But it lead me to thinking?

What # of tournaments is considered a "Significant Sample?" In cash they say... "play 50k-100k hands"... what is thought of as a true sample for SnGs?

Second, if all I'm playing are MTT SnGs what's the largest downswing I should plan to expect?

Thanks,
LaRue

Just fyi, I had a run of 180 12$/45 mans and in the 180, I had 2 17ootm streak. So yea, variance can be a killer.

I am not an expert on any of this but someone once told me dont consider any poker sample to be valid statistically unless you have over 1000 samples at each buyin. I wouldnt even look at your numbers in anything until you have played over 1000 of them.

As you move up, you could easily have 80-100 BI downswings.

This is insanely stupid advice... and I'd like to see some proof or GTFO.

Lol.

Perhaps you should get a clue.

You're saying you've gone on an 80 BI downswing then in 45mans?

No, I don't grind these. But I know winning players who have gone on 200+bi downswings in the 180's, so they are definitely possible.

Jetblackx has played like 15,000 45 mans and knows what he is talking about.

You don't mention whether you talking about turbos or non-turbos, but I had this fun month:

P.S. Why are you being so antagonistic towards people who are answering your question?

P.P.S. In before "that's not an 80 buy-in downswing."

wow i do feel for you lol!you have got alot of pain to come,100-200 downswing is not a maybe its a fact the only question is when is it coming!also has no one warned you about the 1-2k games break even stretch ?lol you got alot to learn and alot more pain to come bud,if u think 17 games of losing is bad lolol i feel for ya bud.

Sorry, was hard to believe someone who had 78 posts and a new member. I felt he was just throwing up some random numbers to be an @$$.

In all due respect I was trying to throw what I saw as a BBV answer out of the thread.

Thank you for the graph. I'm simply just trying to understand what is a bad run.

Ty sir.

cant belive you said we can get big downswings jet, whats wrong with you.i thought this was a win win game only all our charts should look like tatta dam u jet

I've read 1000 as the standard sample size to evaluate ROI.

I'm not sure if anyone ever did a MTT analysis, but this thread discusses various downswings of STT's at various ROI's:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/36...ariance-73786/

My gut feeling is that there's greater variance in MTT... so the chances of various downswings is higher for MTT's than STTs.

Thanks Hextall, that was a good read for sure.

Ignorance is not just excusable, but basically human - after all we're all here to learn.

Acting like an #sshole is neither.

1,000 45 player SnGs should give you a pointer for whether you're a winning or a losing player (under the current conditions).

5,000 might give you some idea of how much you're winning or losing.

45s at the 1 and 3 don't have huge variance as long as you can play consistent abc poker, but if 17 buy ins is a ds to you, then yes there is alot of variance. I would say 5000 sngs would be ideal for knowing your true roi within a few percentage points. I have had plenty of 20-40 non cashes at both the 1s and 3s, and also have had 500 break even stretches and 500 game stretches where i have been at around 45-50 roi.

No, whats insanely stupid is telling a good 45 man reg that his advice is insanely stupid, DUCY?

Sharkscope Jetblackx or howdyfolks or even chauncy (in before thunderb4ll whine post) and take a look at the swings. 100bi swings arent farfetched at all, but swinging 50bi's on any given day is standard.

I'm not the grinder that those guys are, though I am trying to make progress, but just today I was down 32 BIs at the 6s. I wasn't even playing poorly. Just sometimes the cards don't go your way so I lost a lot of flips around the 10-14 player area which just cripples you. Because of today I am breakeven over the last 230 games.

Just an example of a recent downswing from a moderately winning semi-reg.

take the word downswing right out of your head and replace it with "VARIANTS"

I like that. A lot actually. I think you are looking for "variance" but I still like it.

/thread

please post more sir.

(not kidding, get more involved imo)

if 17BI downswing is hard for you, you should consider changing the game. The DoNs are great for a low variance grind imo. Also STTs have 100 BI downswings at most...

I think that even 5000 games will not give you your true ROI. If you take a look at the sharkscope graphs of some regs you will see that 200 BI downswings may occur, also 2000 games break even streches. So think about it, imagine you are running bad at the beginning of your grinding career and have a 2000 game breakeven strecht and then you run normal for 3000 games you are still almost 50% off your true ROI. So good luck and always keep in mind that MTT sngs are full of variance.

lol.