12 left and I am 1rst or 2nd in chips atm, been playing 50/45 since 7 handed or so. no one plays back at me, and when vilain call, they mostly check fold flops







hero?

I snap call

Need like 40% to call I think...it's a real toss-up iyam...I probably call but these overbets aren't always fos and are probably TP/2ndP more often than we like on this kind of textured JTx board...obviously I don't include any 2pair, etc, in villain's range, but alot of hands in villain's range are ahead of us + block some of our outs to the extent that I don't know if we have the needed equity to call.

My range for villain is QJ-AJ,KQ,QT-AT,98s,T9s, and even AQ. Alot of marginal-medium strength pairs + draws (couple dominated). I'm ruling out alot of out-there bluffs w/o better reads. I'm also ruling out 2pair+ hands, as villain gains no value and is likely not scared enough to overbet like this w/ those hands.

So against this range we're like 41% against that range, so a call is definitely arguable, but I think its pretty close and a fold isnt a hgue mistake at all.

If we wanna be really blindly liberal about assigning villain a wide range we can, but I think its w/o too much merit. Maybe I just haven't seen enough of these spots though.

throw in suited aces of hearts and you get a pretty easy snapcall. Also, this overshove-type play should be weighed away from top pair type hands and more towards garbage and draws. Especially vs an aggressive hero like OP.

~~~~~~~~~~~

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.550% 49.80% 00.75% 33033 497.00 { AQs-AJs, AhTh, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, As7s, Ah5h, Ah4h, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, 9h8h, 8h7h, AQo-AJo, AcTd, AcTh, AcTs, AdTh, AdTs, AhTd, AhTs, AsTd, AsTh, KJo+ }
Hand 1: 49.450% 48.70% 00.75% 32303 497.00 { AsKh }

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and if you're folding AK here you should be folding AT because

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.622% 50.92% 03.70% 35287 2566.00 { AQs-AJs, AhTh, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, As7s, Ah5h, Ah4h, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, 9h8h, 8h7h, AQo-AJo, AcTd, AcTh, AcTs, AdTh, AdTs, AhTd, AhTs, AsTd, AsTh, KJo+ }
Hand 1: 45.378% 41.68% 03.70% 28881 2566.00 { AsTh }