In a $15 freezeout with 17/172 left. I have 30.6k (7th in tournie) and blinds are at 600/1200. Villian has 47k to start hand. Im in SB and hes in BB. I have 85o, I make it 2x and he calls. flop comes 445 and i jam. At this point pot size is 5.6k and i have 28.8k.

Is this the correct play mathematically? whats the chance he has a better 5 or 4 here if we assume hes calling pre with any hand?

In play I understand this is poor as it risks tournament life even if it is a mathematical correct play but im not sure if thats even the case. BUTCHERED THE **** OUT THIS ONE.

hopefully someone can run the numbers- much appreciated

Cheers

First of all I'm pretty sure this doesn't belong in theory, but I'll post anyway. I'm gonna assume either 18 or 27 paid.

First of all, what position were you in that you raised with 85o? I"m guessing it had to be CU or BU, but honestly I'd tighten your range until your post flop decision making becomes better. It's pretty much never the right play to bet 5x pot (and I'm not going to even mention when it is the right play, since it seems like you need to learn the basics before you start making super weird exploitive plays against specific players.)

The BB is on a wide range here. I'm not gonna bother running numbers, but let's assume that his range includes only connects like 25% of the time. Of that 25%, he has a hand that can call you half the time and is ahead, a hand that fold a little less than half and a hand that can call but is behind a small amount of the time. He's folding everything with no connection to the board, except pocket pairs obviously.

The problem with your play is that even if it has a +EV (Which I doubt it does, although it may be slightly +EV) that it def. isn't the best, or even near best, play. First of all, until you can get amazing post flop skills, hands like 85o belong in the muck. Hell, at the stack sizes you have, unless you've got good reads on the blinds and are in position, it should still be in the muck even if you are a solid post flop player.

Second of all, a bet size of 1/2 to 3/4 pot accomplishes something similar. It folds out a ton of hands that didn't connect, although you keep in some of the weaker connecting hands (which can be a good thing.) Sure you don't win the pot as often, but you risk 6-12x less than a shove.

Frankly it's surprising that you'd post this hand here. It's a good thing you did, since it's a good step to be willing to take criticism, but you've got a long way to go, IMO.

Looks like you posted twice?

Anyway as i said before fold pre.

As played I would raise a little more than 2x pre, probably close to 2.3-2.5 and I would likely cbet the same or slightly more otf. If he raises I would have to reevaluate. Calling or folding would be player dependent.

If he has was playing ATC, your equity at the jam is about 65%, but that’s a pretty big if. From a chip perspective, any equity > 50% is +cEV and I would guess is +$EV as well in this case. This would call for a bubble factor analysis.

With regards to your specific question, the chance villain playing ATC has a 4x, 44 or 5y, where Y>8 is about 12.8%.

Since villain called your min raise, he likely has better than a random hand. Still, with the favorable flop, you’re probably still +cEV. Villain would have to be very tight, playing only a top 8% hand for your equity to be about 50%.

The justification (or lack thereof) for your pre-flop raise with 85o is another issue I’ll let others discuss.

Fold pre.