11$, TT overpair - MTT Poker Strategy

etw165 · 06-14-2012, 05:09 PM

11$ deepstack on stars (30 min blinds)
villain is 17/7, Af 4
flop might be a reraise shove?

Poker Stars, $10 Buy-in (200/400 blinds, 50 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #13220072

CO: 8,008 (20 bb)
BTN: 24,379 (60.9 bb)
SB: 17,819 (44.5 bb)
BB: 16,942 (42.4 bb)
UTG+1: 65,990 (165 bb)
Hero (UTG+2): 9,320 (23.3 bb)
MP1: 9,880 (24.7 bb)
MP2: 2,832 (7.1 bb)
MP3: 44,761 (111.9 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with T

T

UTG+1 folds, Hero raises to 931, 6 folds, BB calls 531

Flop: (2,512) 6

4

9

(2 players)
BB bets 999, Hero calls 999

Turn: (4,510) 3

(2 players)
BB bets 2,500

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V-Delaney · 06-14-2012, 08:48 PM

2500/c flop
Jam turn as played

Trent813 · 06-14-2012, 10:21 PM

Shove turn

**ssnyc** · 06-14-2012, 10:30 PM

I kind of want to jam flop

desperad0oo7 · 06-14-2012, 10:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ssnyc

I kind of want to jam flop

me too.

Foks · 06-14-2012, 10:44 PM

As played I like shoving OTF alot more than OTT. That call OTF should've slowed down alot of what we're ahead of OTF, so i think our equity is sh it OTT when he leads that big OOP and he's seemingly a weak player. I fold ott as played.

How many hands do we actually beat OTF? We're ahead of like 31 hands here (77,88,98s,T9s,A9), way behind 15, and about even w/ about 10 hands (ATs-AKs,JTs-KTs,KQs)

So we come out (24/31)+(1/15)+(5/10)

29/56 = +50% equity

I actually thought jamming OTF might be bad at first glance, but after running these numbers it seems like thats the right play if villain is indeed wide enough to play those marginal suited connectors + A9 hands against a 20-25BB stack. If we don't include those hands though I think shoving OTF might be bad.

desperad0oo7 · 06-14-2012, 10:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Foks

As played I like shoving OTF alot more than OTT. That call OTF should've slowed down alot of what we're ahead of OTF, so i think our equity is sh it OTT when he leads that big OOP and he's seemingly a weak player. I fold ott as played.

How many hands do we actually beat OTF? We're ahead of like 31 hands here (77,88,98s,T9s,A9), way behind 15, and about even w/ about 10 hands (ATs-AKs,JTs-KTs,KQs)

So we come out (24/31)+(1/15)+(5/10)

29/56 = +50% equity

I actually thought jamming OTF might be bad at first glance, but after running these numbers it seems like thats the right play if villain is indeed wide enough to play those marginal suited connectors + A9 hands against a 20-25BB stack. If we don't include those hands though I think shoving OTF might be bad.

what 15 hands are we behind to otf? I can only count 9

Foks · 06-14-2012, 10:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by desperad0oo7

what 15 hands are we behind to otf? I can only count 9

I was counting JJ, but i suppose that could be discounted by a combination or 2 if ud like.

desperad0oo7 · 06-14-2012, 10:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Foks

I was counting JJ, but i suppose that could be discounted by a combination or 2 if ud like.

i'd take them all out. maybe leave 1.

until proven otherwise I won't put JJ in his range since most players running his stats will 3b/gii with that stack size. I can see leaving it in deeper but it's just so unlikely he'll do it here that I am inclined to discount it. I would also discount AK.

his sizing indicates he's a reg.

Foks · 06-14-2012, 11:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by desperad0oo7

i'd take them all out. maybe leave 1.

until proven otherwise I won't put JJ in his range since most players running his stats will 3b/gii with that stack size. I can see leaving it in deeper but it's just so unlikely he'll do it here that I am inclined to discount it. I would also discount AK.

his sizing indicates he's a reg.

Fair enough. AKs really wasn't a significant part of his range anyway, just 1 hand in the 50/50 column. I'll compromise and say JJ is about 2/6 because of his seeming passivity, even if he is a reg, doesn't mean his skillset is diverse or he pulls the trigger enough.

desperad0oo7 · 06-15-2012, 12:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Foks

Fair enough. AKs really wasn't a significant part of his range anyway, just 1 hand in the 50/50 column. I'll compromise and say JJ is about 2/6 because of his seeming passivity, even if he is a reg, doesn't mean his skillset is diverse or he pulls the trigger enough.

true but his AF is 4. I think he's not passive enough to be flatting JJ/AK from the blinds vs a 20BB stack.

anyway. I shove flop and think we get calls from alot worse. he probably has a few more hands in his range like 78s and 9Qs. ott I won't find a fold. I don't care what the numbers say tbh I don't think we're going to find much better spots with what we'll have left if we fold. so I shove it.

Also, in your EV calcs I think you might be ignoring the times we shove flops and he folds. (are you?)