Hi, with 2440 entries we have been playing for 9 hours, payouts as follows:

1. 1799.75
2. 1292.88
3. 929.59
4. 668.32

V was playing 27/20/0 after 147 at this point im kinda thinking hes going to be opening super wide otb including sc's and at least some % of r/f pre. With such a big difference between 2nd and 3rd in chips im pretty ok trying to go for a top 1 or 2 finish maybe chopping at some point down the track. Sucks we have more than shortie, but are we doing anything else?

Thoughts overall?

http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/8355855

V nice run

Ok so i tend towards being an ICM nit but I don't really like it. ICM factor is pretty high - given that you are 3rd v 1st and the difference in stack sizes between you / shortstack and the other 2 is pretty large - so even if you double up you're an underdog to get into top 2.

you're flipping against even say a 25% range and it's pretty bad when called given the ICM situation. so you're going to need really massive amounts of fold equity to make this +EV

V is getting about 2.5-1 to call the shove and as your stack doesn't threaten his then he's likely to call pretty wide. Also stats are on the tight side - esp since some of that is going to be shorthanded play.

so I think it's -$EV

The only thing that might change the equation is how the shortstack is playing - If they're playing very tight and looking just to ladder then it makes a gamble a bit more attractive.

yea shortstack was playing very tight, so you think we should flat pre or fold?

can't flat with your stack oop - so yes fold is the least worst option imo
difficult situation being one of the shortstacks with the top 2 so far ahead. I guess you're mainly looking for spots to open shove at this point.

Fold > Shove > call/raise

BB made the worst possible decision too.