im ready to be severely berated for this hand:

opinions on all streets are welcome

Merge No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t20.00/t40.00 Blinds - 9 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

SB: t4473.00 111.83 BBs - VPIP: 15, PFR: 11, 3B: 0, AF: 1.0, Hands: 62
BB: t5000.00 125 BBs - VPIP: 0, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 12
UTG: t5578.00 139.45 BBs - VPIP: 27, PFR: 14, 3B: 0, AF: 2.0, Hands: 323
Hero (UTG+1): t4387.00 109.67 BBs - VPIP: 14, PFR: 11, 3B: 5, AF: 3.2, Hands: 16022
UTG+2: t4790.00 119.75 BBs - VPIP: 17, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 12
MP1: t4665.00 116.62 BBs - VPIP: 38, PFR: 19, 3B: 0, AF: 6.0, Hands: 16
MP2: t5000.00 125 BBs - VPIP: 0, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 3
CO: t5334.00 133.35 BBs - VPIP: 50, PFR: 13, 3B: 0, AF: 3.0, Hands: 16
BTN: t5400.00 135 BBs - VPIP: 34, PFR: 26, 3B: 36, AF: 3.0, Hands: 35

Pre Flop: (t60) Hero is UTG+1 with A A
UTG calls t40, Hero raises to t160, 3 folds, CO calls t160, 3 folds, UTG calls t120

Flop: (t540) 5 9 8 (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets t360.00, CO raises to t990, UTG folds, Hero calls t630

Turn: (t2520) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets t1260.00, Hero calls t1260

River: (t5040) J (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets t2924.00, Hero calls t1977 all in

jam the flop only think i do different in this spot.

any info on villain?

the guy raised 1/8 hands he played and the fact he played 8/16hands alrdy u cant just give him credit for a monster unless youve seen him do this and showdown anything. he could easily have a gutter+fd or two overs and fd which ur crushing. he has a set he has a set u cant get away from ur aces especially against this guy

Just ran this through equilab.
If he raises this flop with top pair (A9/K9/Q9/J9/T9/98) 2/3rds of the time (i think he does raise this a lot), and raises this flop 3/4th of the time with straights (only have 76s in his range, not many 76o hands which may be a mistake) (3/4th time means that he just calls when he has 7s6s for straight + fd), and also raises with two pairs and sets.. we have 62% equity against that range.


If you want to give me a more accurate range of hands you think he raises this flop with, I'll put them in. You can just say like "bottom two pair" or "top pair" instead of 85s or A9.


www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: 5s9c8s
Equity Win Tie
UTG+1 61.19% 60.68% 0.52% { AhAs }
CO 38.81% 38.29% 0.52% { TT, 9d9h, 9d9s, 9h9s, 8d8h, 8d8c, 8h8c, 5d5h, 5d5c, 5h5c, KsQs, KsJs, QsJs, KsTs, QsTs, JsTs, Ad9d, Kd9d, Kh9h, Ks9s, Qd9d, Qh9h, Qs9s, Jd9d, Js9s, Td9d, Ts9s, 9d8d, 9h8h, Ks7s, Qs7s, Js7s, Ts7s, 9d7d, 9h7h, 9s7s, Ks6s, Qs6s, Js6s, Ts6s, 9d6d, 9h6h, 9s6s, 7d6d, 7h6h, 7c6c, Ks4s, Qs4s, Js4s, Ks3s, Qs3s, Ks2s, Qs2s, Ad9h, Ad9s, Ac9d, Ac9h, Ac9s, Kd9h, Kd9s, Kh9d, Kh9s, Ks9d, Kc9d, Qh9d, Qs9d, Qs9h, Qc9d, Qc9h, Qc9s, Jh9d, Js9d, Js9h, Jc9d, Jc9h, Jc9s, Th9d, Ts9d, Ts9h, Tc9d, Tc9h, Tc9s, 9d8h, 9d8c, 9h8d, 9h8c, 9s8d, 9s8h, 9s8c }


Equilab is bad ass.. never saw this feature, but it's basically like PokerStove, but a lot better. It is a lot easier to narrow ranges with it because you can select what TYPE of hand you want in their range. Instead of having to click each individual hand, you can checkmark the option "three of a kind, set" and it selects all hands that match the board you have listed.

this is a cool tool!

my main question is if a 50/13 guy with only 16 hands so i dont have enough reads is calling his draws or raising them and if he does in fact call all these suited cards preflop u put in like J2s?
why would we assume he is a whale by default?
if we dont put so many crappy hands in things change dramatically and thats why i wanted some discussion to his range

EDIT: I did the math using that range, and I believe the villain will fold 13.83% of the time to our jam (I removed some weak top pair hands, but kept all draws / straights / sets / most K9&A9 hands/ all 2 pair)

We win 58.57% of the time against his calling range. (Above is his flop raising range). We profit $5,757 every time we win. (We multiply that by our win percentage.) We profit -$3,867 every time we lose. (Multiply that by our loss percentage.) Add those two factors together and you have a net cEV (chipEV) of $1,769.77. Now we have to multiply the net cEV from when we get called by the percent of the time we get called (86.17%). So if we get called, our TOTAL cEV from being called when we jam is $1,525.02. We must now add how much chips we win when we get folds.

We get the villain to fold 13.83% of the time. Multiply 13.83% by the amount we profit when they fold on the flop ($1,890). Our TOTAL cEV from when we shove and get no calls is $261.39.

Add the net cEV of when we get called (win AND lose) and when we get folds (all profit when they fold) to get the actual NET EXPECTED VALUE of a Shove. The number is $1,786.40 That's a profit of 44.66 BB. You started with $3,867 when you made the play. You end with (on AVERAGE) $5,653.40.


All of this information can be found on my spreadsheet. (Thanks to Tournament Poker Edge for the layout/partial formulas on the left. The visualization on the right was created by me. The left part was partially done by someone at TPE, but I edited a lot of it to make my own. I have been making a disclaimer any time I post this on the forums because I don't want to be accused of plagiarism. I will eventually change the layout on the left to more of my own, but definitely want to thank TPE for the idea.)

NOTE: This is not actually a resteal, but my spreadsheet references restealing a few times. I haven't made a spreadsheet for post flop shoving yet.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...3c&output=html

The answer I gave above was using VERY BASIC/GENERIC RANGES. Just because my spreadsheet says it's +44.66 BB does not mean it is because my ranges could and probably are way off.

I typed in 50% of hands into his range on Equilab, and I removed hands he wouldn't just overcall preflop with (unless he's just clicking buttons. Removed AA/KK/QQ/AK)..

I feel like he could raise his draws because he's 50/13. It's only 16 hands, but 8 / 16 hands means he's just splashing around, wanting to play a lot of pots. If he was 50/0, I would not have many flush draws in his flop raising range. (probably no fd) When I see a 50/13 over 16 hands, I feel like he's wanting to see a bunch of flops, and will play aggressive if he has a hand that's strong enough. I think he's folding like pure trash like 72o, 64o, but limping K2s,Q6s,97s.. raising broadways, higher pairs, Ax hands.. I would assume everyone a whale by default. When I say that, I mean I would assume they are bad until proven otherwise. I cannot give respect to a random player since the average poker player is not a good one. The average player does not study, read, or go to poker forums.



I am leaning towards a shove, but it's not nearly as profitable as the spreadsheet says with that range.

villain flatted a 4x iso he didn't limp thats why i mentioned your range

helpfull effort though !

Sorry, I mean overall that he limps a large % of hands. I don't think his range changes THAT much. I think he still calls with all SCs, some S1Gs, all broadways/pp.

nice posts kiki.

@snow, don't be calling if you weren't leading the turn. You're basically pot committed OTT if you call imo. If you're planning on going for max value, just jam the flop, or jam the turn.

my lan was to fold if a spade comes

It's hard to fold without a better sample on villain but I think I fold somewhere. I think if you want to fold somewhere I b/f the flop because most villains aren't capable of bluff raising the flop. Also we have As and we do have position on this fish villain and with 20 minute blinds and 5k starting we will surely find a better spot to stack him later. Every time I call down in this spot I am beat.

Agreed. My first thought was b/f on the flop just because 50/13 don't bluff raise, but I lean towards jamming the flop only because fishy villains love to raise top pair and overpairs [TT basically the only one.. maybe JJ if more passive than expected] In game, I would probably play this awful and call the flop, and c/f turn (Well I used to at least.) I definitely don't advocate that.

I eventually did a more realistic equilab calculation on this hand, and we had 40 or 41% equity vs. a passive villain who only raises with the nuts. If we jam the flop, our play must be profitable 67.17% of the time to be +EV. I put the new equity into the spreadsheet and it's +EV, but only by 2bb per play. We also get knocked out 59% of the time since we are covered. It's definitely +EV, but probably not worth the risk. That's taking a slight edge for sure..

To put this into perspective, if you raise to 2.5x on the BTN pre ante, you need to take down the pot 62.5% of the time. (Ignoring any postflop action). You will win 1.5 bb per successful steal attempt. What are your chances of being knocked out? Probably 0% if you don't have a strong hand and are going to fold to a 3bet. [I'm ignoring postflop play, but there's of course a small chance you will get KO'd postflop.. not sure what %.. lets say 5%].. So making a jam vs. a villains range that only raises the nuts on this flop is basically an insanely high risk way to a pot that's basically equivalent to a starting pot preflop. If you like to gamble, go ahead. Now I would say that I am betting this villain would sometimes raise A9 because they are worried about a flush draw, so I would definitely take that into account. It probably becomes largely +EV if they raise TPTK a lot.

Again note that my range is possibly off, we don't have nearly enough info on this villain to know if it's surely +EV. Factors that would make this play more +EV. If the villain raise/folds flush draws, it adds more combos to his raising range that he folds which overall makes our EV a lot higher. Another factor would be if the villain raises hands that we crush more often than we believe. If he raises top pair always, then that's good, especially if he r/c.

i'd fold on flop
or jam on flop cause i dont think ppl r/f here.

don't call the flop, take a decision, you think are beat or not? I think you are, so fold flop, or if you think he would do this with draws or 9-10+ ->> shove.