Hey guys,

10 people left of 400 runners, bubbletime. Villian was running 30/22/37 over 70 hands (some of these shorthanded).
Pre seems standard, flop could be a bet, but decided not to because he liked to checkraise over c-bets and i did not want to be in a spot where i have to call down with second pair.

What would you do on the turn? Just call and evaluate river or raise because there is value to be gained?

Thanx for your input!

Raise for value

Call and analyse the river. This is a danger board. The 9 on turn made the board more connect, but you hit two pairs. The T is on villain range so I would put the Jillian on straight draw.

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...for the discussion, lets see what he could be betting with ott:

- Pair like Jx, 8x, 99, 77...
- Tx hands
- Pair + draw like T9, JT or QJ
- Flush draws like Axcc
- Made straights

I would discount twopairs or sets like 888, 999 as we are blocking them (but still possible)

What do you think?

...i decided to go for value and raised it up to 80k. I was not sure if i want to raise call or raise fold in case he would shove. He did... what would you do?

the problem w raising turn is we leave open the chance of him 3b us and pushing off us our hand with excellent sdv. He can do this 3b w big combo draw type hands that you name above along with his entire value range. Like 10cXc,Ac2c,AcJc,J9,J8,88,99,QT.

Let me ask you this if you raise to 80k and he 3b jam all in 300k are you guna be comfortable calling off? Or even if he clicks 80k back, are we still in love with our hand?

Could be a good idea to take a call/call line even on club and 7 & Q run outs, there are 13 outs that are bad rivers (26%). 9 clubs, 2 Queens and 2 sevens (other straight outs are counted in flush draw) If one of these peels we still have to call upon which we will win sometimes and lose sometimes. But by also taking a more passive line ott we can induce some river bluffs many of which include missed draws and we can realise some value that we would have never otherwise got. Value raising on brick rivers is good too.

...obv i was hoping for a call on his side. After he pushed it was a question of odds. Against a nightmare-range i cant call, but if you mix in some hands like JT i am getting a price to call expecting to be behind alot of times... So no, it is not a comfortable spot to be in. Still not sure what the best play would be... call, raise/fold or raise/call and hope for the best... Just calling is the least variance which has its merits on a ft bubble...

Raise bigger and call if villain jams.

Given the positions and it's a $1r, I think villain can be wider than the range you gave. Also, you want to account for all combos.

You mentioned that you didn't want to Cbet since you were afraid of getting check raised by the Villain but that's really bad thinking on this flop IMO (I've also struggled with being afraid of a Checkraise in the past deep in tourneys). This isn't the type of flop where you'd get check raised lightly especially in these lower stakes, with no flush draws and 2 middling cards. When you check back this flop you give too much for the Villain to realize his equity since there are a decent amount of back door potential and really what cards are you happy to see on the turn rather than taking it down (an 8 is about it or perhaps an low card heart)? If you get check raised then it's an easy fold and you'd avoid some very awkward turns/rivers.

As played, your hand is a fairly good call down hand. Good enough to beat most his value range with blockers to all the sets he could have besides the 22 and you'd want his bluffs to continue on the river where you'd get no value from raising. Another thing is if you do raise the turn it makes his decision too easy with these stack depths and you lose the value of position.

On the river I'd look to call anything that doesn't complete a 1 card straight that's within his range. For instance, obviously any Q is bad and the same with a 7. I'd don't think I would call as well if a 10 rolls off. If a back door flush hits well then it gets more interesting if villain continues. I would call anything that blocks his flush range on the river. For instance, if a Ac or Kc rolls off then it blocks a lot of strong flush combos he could be raising turn with so I'd call. GL hope it helps.

...thank you all for the discussion!

Raise the turn and don't fold turn.