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Old 12-28-2016, 06:14 PM   #151
TrustySam
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Re: Work Space for Learning How to Research Stocks

Portfolio Update


All the experts say it's futile to try and time the market, and that they never manage to buy at the absolute bottom and sell at the absolute top. So just went ahead and bought the stuff for next year today, in case things wind up going up in the new year, instead of down ...


Here are my final purchases! Decided to buy Amazon and ULTA because am hoping they will grow over the long-term. And am buying Google and Facebook because they seem (?) underpriced?



Can't remember why the Facebook wound up separate from the other three lol since it's all in tax free accounts - so can sell it in 6 months if it seems like things might be cooling off for them then?


It feels so helpful to have had the experience of doing something with money where there's rises and falls, and a short-term and long-term - so hopefully things won't feel too different from poker, and will be able to stay focused on potential earnings in the long-term and not the share price in the short-term, like the masters recommend?


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More Big Picture Ideas from the Masters, That Show the Similarities Between Investing and Poker


Got to the part in my book Stock Market Investing that lists some of the teachings of some of the investors who have become known for beating the market over the long-term. So there was a section on Warren Buffett, and also:
Benjamin Graham
Phillip Fisher
Peter Lynch
William O'Neil
Bill Miller

Some repeat themes were:


1. No One Wants to Invest in the Market When it's Going the Wrong Way

The experts were saying that it's not at all natural to want to buy low and sell high - like with poker, guess most of us want to buy (play more) when on a heater, and sell (stop playing) when in a downswing. Who here would be excited to buy into the market at the end of 2008?
(Graph of the Dow for 2001-2008)


LESSON: So that's apparently the big challenge of investing - is being willing to move in when there's bargains to be had, when you really feel more like sticking on the sidelines?



2. Buying Low, When the Lows are Really Low


Benjamin Graham was saying that the things he uses to help him stay motivated are:

a) Reminding himself that he's sticking with quality - and that quality companies are always rewarded in the long-term.


b) Stick with value measures

The experts confirmed that the market's not necessarily 'efficient' in the short-term, and there's definitely bubbles and dips due to people getting overly optimistic or pessimistic - so that's were the extra value can be found, profiting from others' mistakes?

Guess normally stock prices should be rising at about the same rate as profits are rising?

Guess will keep reading Yahoo Finance stuff as well - so will see how things go
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Old 01-01-2017, 03:02 PM   #152
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Re: Work Space for Learning How to Research Stocks




My nephews are watching football and eating egg muffin sandwiches - they're like little mini-me versions of my brother ... genetics are something They go home in an hour or two though, but it's been nice to see them


Anybody have any new resolutions for 2017 - this is about all that caught my eye for this year

Also, it'd be lovely if this turns out to be true

With poker winding down, hopefully 2017 will turn out to be a year of exploration and fresh discoveries, of lots of fun and exciting new interests and activities. GL to us all!
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Old 01-01-2017, 06:53 PM   #153
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Re: Work Space for Learning How to Research Stocks

Some notes from my nephew about today's football games ...




Not totally sure of his reasoning for his picks though - there's a chance his picks might also be his preferred costumes for Halloween ... also, Santa's watching, so being a Raider might not seem +EV, etc

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Old 01-01-2017, 09:45 PM   #154
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Re: Work Space for Learning How to Research Stocks

What a little genius!




Have been looking at recipes - maybe fun to try a 'salad week' sometime this month? Some of these seem like they could be quite tasty?
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Old 01-02-2017, 01:59 AM   #155
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Re: Work Space for Learning How to Research Stocks

Agenda for 2017


Still lots to do in the new year, even though have already made my purchases for 2017 and plan to hold them for the long-ish term.

My list of things to do ...

1. Keep up to date with:
  • Company-specific news
  • General news of what's happening in the world at large

There was that tip earlier, that lots of things can affect the share price of a company, besides just the things the company does - so maybe helpful to try to watch out for all these things?

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Some of the factors that may affect the performance of a company
  1. The company - including management
  2. The environment - including customers
  3. The industry at large
  4. The general economy
  5. The political climate

Especially with Trump taking office - guess will have to see what gets changed? And hopefully he doesn't go starting wars in different parts of the world, or anything like that

2. Reliability testing of resources

Have been relying a lot on analyst price and earnings estimates, and recommendations - so guess next year will be a chance to see how close the various predictions came to the results ... or if they were off, why?

Stuff to watch:

(a) My picks

Quote:
Originally Posted by TrustySam View Post



(b) Other stuff that looked promising?

Even though wound up going with other stuff, maybe it'll still be interesting to keep track of the other stuff that may still do fine? There's Visa, Domino's and Home Depot. And there's also United Health, which looks lovely and seemed to get quite a few recommendations - it kind of made me nervous to not have any experience with the US healthcare system though?

And here's that article that's predicting rough times for Domino's:


(c) Goldman Sachs
According to those analyst estimates, guess Goldman Sachs may or may not be in a bit of a bubble? So maybe interesting to watch what and see what's in store for them in 2017?

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LESSON UNKNOWN: So guess it'll be interesting to watch GS next year to see what happens - maybe it's hard for the analysts to know how much the changes in policy might be worth, so maybe the estimates are too low? So maybe the estimates will continue to get revised upwards? Or maybe earnings will far exceed the estimates? Or maybe the bubble will burst and the price of the stock will fall to come more in line with actual earnings? Or maybe the bubble will last for a bit?


3. Putting together a contingency plan

Jim Cramer on CNBC had this tip: http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/29/crame...ll-happen.html

Quote:
... things will go wrong. There will be a stock that you own one day where there is something wrong with the company ... Events will come that you cannot foresee.

The trick to reducing the damage to your portfolio is to be ready with a game plan that will bail you out in the short term and keep you in the market long term. This way, your money is ready to work for you when you need it most.

Wouldn't want to sell too soon and too often - but guess if something fundamental changes with a company then maybe there may come a time when it might really be better to sell, and put the money on something less risky and more promising?


So maybe it might be helpful to maintain a list of alternatives, so will be prepared to consider various options?


It seems like it should be good practice too - to continue to read more annual reports, to try and become more comfortable with all the financial data. Guess it can be pretty interesting reading too, to learn more about the types of things that companies have to worry about, especially when the CEO of the company personally writes the intro. And then guess it could also be a chance to practice trying to make predictions about what might be in store for other companies in the new year as well?


So will probably just burrow in and do a lot of reading for the first little while - will see how that goes!

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Old 01-02-2017, 09:09 PM   #156
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Re: Work Space for Learning How to Research Stocks

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guess everyone in Canada must do the same thing at night: sit around in our jammies and watch mediocre tv ...

Wonder what's on tonight lol

So much cheesey tv on tonight

Warren Buffett's set to make an appearance on The Celebrity Apprentice: Schwarzenegger Edition this season - should be interesting to see him interacting with Snooki, etc lol


(starting to look for some interesting annual reports to read now too )
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Old 01-03-2017, 07:32 PM   #157
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Re: Work Space for Learning How to Research Stocks

Reading Materials Update


So before finding poker, used to read a lot - and then after finding poker, didn't wind up reading at all lol




Guess with poker slowing down, have more or less gone back to my previous hobby of reading a lot of non-fiction from the internet, as well as some books from the store

The annual reports wound up being a bit of a dud yesterday - tried reading the CEO intros for McDonald's (MCD) and Walmart (WMT), hoping to hear how they're dealing with their challenges since they haven't been doing well the last year or two. But it seemed like the CEOs were more interested in trying to use the space as a chance to do PR, or something? All the intros had kind of an Eric Hollreiser flavour to them?


So that wasn't very interesting reading - did find this article in the Business section of 2+2 though: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/30...ustry-1646798/ . It seems like maybe it might be helpful to read more stories from businesses about the stuff they have to worry about, and what seems to work for them and what might not, and stuff like that? So guess maybe that's what will be focusing on with my reading, and will just have to try to find reading materials that will help with that


They started up another promo on Stars - not sure if it's worth the bother to continue to chase those silly $0.50 bonuses? May order one of those playing history audits, and spend a little time later looking at my stuff from last year - not sure if will want to post my graph or not, will have to see what it winds up looking like haha

Okay, going to make dinner now
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Old 01-04-2017, 12:47 AM   #158
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Re: Work Space for Learning How to Research Stocks

Little Poker Update

Was able to get the playing history audit and add all my promo and rakeback stuff to my cash graph - it's so awful looking! Completely unfit for public consumption lol

Managed to make $300 - although that's *with* the promos, which averaged about $1 a day, sooo ... ya, not great Haven't really put any time whatsoever into studying poker over the past two years - so guess that's what happens when time's spent looking at cat videos instead of training videos Oh well ... guess if it only takes a half hour or so to complete the challenges, maybe okay to keep playing for snack money if it's still fun?
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Old 01-04-2017, 08:43 PM   #159
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Re: Work Space for Learning How to Research Stocks

Cannot stop watching this video! Looks like such a lovely time, on a sunny afternoon

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Old 01-04-2017, 10:33 PM   #160
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Re: Work Space for Learning How to Research Stocks

Reading List for Tonight


Besides the driving doggie video (), found this on the internet as well - maybe interesting to help learn more about Visa?

Also found this book series that's supposed to be pretty famous - there's even a wikisummary for the first one, so that's a big plus

http://www.wikisummaries.org/wiki/Go...Others_Don%27t


So will maybe give these a try tonight?


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Old 01-05-2017, 07:29 PM   #161
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Re: Work Space for Learning How to Research Stocks

Wasn't able to read the payments article because it turns out it's a research report, and they're charging a fee to access it - boo!


So will have to try something else today instead - may try to download a bunch of book samples from Amazon, and see if any of them look interesting?

Going to make dinner now
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Old 01-05-2017, 09:55 PM   #162
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Re: Work Space for Learning How to Research Stocks

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Wound up reading, gosh ... maybe 20 poker books instead when trying to learn how to play poker - with maybe 2 of those being helpful? Wonder if maybe it'll sort of be the same with learning how to research stocks?

Guess the selection of business books is so much larger than poker, so there's a lot more stuff to sift through?

Just tried doing a google search for something like 'books about why businesses succeed' - and my returns included stuff for a Broadway musical called 'How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying', starring Daniel Radcliffe and Nick Jonas. Must say, it looks really good! But gosh, looks like this may take a while ...


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Old 01-06-2017, 03:07 PM   #163
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Re: Work Space for Learning How to Research Stocks

Hi TrustySam,

Really like your detailed posts. I'm also trying to get into investing, once I stop playing poker so frequently. Have you thought about trading? To me, trading is a lot like poker and being "active" in investing.
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Old 01-06-2017, 07:13 PM   #164
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Re: Work Space for Learning How to Research Stocks

Hey Stuntman!


Hey it's neat that you mention trading, because was reading a thread a while ago in the Business section of 2+2, and it seemed to get a lot of interest - it sounds like maybe quite a few people have found active trading quite similar to poker?

Do Traders go through as much variance as poker players?


Part of me has been wondering if have maybe been a bit too timid about being more active with trading, after missing out on some opportunities after Trump got elected. Maybe if this year goes okay, may have more courage to try more short-term stuff a little bit? Although, even then will have only made a handful of trades - guess it'll take a while to gain some experience

Trading sure does look like a promising area for after poker though - starting a business seems to be fairly popular as well ... it's sure nice to see people finding other stuff that's been as interesting/challenging/rewarding as poker


GL with your poker/investing Stuntman!! And thanks so much for stopping by
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Old 01-06-2017, 08:39 PM   #165
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Re: Work Space for Learning How to Research Stocks

TrustySam,

I think being timid of something we try for the first time is just normal.
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Old 01-07-2017, 12:50 AM   #166
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Re: Work Space for Learning How to Research Stocks

That's very true

Hopefully it'll get better with more practice ...

Have a nice weekend Stuntman!!
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Old 01-08-2017, 03:08 PM   #167
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Re: Work Space for Learning How to Research Stocks

Am just burrowing in today because it's sooo cold out ... brrr!!

Will just have to go out to get my free muffin at Tim Horton's, and maybe pick up some other groceries at some point ...

Quote:
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it's the one where the 'cashback' is rewarded with credit that can only be used in their store, so something extra they give out as well is a bonus freebie on weekends ...

Next month, the weekend bonus is a muffin, yum!

Was watching the PokerStaples stream on twitch to see what things are like in the sunny Bahamas, and Bill Perkins was visiting - he was talking about how he started off being a broker, and then switched to trading natural gas options.

Bill Perkins is so lovely - kind of get the feeling all the stuff he does is super complicated, but he didn't make it sound that way


Pretty fun to tune into a poker stream and get to hear a discussion on investing - yeah, guess there's a fair amount of similarities
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Old 01-08-2017, 03:21 PM   #168
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Re: Work Space for Learning How to Research Stocks

Jaime must be streaming from a lobby/lounge or something, because people keep stopping by to chat on stream - now Felipe Mohave is on.

Jaime's also streaming the SHR final table (no hole cards) - it's too bad Stars didn't plan ahead, and are now trying to stream with a makeshift setup ...


Anyways, guess there's a lot more going on in the Bahamas than usual
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Old 01-08-2017, 11:14 PM   #169
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Re: Work Space for Learning How to Research Stocks

Meryl Streep's on a massive anti-trump rant for about 10 minutes now on the Golden Globes
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Old 01-09-2017, 12:28 AM   #170
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Re: Work Space for Learning How to Research Stocks

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So will have to try something else today instead - may try to download a bunch of book samples from Amazon, and see if any of them look interesting?

Managed to wind up with a long list of promising books to check out, like this book that's supposed to be a favourite of both Warren Buffett and Bill Gates:

Really wanted to like it, but it's like some relic from another era. Guess book-writing styles have evolved as much as movies and tv? So this book was like the Sound of Music of books - must be on the lookout for more of a Star Wars (faster moving )


Wound up downloading these two books after all:

Quote:
Originally Posted by TrustySam View Post


It looks like in the original book the author tries to find some common characteristics of companies that have high returns? Guess those are the sorts of companies am hoping to find to buy shares of?

Lots of graphs and stuff in point form too - so hopefully the book'll be interesting, without being too heavy reading


Hope FB drops back down sometime this week - wasn't able to add more to my RRSP and TFSA until the new year, and would like to use the new money to buy more shares. Will have to see what tomorrow brings - night everybody ...

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Old 01-09-2017, 09:12 PM   #171
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Re: Work Space for Learning How to Research Stocks

Okay, going to burrow in and watch cheesey tv and read my two books - hope they have some interesting stuff in them!

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Old 01-10-2017, 01:10 AM   #172
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Re: Work Space for Learning How to Research Stocks

Was going to post what have read so far, but couldn't seem to come up with quite the right couple of little sentences

Will keep reading and try again tomorrow

Night everybody
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Old 01-10-2017, 07:35 PM   #173
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Re: Work Space for Learning How to Research Stocks

It snowed about half a foot this morning, and now it's raining and have to go out and bring the recycling to the curb ... oh canada ....




Facebook doesn't seem to be dropping too much, so decided to just get the extra shares for my TFSA today:

Donald Trump is supposed to be holding his first press conference tomorrow - was a bit worried he'd say stuff tomorrow like, '2017 is going to be huuuge!' and everyone would go on a buying frenzy, and the price might not get any better than today But who knows - if it winds up going down, guess it'll go back up eventually ...


Going to go take out the recycling, then make some din and put on my jammies
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Old 01-11-2017, 09:35 PM   #174
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Re: Work Space for Learning How to Research Stocks

Daily Round-Up


Trump Press Conference

Quote:
Originally Posted by TrustySam View Post
Donald Trump is supposed to be holding his first press conference tomorrow
So it sounds like the economy was barely discussed during the press conference, because most of the time was spent on the (possibly untrue) dishy Russian gossip scandal that everybody's talking about on USmagazine.com?



Other Watch List

Guess it's only been a couple of weeks - but am relieved that things seem to be going *okay* so far with my picks. Something that worries me a little bit is seeing how well two of the stocks that didn't make my final cut are doing, Visa and Domino's ...

It makes me wonder if mistakes were made? Did something get missed? Or is it really just too early to tell what things'll be like by the end of the year?

It feels like it can only help to try to learn as much as possible - so hopefully am on the right track by trying to read lots of books and articles about business and investing?



Book: From Good to Great

My new book is pretty good - the book published the findings of a research study on what made more successful companies different from the more average ones - and one difference they found is that the CEOs and employees of the companies that did better were more attuned to what customers wanted ... so then maybe they were better at meeting peoples' needs, and then the $ followed? While the CEO's of the other companies tended to care more about earnings, sometimes because their bonuses were tied to earnings - or else they just weren't that attuned to customer needs, and missed noticing when the market changed, and stuff like that?


Daily Round-Up


Trump Press Conference

Quote:
Originally Posted by TrustySam View Post
Donald Trump is supposed to be holding his first press conference tomorrow
So it sounds like the economy was barely discussed during the press conference, because most of the time was spent on the (possibly untrue) dishy Russian gossip scandal that everybody's talking about on USmagazine.com?

Last edited by niss; 01-11-2017 at 10:21 PM. Reason: PM me if this is not correct or if you need/want additional changes
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Old 01-11-2017, 11:47 PM   #175
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Re: Work Space for Learning How to Research Stocks

Thanks so much niss! Usually try to edit before posting, so will have enough time to do finishing touches once it's posted, but got distracted by a phone call today and ran out of time

It feels much improved with fewer words ... guess less can sometimes be more
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