IPO Watch - Freshii


Hey, here's something new that might be fun to watch - there's a fast-food chain in Canada called Freshii, and they just had their IPO yesterday. So maybe it's an opportunity to watch a company from the first day they went public, as they try to expand and grow?

There was a great video here about Freshii's IPO (and IPO's in general these days): Freshii a great company, but we're cautious on the stock: Goodreid

... and the fund manager they were interviewing was saying that some companies start so high, that it's better to wait for prices to fall ... and then there's time to see how the company does with their expansion plans and stuff too?


There's another big IPO that's supposed to be coming up this year for Snap too.

Amazon Earnings Report


Haven't had a chance to look at any of the articles on what's happening with Amazon, but it looks like they met their earnings estimates ... and yet have still dropped over 4% in after-hours trading?

Not sure how reliable the after-hours trading is in showing how things'll be during regular hours the next day - because yesterday in after-hours trading FB surged 3%, but by opening bell today those gains had disappeared, and today the stock dropped?

So not sure where Amazon's stock is headed from here - guess it's a good thing that poker's gotten too hard for me to play any more, so will have plenty of time tonight to read all the articles on what the analysts might be expecting after today's report

Will start tackling the pile of reading after dinner

Wiarton Willy Predicts an Early Spring


Didn't realize Willy threw such a party every year to celebrate Groundhog Day looks like there were fireworks ...

Lots of press

With entertainment provided by his sponsor

Even some 'fake news' out of Waterloo, lol

No shadow, yay!

Amazon Earnings Day (cont'd)


So it sounds like Amazon's 'three pillars' of prime, marketplace, and web services are still solid - so they're as good of a long-term pick as ever? ¹,²,³

And they even had their best year to date. Guess share prices fell because the stronger dollar last year put a dent in their profits? And in the next couple of months, they'll be making investments that mean there might not be any profits over the next 3 months?

Even when Amazon had that really bad year in 2014 when they tried unsuccessfully to break into the smart phone market, they managed to bounce back pretty quickly the year after because their core business was doing so well. So maybe this might be like a milder version of what happened at the beginning of last year, when they also warned that they might not make much money in the short-term?

Jim Cramer on CNBC was saying, "This is your chance to buy Amazon, not sell it."

Hopefully he's right? Maybe will wait for the price to drop back down to $750 or something? Or maybe put the money into ULTA for the time being if it stays low for a while?


¹ https://www.thestreet.com/story/13977474/3/amazon-s-earnings-fell-just-short-of-a-high-bar.html (By and large, Amazon's story doesn't look any different now than it did following its third-quarter report. Forex and a slight slowdown in demand growth for the company's core businesses led it to fall a little short of market expectations that are certainly higher than they were in the winter of 2016. But the catalysts for driving strong double-digit sales growth and continued share gains within those businesses remain in place.)

² https://qz.com/901782/amazon-misses-revenue-expectations/?utm_source=YPL&yptr=yahoo (Amazon posted a profit in the fourth quarter of 2016, but missed analyst expectations on revenue. Plans for global domination are still on, though.)

³ http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/84054.html

Here's a bonus shot of Willie having a little snack:

He's so cute!

Visa Earnings Report


Kind of took my eye off Visa to focus on the 4 shares had narrowed down my list to, and look how Visa did today - they're up 10% for the year ...

Guess my original plan was to buy and hold shares of just a handful of quality companies who have steadily outperformed the market for years, in hopes of trying to make a 30% return for the year?

But then, got the idea to try to minimize the losses of predictable downswings, in hopes of adding more of a cushion? So if Amazon rises 8% and then drops 8% and then rises 8%, instead of just gaining 8% it might be possible to squeeze out as much as 14%?

But with Google, Facebook, and Amazon all kind of on the decline after earnings season, maybe better to have more stocks in rotation, so while some are in a downswing, hopefully there's enough alternatives that will be able to find a couple that are still on the upswing (if it's company-specific and not because the world's going down in flames? )

Visa rarely misses earnings, so maybe today might have been an opportunity to squeeze out an extra couple of %'s of gain?

Side Hobby


Have been playing Spin & Gos for that Spinball promo - not sure if we're still playing poker any more ... or if we're trying to kick the ball in the net?

PokerStars - 10/20 NL (3 max) - Holdem - 3 players

TrustySam (BB): 500
JaunelisM (BTN): 490
Llama895 (SB): 510

Llama895 posts SB 10, TrustySam posts BB 20

Pre Flop: (pot: 30) TrustySam has T 5

JaunelisMT raises to 40, Llama895 raises to 510 and is all-in, fold, JaunelisMT calls 450 and is all-in

FTR: (1,000, 2 players) 4 5 8 A 4

Llama895 shows 7 T
(Pre 32%, Flop 25%, Turn 10%)

JaunelisMT shows A 8
(Pre 68%, Flop 75%, Turn 90%)

JaunelisMT wins 1,000

PokerStars - 10/20 NL (3 max) - Holdem - 3 players


jgjjhjjjjjjjjj (BTN): 500
TrustySam (SB): 500
ypnos vathis (BB): 500

TrustySam posts SB 10, ypnos vathis posts BB 20

Pre Flop: (pot: 30) TrustySam has A 7

jgjjhjjjjjjjjj raises to 40, fold, ypnos vathis raises to 500 and is all-in, jgjjhjjjjjjjjj calls 460 and is all-in

FTR: (1,010, 2 players) 7 5 J 7 7

ypnos vathis shows K T
(Pre 68%, Flop 75%, Turn 90%)

jgjjhjjjjjjjjj shows 3 8
(Pre 32%, Flop 25%, Turn 10%)

ypnos vathis wins 1,010

Have to come in 3rd to complete the puzzle, which hasn't been that easy to do Also haven't been making too much money - guess it's not easy to have much of an edge when a lot of hands'll still have ~35% chance? But haven't been losing any money either, and that's important!

Guess will just give these a try for a while and see how they go?

are you currently playing any games on investopedia? earlier itt you mentioned them and i joined the warren buffet million dollar challenge, which i think is pretty neat. i definitely like it more than fantasy football.

this is my game as of right now, that i started shortly after the most recent US election: https://c1.staticflickr.com/1/704/32...23bae99b_c.jpg

i'm looking for long term stuff, with a mix of companies i actually like and use and think should be great, with companies i cynically expect would benefit from crony capitalism and kleptocracy from the new US government

Wow, look at your portfolio SA!! Really like all your picks - looks like your Trump picks are doing especially well ... would have liked to have given some a try, except am still feeling inexperienced and afraid


It's really neat to look at all the stocks you've mentioned and have a chance to see how they've done - remember hearing something about Wynn doing really well this year, but hadn't realized that the stock had had a giant spike a couple of weeks ago ... that's the stuff dreams are made of

And didn't realize Tesla was doing so well to start the year - WOW!

Also remember hearing that Apple spiked after having a good earnings report - their stock hasn't been looking so hot the last couple of years, but it sounds like things have started to pick up for them again? And aren't people pretty excited about the new 10th Anniversary iPhone that's supposed to be coming out this year, and stuff too? Was planning on taking a closer look at their annual report this week - it kind of feels like they might be poised for a big year?


Hadn't noticed the portfolio feature on Investopedia - it looks really sophisticated with all that fancy stuff like options. Maybe a good place to give those things a try to see how they work?


Looks like you have a real talent for investing SA!! Fun to have a chance to see how your well your picks are doing ... nice job!!

So today's the big day!


Lady Gaga has her big show Guess the two football teams to make it to the Superbowl are both at the top of their game And Lady Gaga is too - and she really brings the spectacle, so this half-time show should be great. There's even supposed to be a light show using drones that's going to be similar to one that Intel apparently designed for Disney World.


The Superbowl's such a fun reason to eat snacks too Some people really go all out, weaving bacon and stuff ...




Made homemade chips and dip a couple of years ago, and sloppy joes last year , but didn't see any recipes this year that caught my eye. Maybe today might be a good day to indulge and finally try Domino's? For research purposes ... lol

Will see

Hope everybody's having a nice weekend!

Superbowl Pre-Show


John Travolta sings? Who knew


Followed up on that investment research have been meaning to do

And got the Philly Cheesesteak pan pizza for $10.99:

Maybe should have tried more classic toppings? Would maybe give the philly cheesesteak about a 2/5?


There's a commercial on now promoting a movie with the raccoon on Qui Nguyen's cap - looks like he's making a sequel (the racoon, not Qui ) Wish we got all the $5mil commercials in Canada - guess we'll maybe be get some Tim Hortons ones or something instead ...

Superbowl LI


The thread-starters of the Superbowl every year seem to make OP's with lots of details that can be helpful for those of us who don't follow football - and oftentimes the posts are more entertaining than the actual game


Here's this year's: Two Plus Two Poker Forums > Sports and Games > Sporting Events > SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

(some of the more controversial stuff has been edited out)

Quote:

Originally Posted by CalledDownLight

Fighting out of the good corner: a lovable underdog who has appeared in one previous Super Bowl (XXXIII) from a city that has won exactly one Championship in its history (168 previous seasons of professional sports).

The key players:

LEAGUE MVP: MATT RYAN





FREAK OF NATURE: JULIO JONES





2 HEADED RUNNING BACK TANDEM: DEVONTA FREEMAN and TEVIN COLEMAN





AFC NORTH CASTOFFS: MOHAMED SANU SR. and TAYLOR GABRIEL





THE OWNER: HOME DEPOT ARTHUR BLANK

And out of the evil corner: a despicable franchise that has won far too many Super Bowls, games, and everything else ...

While we're on the subject of murder, let's not forget that this team employed a serial murderer at TE for multiple years, OOPS:



QB: CONVICTED CHEATER TOM BRADY

The dancing owner of the Falcons is fun He was on The Ellen Show the other day - guess last year he bid on a studio prop that was being auctioned off for charity and won the auction, and no one in the audience full of women apparently knew who he was, including Ellen (and me )

Oh that's weird - it looks like we got the T-Mobile commercial with Justin Bieber?

Lady Gaga!!


The drones are so beautiful

That was okay - maybe a bit visually chaotic with so many people? Could have used a 'left shark' or two to add some variety

Looks like it's back to regularly scheduled programming:

May turn to watch Ride Along on NBC, featuring poker special guest star Kevin Hart instead ...

It starts in 20min

Was hoping to turn back and watch the new 24 - tie game ... wow, what happened?!

The Superbowl's my annual excuse to post cute pictures of adorable kittens holding baby footballs ...

But wow, the game was almost as attention-grabbing as the cat pics this year!

Fun game!

Hmmm, looks like Photobucket is down - was hoping to be able to update my portfolio. Will have to try again later ...


Hard to top the Superbowl when it comes to event television viewing But the finale of the Celebrity Apprentice - Arnold Schwarzenegger Edition is tonight, and this may be the last chance ever to watch this show So wouldn't want to miss that ...

And the Grammy's are supposed to be on this weekend, with all the live musical acts - mostly non-lip-synched! So that should be good Also the Academy Awards will be on at the end of the month, with all the stars in pretty dresses. Have never usually seen any of the movies that have gotten nominated, and this year's no different unless Kevin Hart's been nominated for something lol ... but anyways ...

Then guess all the shows will be starting up again in March - MasterChef, Dancing with the Stars ... and all those other 'goodies'?


And then it'll be Spring, so that'll be nice


Will try to upload my portfolio update to photobucket again after dinner

Lebron James


If people were posting were fun clips of Carson Kressley being entertaining on Celebrity Apprentice, would be posting those instead


But since there's not ...


Highlight Vid

Extended Version, Set to Music (lol)

Portfolio Update


Despite the fact that the pizza from Domino's yesterday was practically inedible, wound up buying some DPZ today with my money that was sitting on the sidelines It looks like the share price of DPZ may still rise over the next couple of weeks, to match estimates in the run up to their earnings report on Feb. 23?


So just own ULTA and DPZ for now:

Guess it'll be a lot more quiet now the last few earnings reports for these two won't be for several weeks. So will probably just burrow in and do my nightly reviews of the day's news, watch my silly shows, and get cozy under my snuggly blanket on the couch


GL us!

The King sinks a circus 3, first calmly comforts his own players and then the losing opponents.

haha!

Portfolio Update


Guess a lot of the info that moves share prices comes from the companies' quarterly and annual reports? And then all the quarterly and annual earnings estimates (that have been relying on) get adjusted as well?

So my process for finding stocks to invest in three months ago was to look at the estimates for the current quarter/year at the time (2016 year end and 4Q). And now that the actual earnings for Google, Amazon, and Facebook have been reported, guess the process starts all over again for the current quarter, now that the analysts have adjusted all the earnings estimates to take all the new info into account? Maybe should have even gotten started looking at the numbers at the *beginning* of the quarter ... or even earlier? But didn't think of that at the time - so hopefully better late than never?



Facebook (FB) - estimating 1Q share price increase

Looks like it's a bit easier to use the graph at my subscription site GuruFocus at the end of the year - and for the first quarter, had to do a little bit more?

Step 1. Get the EPS estimate for 2017 1Q from Nasdaq.com

Step 2. Get last year's actual EPS for 2016 1Q from GuruFocus

Step 3. Add the difference to the EPS TTM (trailing twelve months) graph

It looks like Facebook is *still* underpriced ... but not totally sure? In the very least, it looks like the share price should rise to $140 (or higher) sometime between now and the end of March or April?

And today the FB rose 1.8% for no apparent reason - guess maybe the increase might happen sooner rather than later ... so sold my ULTA today, because it looks like that's already peaked for the quarter? And tried to buy some Facebook instead - but the price kept going up so will try to buy some again tomorrow?

Barrick Gold (ABX) - first 'Trump Trade'

And then, decided to give trading on current events a try, rather than relying solely on expected earnings. Not sure if this might be too much of a gamble? But this stock is up 22% for the year

The bad news is that it seems to be quite a bubble-prone stock, whose share price seems to have kind of a weak relationship to actual earnings?

It already went up 1.35% in like the last 8 minutes of trading of the day So it's quite volatile, because sometimes the daily drops can be just as wild. Have used a stop-loss that will (hopefully?) sell it if it drops more than 3%?

The other alternative was to buy shares of a gold ETF that's backed by a vault of actual gold bars - they're doing quite well for the year as well:

Guess gold tends to do well when people feel anxious about what's going on in the world? So maybe investing in gold is kind of can't lose - like if people the world over don't feel as anxious, then that'll be a win; and then if people the world over start feeling even more anxious ... well, at least will have $ thanks to skyrocketing gold prices?

So here's the update of my portfolio, with ULTA sold and ABX added. And will hopefully be able to add the Facebook tomorrow:

Turns out my estimate that Domino's still had room to grow was a *mistake* - was looking at the wrong chart But then it started rising really fast, and now it's up almost 5%, so guess will just hold onto it? lol!!


My thread feels way more fun when am posting every day But it's been kind of lovely taking a break to focus on my portfolio for a bit - it's up over 10% for the year already ... and that's even with all my constant moving around and miscalculations and nervousness and all that. Guess the stock market's more forgiving than poker where there's hardly any room for error, so that's been nice ...


PS. Also, guess Amazon probably won't drop any more - maybe it just won't rise so much this quarter though?

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/06/b...nvestors.html?

this top investor who doesn't give out any free advice thinks

Hey SA!


Yes, so true! Trump frightens people - so was hoping make a little cash off of that, so would have some extra monies to comfort myself with during the uncertain times

And then today of all days, he went and offered some words of reassurance on his tax cuts, and gold has its worst day since he took office. Almost hit my stop-loss in the first 30 minutes of trading, yikes!

Seeing it drop almost 3% in 30 minutes about gave me a heart attack! Until it occurred to me that 3% is only $150 because my porfolio is tiny lol. Can't decide whether maybe this gold stock just needs me to be willing to have a lower stop-loss, of like 5% due to the volatility ... or if maybe would rather just not bother having to worry about it?

Maybe this isn't the ideal time to invest in gold, since like the article points out, there's stuff that could be beneficial to the economy that Trump has planned, in addition to there being stuff that makes people nervous, like possible trade wars? Maybe a mixed bag?

The graph for the gold company looks just like my graph for Spin & Gos - like a complete train wreck

Am just going to sell my gold stock - it seems like things were going just fine by relying on earnings, so maybe there's no need to put money into something with so much volatility?


So this will be my first loss - am glad to have tried something new though ... maybe will find a better opportunity to make a 'Trump trade' later on