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Old 12-03-2014, 08:09 PM   #26
Ray Zee
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oil too cheap?

wow the price of oil is way down there. but can it last. not really. most countries have a cost considerably more than its current price to get it to market. even the few that can get it out for say 70 a barrel have large national debts and need near 100 a barrel to continue on in their spending ways.

the u.s. is in the best position as we get it out for around that price but our economy isnt dependent on producing the stuff. in most of the oil producing countries that is their main source of needed income.

right now saudi arabia and the u.s. have a vested interest in low oil prices. for the saudi's it can mean they keep market share and drive out of business some other competition. for the u.s. it means that russia will go into a recession and be punished for their current ways. this may end up good or bad.

the bad, it may start a new cold war with russia taking over their old territory.
or the good, it may mean they will capitulate from the economic hardship and become more benign. time will tell.
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Old 12-05-2014, 01:50 AM   #27
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Re: oil too cheap?

Could be wrong but I think just the threat of the USA stepping up their subsidies to domestic oil production with things like accelerated depreciation for capital investment, low interest loans on friendly terms, etc. would give the USA tremendous leverage in negotiating with foreign govts that aren't particularly friendly to the USA and have a lousy record on human rights. Seems like a lot of these countries including Saudi Arabia have grown fat, dumb, happy, and more importantly highly dependent on ~$100 a barell oil and thus have left themselves highly vulnerable. Intuitively game theory might provide some insight in how to proceed.

Don't play poker anymore, after UIGEA I just didn't want to play live or need to. I live in WA now and the action near where I live is small stakes so not really worth it on that account either.
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Old 12-05-2014, 04:47 PM   #28
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best way to invest in low oil prices

with the low prices how as poker players can we capitalize on it. the answer when investing is to invest in what and how you know. i tend to like real estate but many others dont.

the stock market is the favored way most invest. so what do we think about with low oil prices. invest in oil companies. that works wonderful when the prices come back up.
the other side is to invest in things at make money now because of low prices.
like trucking companies, delivery services like ups and fed ex. they dont lower prices just save on costs. you get the picture.

but what about poker. well what is often overlooked with low prices, is that everyone gets to have some more discretionary income. so people will go play poker more so you can play more and invest in your time to make money.

also casino stocks will prosper as vacations to close by resorts will go up, along with the casino play.
just some thoughts and giving a way to think about some things that may make you some money if played right.
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Old 12-07-2014, 06:46 AM   #29
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Re: from ray to zee

Hey Ray

Occasionally I check into blog section and always check to see if you've updated recently. Loving your ramblings.

I'm not much of an investor, but that's OK. Particularly love the poker and/or just general life musings. Keep writing. glgl
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Old 12-07-2014, 11:26 AM   #30
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Re: from ray to zee

thanks peter.i do a little bit of it all. but ive found most poker players dont do much investing and when we get older and it seems we all do, it becomes mandatory.
and if you wait too long you lose much the compounding effect of your money that starts early in life. i tell you one thing for sure its alot better to be old and rich than old and no so.
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Old 12-13-2014, 12:34 AM   #31
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Re: from ray to zee

Hi Ray,
Vince Lepore here. Haven't been up to two plus two for a while. And when I do come here bang I see Ray Zee. Amazing. I noticed that in an earlier post you mentioned Oregon Poker. I have lived in Oregon for the past 2 years. I quit playing full time poker in 2008 when Mason stopped talking to me . A few months ago a poker room opened in my home town. It runs a small buy in tournament 6 nights a week. I started playing them and have done real well. The structures are great with no juice just a fee to get in the club. So if you are ever around Bend Oregon visit the Bend Poker Room and say hi.
Good to see you are still kicking and not stuck in an outhouse.

Vince
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Old 12-14-2014, 02:22 PM   #32
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Re: from ray to zee

yes oregon has great games although not very big. but virtually no rake in the games other than some small fees at a few places.
tournament format is spread whether it is a regular short tournament or a cash game that follows it somewhat to stay within the social gambling law.

there are games all over the state but not in each town every day so you have to travel some. in the few bigger areas there is certainly more to choose from.

plus not having to pay a couple hundred a night in rake makes the games beatable and more fun to play. you arent going uphill from the very start.
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Old 12-14-2014, 03:25 PM   #33
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Re: from ray to zee

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ray Zee View Post
yes oregon has great games although not very big. but virtually no rake in the games other than some small fees at a few places.
tournament format is spread whether it is a regular short tournament or a cash game that follows it somewhat to stay within the social gambling law.

there are games all over the state but not in each town every day so you have to travel some. in the few bigger areas there is certainly more to choose from.

plus not having to pay a couple hundred a night in rake makes the games beatable and more fun to play. you aren't going uphill from the very start.
All of the small tourneys I play are great structures for an experienced poker player. There is plenty of play and even with 20 minute levels there is no need to hurry. Of the six nightly tournaments there is only one that has antes and they don't begin, if my memory serves me correctly, until the 6th level. Our poker room is well run. Very, very few if any arguments. Once in a great while emotions build up and someone gets angry but very few and far between pissing contests. The room charges a flat 5$ club fee. Of course you are stuck with a lot of inexperienced dealers, including myself, because the players deal themselves but so far that is not a big problem. The biggest issue with these home town rooms is playing the same folk over and over. Great for me because I have good reads on my opponents. But I learned a long time ago to not trat others as stupid. I can see that the majority have adjusted their game when playing against me. That makes it a bit more difficult but still most of them do not take the time to try and improve and gambling is still at the forefront of almost all runners.

Do you live in Oregon? Do you play regularly?
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Old 12-18-2014, 07:00 PM   #34
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Re: from ray to zee

lately there has been some good discussions on the two plus two forums. maybe its because the economy is picking up and players are getting back into the game more. i hope so.

overall we have a good bunch of people over here and with new players coming on all the time. this creates new ideas and thoughts on ways to play.

the talent and amount of knowledge is unsurpassed anywhere else to be found. it is basically a one stop shop.
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Old 12-22-2014, 03:20 AM   #35
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winter activities

so its deep into the winter. and we know what happens then. we eat, and eat and eat. along with that most dont exercise enough. soon the weight gain comes on and maybe it never goes away and we live with that extra ten pounds.

its not easy, but finding a way to cut back and do some working out or walking around more helps. i try to park farther away in spots. and spend more time on my feet. it helps but not enough. still it is better than nothing.

some are lucky and have a fast metabolism and it doesnt matter what they eat and they stay slim. the rest of us need to be diligent.
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Old 12-23-2014, 04:52 AM   #36
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Re: from ray to zee

the deal with sony is kind of interesting. on one hand it seemed stupid to produce that movie as it would certainly cause problems and sony has been struggling to stay alive for some time.

on the other it is unbelievable how little stomach they have and our businesses that wont show the movie. talk is cheap but when it comes down to it too many cower in fear over petty threats. now you can see why bullies seem to always get their way.
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Old 12-23-2014, 03:13 PM   #37
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Re: from ray to zee

Its interesting that it has not been offered up on demand yet. I think the companies that offer on demand streaming like i-Tunes and Netflix are also afraid of it.

Our own (2+2) ISP lost about half of their connectivity for half a day due to a ddos attack. Can you imagine the attack that would be launched against any streamer that would carry it?

From our ISP's status page yesterday:
Quote:
DNS Connectivity Issues

We are monitoring a connectivity issue impacting our DNS environment that began at approximately 01:10 CST December 22nd. Our engineers have taken steps to mitigate impact from this issue, however some of our customers may continue to experience intermittent periods of latency, packet loss, or connectivity failures when attempting to reach rackspace.com or subdomains within rackspace.com. This may also continue to impact customer DNS resolution during this time. Our engineers are engaged and continuing work to stabilize the environment.

Thank you for your continued patience as we work to resolve this issue. If you have any further questions or concerns, please contact a member of your support team.


****UPDATE 22 December 11:15 CST****

On December 21st, at approximately 23:54 CST, backbone engineers identified a UDP DDoS attack targeting the DNS servers in our IAD, ORD, and LON data centers. As a result of this issue, authoritative DNS resolution for any new request to the DNS servers began to fail in the affected data centers. In order to stabilize the issue, our teams placed the impacted DNS infrastructure behind mitigation services. This service is designed to protect our infrastructure, however, due to the nature of the event, a portion of legitimate traffic to our DNS infrastructure may be inadvertently blocked. Our teams are actively working to mitigate the attack and provide service stability.

Thank you for your continued patience. We will provide updates as information becomes available.
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Old 12-24-2014, 05:35 AM   #38
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Re: from ray to zee

it looks like sony is now going to put it out in some theaters and maybe let it stream for a pay fee. after obama let them know they made a mistake and the nation seemed to think so also, sony is backed into the corner. do it or dont. their only real option now is to let the movie out and see what happens.

i suspect maybe some more chatter but possibly only more private info may be released. and sony can stand that. and should learn not to have unprotected data floating around that will give them a black eye if it comes out.
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Old 01-05-2015, 08:46 PM   #39
Ray Zee
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definately snow

in northern montana we actually dont get too much snow in the valleys.
but this time got hit with almost two feet in one day. usually we get just a few inches at a time and soon most of it melts. although its a pain it makes everything beautiful outside for sure. the animals are hungry though as most of their food sources are buried in the white stuff.

the poker games still run but are harder to get to so not as good generally.
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Old 01-07-2015, 03:49 AM   #40
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Re: from ray to zee

years back you couldnt eat at the poker table. that seemed fine but so many times you were in a good game and couldnt or wouldnt want to leave for an hour to get a decent meal. oh you could go to the snack bar and gulp down some greasy food or a sandwich but that doesnt really do it.

nowadays most cardrooms let you order food or bring it to the table. this is much better for the game. it keeps you there making money and keeps other players there that would normally quit and go to dinner. but since they are stuck and can eat at the table they stay and go off for more.

the little inconvenience for the card room staff more than makes up for it in longer lasting games.
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Old 01-12-2015, 07:11 PM   #41
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Re: from ray to zee

the event that happened in france has shaken up the world. it is slowly but steadily changing. small threats that happen randomly seem to scare more or as much as bigger ones.
these small incidents meaning a small amount of people are going to be the norm.
the world as some point or a large portion of it need to unite and share to end this crap. if each country goes its own not much will get done. no amount of parading and congregating is going to stop the bursts. only a consolidated group of nations that form together and share info and act to control the situation before it grows to an everyday occurrence.
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Old 01-15-2015, 09:37 AM   #42
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Re: from ray to zee

it is surprising that more card rooms that have a small clientele with few new players coming in due to competition or lack of interest in their area dont try some new ideas.

one idea might be to have a very short quick tournament for small money that can introduce new players to their room. it seems when they have a tournament it is only geared toward their current situation.
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Old 01-19-2015, 09:47 PM   #43
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gas prices

unless you are in the oil business or live close by oil fields your pocket book gets better as the price of gasoline goes down. overall this is real good for the united states and all diversified countries.
but as poker players how can we really profit from this. well we know that about each family will save about 50 to 200 or so a month in cash that doesnt go to the oil companies. and we know that few people that that amount means something will save any of it. so lets figure where it will be spent.
i dont know, but i bet my britches those that live near casinos will spend it there as it is viewed as mad money.

so the logical thing might be to find undervalued casinos near blue collar areas that will benefit by the higher traffic counts. then go play poker there or better yet buy their stock with your mad money you save. that job is on you.
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Old 01-25-2015, 11:37 PM   #44
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Re: from ray to zee

ive been couch bound for the last couple of weeks from an operation that was overdue for me. it was my first time ever in a hospital for myself other than to visit a friend.
not fun at all. the operation went smoothly i guess but i was asleep the whole time.

then they sent me home an hour after i woke up. then i had to have help walking or doing anything for awhile. i elected not to take any pain pills so i didnt strain anything by doing movements that didnt hurt that should have. i believe that was a good idea although few would follow my recommendation.

it still feels tender but no pain and has healed very well for the time. getting old usually means health problems of some kind at times. i know i will have more and dont look forward to the inevitable.
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Old 01-28-2015, 12:49 AM   #45
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Re: from ray to zee

winning at poker isnt very easy. for many it isnt possible at all. getting to be a winner takes a lot more than just learning the odds, and plays to make.
you have to learn how to handle yourself and find your flaws and correct them. that is the hardest part of poker. and if your head is too big and you cant see your weaknesses then you have no chance of becoming a long term winner.
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Old 01-28-2015, 06:45 AM   #46
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Re: from ray to zee

Hello ray zee, I have greatly enjoyed your blog. i probably stand alone in this assessment but I live in kasnas and have a lot of unconvetional views and mainly enjoy reading your blog as a supplement to my fantasy/reality of moving from kansas to portland. im probably the only one but in the bizzare event that I am not, post more about Oregon!
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Old 01-29-2015, 07:53 PM   #47
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Re: from ray to zee

okay,

one nice thing about oregon at least over by the coast is that you are in a temperate climate zone. so the lows arent so far below the highs. even most of the winter you dont need a heavy jacket outside. maybe a rain coat but not a heavy jacket.

inland like in the high desert around bend for instance you get 300 days a year of sunshine but cold days in the winter. and with little cloud cover the nights are really chilly.

portland being the only real city in oregon has moderate temps and overall decent weather for the north west. beautiful city with lots of parks and waterways. fair to good public transportation and not so bad rush hour compared to say seattle.

poker is thriving with plenty of smaller cardrooms with little to no rake. and lots of tournaments to play in. games are good but not huge. there is also a good home game selection after you break in.

a nice university and plenty of young intelligent people walking the streets. they also care about social services and treat those that cant help themselves with respect.

more brew pubs than anyplace in the country and great food choices. especially since they allow food carts in many areas so that makes portland.

no sales tax in the state but other taxes are higher. wages are good on the average except in out of the way places where they depended on natural resource extraction.

you would fit in fine there. bryce
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Old 01-30-2015, 06:44 AM   #48
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Re: from ray to zee

Ray zee,

Thank you for the post, I appreciate it. Portland sounds great for me.I look forward to moving there sometime probably in about 5 months when my lease runs out. There was a situation where i wanted to help a family member out but was incapable, and I'm also not capable of fufilling the legacy of some of my family members whether it is because I'm crazy or not smart enough Im not sure. But I was recently in vail which is a 10 hour drive from my place in kansas and while on about 120 mg of marijuana candy a day and skiing and drinking it occured to me that if I am this irresponsible person(which I am) why would i do the things i do in kansas when i could be doing them in a place like colorado or oregon relatively easily.The rest of that story if anywhere would belong in my blog but I thank you.
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Old 02-02-2015, 02:04 AM   #49
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where to move to

most times people move to a big city. especially younger people. as in the city it seems to have more opportunities and things to do. sure that is right on. but in essence a smaller city meaning a large town say with 30,000 people has most of the big city things. they may not have a sports area or an opera house but most of the big city things are there in a smaller scale.

the advantage of the smaller places are the people. they are certainly more friendly and helpful. much easier to break into the crowd and get to know individuals and they seem to not be in such a rush to get nothing done.

this lets you in on opportunities for housing, jobs, and poker games. as far as the poker games the players are more personable and you can get to find a friend of sorts. this let you get around and find out where you fit in. plus smaller towns have much better easier to beat games but less choice. as in every thing there are trade offs you must make.
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Old 02-07-2015, 11:29 PM   #50
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making it big time

so many of the big names are idolized by the poker community. however most all of them got there by accident. by that i mean they got lucky at some point and ran their money up quickly taking on way too much risk of ruin.

after getting to the so called top most if not all seem to turn into degenerate gamblers. how can you not when being in big action is so exciting. well that excitement eventually breaks almost all but a select few.

the select few are the ones that should be idolized.
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