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Old 01-05-2017, 07:36 PM   #26
KickingWater
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Re: Stats + Results = TAGfish?

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Originally Posted by GiantBuddha View Post
Has all of this play been since Dec 13th? (i.e., since the Ignition rake increase) If so, do you know how many BB/100 you've been paying in rake?
GB, I'm guessing you are referring to my earlier request for some explanation of how to think about the impact of the rake on my ability to profit from the game...

No, I started in November, and I'm aware the rake changed mid-December. I looked it up after BBB posted in this thread that it's tough to beat the rake at the level I'm trying to play. The rake is being taken more often, even when pots are small, but at the same rate if I understand correctly. But it's still 5% up to something like a $2 max (I don't see many pots at $2/4 get large enough to see the maximum rake, but some).

I can understand the $2 cap kicks in much earlier at the higher levels and therefore the rake amounts to less than the 5%, whereas at $2/4 where the $2 cap is seldom realized, the rake is pretty much getting the full 5% of the pot. Maybe there's more to it, and I'm not sure how to calculate the "line" where the rake isn't killing my ability to profit as BBB warned; hoping for some help there.
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Old 01-05-2017, 07:42 PM   #27
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Re: Stats + Results = TAGfish?

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Originally Posted by GiantBuddha View Post
Has all of this play been since Dec 13th? (i.e., since the Ignition rake increase) If so, do you know how many BB/100 you've been paying in rake?
I forgot to answer the second part of your question. No, I don't know how many BB/100 I've been paying in rake, but would love to know. I'm guessing I should take my total pots won in terms of BB and multiply by 5% to estimate it.
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Old 01-06-2017, 02:53 PM   #28
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Re: Stats + Results = TAGfish?

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Originally Posted by KickingWater View Post
I forgot to answer the second part of your question. No, I don't know how many BB/100 I've been paying in rake, but would love to know. I'm guessing I should take my total pots won in terms of BB and multiply by 5% to estimate it.
Applying my assumptions, I estimate I'm losing about 1.25+ BB/100 to the rake alone at this level. That's pretty deflating to any BB/100 win expectation!
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Old 01-06-2017, 05:21 PM   #29
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Re: Stats + Results = TAGfish?

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Applying my assumptions, I estimate I'm losing about 1.25+ BB/100 to the rake alone at this level. That's pretty deflating to any BB/100 win expectation!
1.25 BB/100 would be very low and completely beatable. Thrashable, in fact. I believe the old rake was the same as the PokerStars old rake, which was in the vicinity of 2.5 BB/100. And that is/was beatable. The the concern is that the rake is now more like 3 to 4 BB/100, or possibly even worse. If you would be a 1 BB/100 winner with 2.5 BB/100 rake, you'd be losing in a game with 4 BB/100 rake.

To be clear, though, I'm not sure what the rake is or was at Ignition.
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Old 01-06-2017, 07:29 PM   #30
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Re: Stats + Results = TAGfish?

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1.25 BB/100 would be very low and completely beatable. Thrashable, in fact. I believe the old rake was the same as the PokerStars old rake, which was in the vicinity of 2.5 BB/100. And that is/was beatable. The the concern is that the rake is now more like 3 to 4 BB/100, or possibly even worse. If you would be a 1 BB/100 winner with 2.5 BB/100 rake, you'd be losing in a game with 4 BB/100 rake.

To be clear, though, I'm not sure what the rake is or was at Ignition.
How do you quantify the impact of the rake to determine where it's not worth playing at a certain level?

Ignition now (since Dec 13) collects $0.01 for every $0.20 in the pot for FL games. It used to be $0.05 for every $1. Same rate (5%), they now just apply it at smaller increments so they are able to collect more than they were with $1 increments.

The max rake is $3 for a full 6max table (I thought it was only $2), $2 for 4-5 players, and $1 for 2-3 players. This applies to stakes from $1/2 up through $30/60. This is where I can see the advantage to playing higher stakes - the max rake is the same, thus significantly less as a % of the average pot as the stakes increase.

With a 1BB/100 win rate being an acceptable rate, I don't understand why you say 1.25BB/100 loss due to the rake is "completely beatable". Seems you'd have to be winning about 3BB/100 (exceptional in my understanding!) to overcome this.
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Old 01-06-2017, 09:00 PM   #31
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Re: Stats + Results = TAGfish?

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You don't need the plurality of equity. My general rule of thumb is 45%+ equity versus an opener's range is enough, as my position + fold equity + the chance to blow the blinds out and create dead money makes it a profitable play.

And the fact is, if I saw a guy w/ your preflop stats on the BTN, id probably start pushing to around a 35% CO open, as you won't be three betting much and your cold calling range will be easy to play against. If I saw someone opening that crazy from the CO, i'd definitely start three betting light, possibly over 20%.
jdr, do you adjust this 45% if you're in CO or HJ vs. BT?

The 45% makes sense, especially when I consider the possibility of making dead money out of the blinds and the original raiser's likely call. I'm in for 3 SB of 7.5SB in the pot. At 5% rake that's 3 of 7.125SB, or 42%. 45% equity represents an edge. That does not even take into account position + fold equity.

But in CO, HJ, MP...? Greater possibility of someone waking up behind.
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Old 01-07-2017, 07:43 PM   #32
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Re: Stats + Results = TAGfish?

OP, try live play. With your stats, I think you'd have a good chance to be a winner in most live $8-$16 to $20-$40 games.
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Old 01-07-2017, 08:45 PM   #33
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Re: Stats + Results = TAGfish?

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Originally Posted by KickingWater View Post
How do you quantify the impact of the rake to determine where it's not worth playing at a certain level?

Ignition now (since Dec 13) collects $0.01 for every $0.20 in the pot for FL games. It used to be $0.05 for every $1. Same rate (5%), they now just apply it at smaller increments so they are able to collect more than they were with $1 increments.

The max rake is $3 for a full 6max table (I thought it was only $2), $2 for 4-5 players, and $1 for 2-3 players. This applies to stakes from $1/2 up through $30/60. This is where I can see the advantage to playing higher stakes - the max rake is the same, thus significantly less as a % of the average pot as the stakes increase.

With a 1BB/100 win rate being an acceptable rate, I don't understand why you say 1.25BB/100 loss due to the rake is "completely beatable". Seems you'd have to be winning about 3BB/100 (exceptional in my understanding!) to overcome this.
When people talk about 1 BB/100 being a "good" win rate, they mean 1 BB/100 after rake. So they're talking about beating the other players for something like 3.5 BB/100 in a game where the rake is about 2.5 BB/100. The net winnings would then be 1 BB/100. That's the number your database would display.

That said, this was in the days when you could get 27% percent (or better) RB many places. So .27 * 2.5 = .675, so even with a win rate of a little under 1 BB/100, you could still earn over 1.5 BB/100.

Let's say you beat the other players for that 3.5 BB/100 but the rake is 3 BB/100 and the RB is effectively zero. Now you're only earning .5 BB/100. That's your win rate, and with zero rakeback, that's also your total earnings.

It's possible that the current rake in 1/2, 2/4, and 3/6 on Ignition is worse than 3 BB/100. I'm trying to find out to see if it's worth playing there. 4/8 and 5/10 seem questionable as well.

8/16 and 10/20 are probably fine, but it's hard to get to those stakes without either depositing significant cash (which I'm disinclined to do on a site like Ignition) or running up a smaller deposit in smaller stakes games.

The worst part of the rake hike is changing HU play from $.50 cap to $1. Not only does this thwart all small-stakes HU play, it also makes game-starting much harder/less-profitable/suicidal against a non-terrible player. This is a big reason fewer tables are running. I understand that they don't want people crushing each other at HU, but with the rake crushing both players, it's a lot harder to get a game going.

This is less of an issue at 20/40+, though it will literally double the rake there because every pot is rake capped.
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Old 01-07-2017, 09:58 PM   #34
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Re: Stats + Results = TAGfish?

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OP, try live play. With your stats, I think you'd have a good chance to be a winner in most live $8-$16 to $20-$40 games.
Not many opportunities to do that in Idaho, I'm afraid. I used to think I could win at those stakes but the fact I've been losing since my "comeback" at $2/4 online has shattered my illusions of grandeur.

I've read recently, but don't understand, there's a factor of 10 between online games and B&M games. I find it hard to believe. Games at $20/40 live are of the same quality as games of $2/4 online??
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Old 01-08-2017, 12:01 AM   #35
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Re: Stats + Results = TAGfish?

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Originally Posted by KickingWater View Post
Not many opportunities to do that in Idaho, I'm afraid. I used to think I could win at those stakes but the fact I've been losing since my "comeback" at $2/4 online has shattered my illusions of grandeur.

I've read recently, but don't understand, there's a factor of 10 between online games and B&M games. I find it hard to believe. Games at $20/40 live are of the same quality as games of $2/4 online??
It might be closer to 15-20x IMO.
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Old 01-08-2017, 01:45 AM   #36
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Re: Stats + Results = TAGfish?

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It might be closer to 15-20x IMO.
How does that make sense?
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Old 01-08-2017, 04:14 AM   #37
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Re: Stats + Results = TAGfish?

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jdr, do you adjust this 45% if you're in CO or HJ vs. BT?

The 45% makes sense, especially when I consider the possibility of making dead money out of the blinds and the original raiser's likely call. I'm in for 3 SB of 7.5SB in the pot. At 5% rake that's 3 of 7.125SB, or 42%. 45% equity represents an edge. That does not even take into account position + fold equity.

But in CO, HJ, MP...? Greater possibility of someone waking up behind.
You can definitely 3-bet looser on the BTN v. LJ than in the HJ v. LJ. You should also consider how the PFR plays after the flop. If they're very showdown bound, you can skew your 3-bet range towards hands whose equity comes from showdown value (pocket pairs, Ax, KQ, KJ, KT) and against opponents who fold more postflop you can 3-bet wider, especially with hands that can barrel off on lots of boards (like suited and connected type stuff).
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Old 01-08-2017, 05:42 AM   #38
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Re: Stats + Results = TAGfish?

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How does that make sense?
A few reasons

1) the average online player is younger than a live player. As a result, the average live player at a certain stake tends to have a much higher net worth, so the $ means less to them by nature

2) by simply downloading a client, creating an account and depositing, the online player has shown a level of dedication that a live player often hasn't.

3) online, everyone at the table is there solely for poker. Live, people are at the tables for the casino. Poker is just the game they're playing this time.

4) thanks to HUD statistics, large DBs, online training tools, and loads of history forcing you to play a less exploitable style, an online player often has a much better grasp of basic fundamentals. Live players don't have these resources, and many of them follow a very basic, dogmatic strategy as a result.

5) convenience. If you're a good limit hold em player and you have two choices: multitable 5/10 on Ignition or play live 20, the preferable option is very likely the online play. When playing online, you can get more volume faster, eat your own food when on breaks, and play much more on your own schedule. A 4 tabling reg at 1 BB/100 would make around $40/hour at 5/10; this is the same as a 1 BB/hour reg at live 20 (this translates to 3 per 100 live). While there's something to be said if your local live game is actually fun (and some games are actually pretty casual and social), any time you can make a living and not put pants on, you're probably happy.

6) tilt control. One area I notice former online grinders crush live players at (even good ones) is tilt management. Since live poker is so much slower than online, the amount of "bad beats" one might expect that can cause tilt are much lower. Online players have pretty much experienced every nightmare in the book, and a 5k hand/day grinder can probably show a daily horror story of someone making a ridiculous peel w/ two unders versus their TPTK and losing. Live players often don't conceptualize the brutality of FL fully and are much more likely to emotionally react.

7) the latter. Online poker, you start at, say, $0.10/$0.20, with the stakes going up at $0.25, $0.50, $1, $2, $4, $8, $15, $30, or something similar. So by the time you hit $15, you're battling regs that have already beaten up to 7 different levels of FL. The equivalent live game would be a 3rd, maybe 4th level game ($0.50 or $1).
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Old 01-08-2017, 04:56 PM   #39
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Re: Stats + Results = TAGfish?

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A few reasons... .
That all makes sense. Still amazes me the gap is that wide.

Wondering now if I should spend only a little time longer at $2/4 working on some of my new thinking and away-from-the-table equity exercises (derived from the excellent responses here) and my remaining poker BR and maybe tackle the $5/10 with just 100BB, see if I survive it. Maybe a trip to Jackpot, NV for some $10/20 this year to see how that goes.

Played last night for first time since posting. Found myself in some pots with some holdings I seldom or ever would have before, especially from the BB with tons of cold callers ahead of me, getting 9:1 on my call. Went well. Small sample. We'll see how it goes.
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Old 01-08-2017, 05:07 PM   #40
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Re: Stats + Results = TAGfish?

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Originally Posted by GiantBuddha View Post
You can definitely 3-bet looser on the BTN v. LJ than in the HJ v. LJ. You should also consider how the PFR plays after the flop. If they're very showdown bound, you can skew your 3-bet range towards hands whose equity comes from showdown value (pocket pairs, Ax, KQ, KJ, KT) and against opponents who fold more postflop you can 3-bet wider, especially with hands that can barrel off on lots of boards (like suited and connected type stuff).
That all makes perfect sense. I worked out some new preflop guidelines using equity calc's for all hands dependent upon the villain's VPIP/PFR, with a raiser or caller in front of me. Very interesting and informative. I want to experiment through other scenarios but I have not decided what kind of equity I ought to have if:

a) I'm in CO or HJ. Do I want 48% or 50% equity here since position is worse? Must depend on tightness/looseness of players behind me also.

b) In addition to a), factoring in a 2nd or third limper or cold-caller in front of me, from BT, CO, HJ

A 5% equity edge (e.g. 33%+5% vs. two other players) seems ("feels?") like a reasonable place to start, but that's not based on sound theory. Less likely to get blinds to fold, more likely to get one or two other players involved, less fold equity with multiway pot. Yeah, simple game.
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Old 01-10-2017, 09:57 AM   #41
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Re: Stats + Results = TAGfish?

KickingWater you seem like more of a "I need a good reason to play this hand in this spot." kinda guy.

Try playing a session at .5/1 and change your mentality* to: I need a really good reason not to play this hand in this spot.

*easier said than done.

A short mind trip report that I think is relevant:

A few years ago I found myself taking the game too seriously. I decided that if I was faced with what I thought was a close decision, I would take the more aggressive option. I had more fun than ever that year.

----

Some good reasons to not play a hand including but not limited to:

1) A good player has entered the pot for a raise and you don't think you have enough equity to 3 bet. ldo

2) The pot is unopened but there are loose players behind you and you don't have enough potential to win a 3+ way pot often enough to cover the cost of a raise.

3) The pot is unopened and there are tight players behind you, however the possibility of someone waking up with a real hand is too great to play this hand in this spot.

etc.
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Old 01-10-2017, 07:24 PM   #42
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Re: Stats + Results = TAGfish?

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KickingWater you seem like more of a "I need a good reason to play this hand in this spot." kinda guy.

Try playing a session at .5/1 and change your mentality* to: I need a really good reason not to play this hand in this spot.

*easier said than done.

A short mind trip report that I think is relevant:

A few years ago I found myself taking the game too seriously. I decided that if I was faced with what I thought was a close decision, I would take the more aggressive option. I had more fun than ever that year.

----

Some good reasons to not play a hand including but not limited to:

1) A good player has entered the pot for a raise and you don't think you have enough equity to 3 bet. ldo

2) The pot is unopened but there are loose players behind you and you don't have enough potential to win a 3+ way pot often enough to cover the cost of a raise.

3) The pot is unopened and there are tight players behind you, however the possibility of someone waking up with a real hand is too great to play this hand in this spot.

etc.
Good point, Bob. I believe the change in mentality is already beginning, and I've played just one session with it and did notice some differences. By having more fun I assume that means winning more large pots! I actually did, and with some holdings I may not have played before from the blinds.

Your advice is more of a view of the forest and a more general way of thinking correctly, offered while I'm at the same time taking a closer look at every tree. I think balancing them is a good thing.
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Old 01-12-2017, 08:16 PM   #43
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Re: Stats + Results = TAGfish?

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Originally Posted by GiantBuddha View Post
/It's possible that the current rake in 1/2, 2/4, and 3/6 on Ignition is worse than 3 BB/100. I'm trying to find out to see if it's worth playing there. 4/8 and 5/10 seem questionable as well.
GB,

I played $2/4 last night and used the hand history feature for the first time. It's 5%. The history includes the pot total and the rake. They took $2.40 from a $48 pot. This would be capped at $3 ($60 pot). Same cap at other low stakes through $30/60 I think.

If 5% is low, the rake alone should not be beating me.
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Old 01-12-2017, 08:20 PM   #44
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Re: Stats + Results = TAGfish?

By the way, the hand history at Ignition is immediately available after the hand, and shows cards that were mucked a the showdown. What's up with that? I don't want opponents knowing what I mucked when I showed up with 2nd best hand. Is that normal??
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Old 01-16-2017, 05:13 AM   #45
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Re: Stats + Results = TAGfish?

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By the way, the hand history at Ignition is immediately available after the hand, and shows cards that were mucked a the showdown. What's up with that? I don't want opponents knowing what I mucked when I showed up with 2nd best hand. Is that normal??
yeah, it's a great tool for players that suspect cheating/collusion to go back and look at hand histories.
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Old 01-16-2017, 01:38 PM   #46
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Re: Stats + Results = TAGfish?

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Originally Posted by KickingWater View Post
By the way, the hand history at Ignition is immediately available after the hand, and shows cards that were mucked a the showdown. What's up with that? I don't want opponents knowing what I mucked when I showed up with 2nd best hand. Is that normal??


That's another way that online players get better faster than live players. Information is obtained much quicker and more readily available.
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Old 01-23-2017, 02:05 PM   #47
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Re: Stats + Results = TAGfish?

Thought I'd post a quick update on how the application of your ideas shared here is faring thus far. Still playing mostly $2/4.

My winnings graph has turned sharply upward in January, and for the first time since getting back into the game in November, since I began applying some of these concepts, especially preflop raise or fold vs. call anywhere but in the blinds, 3-betting more getting money in preflop when I have an equity edge, playing from BB far more often, loosening up a bit to what seems to be much closer to 30/20 of late, being less timid post-flop when I figure to still have the edge... Having "more fun", Bob.

I'm noticing that when I do win, the pots are far bigger on average than what they were. Bottom line, more and bigger pots coming my way.

Too short a trend so far to be 100% confident it's the change in play that's at the root, but seeing my graph turn back upward after two months of steep descent is encouraging feedback I have to admit. Especially since it corresponds to implementing what I've learned here.

I can tell I'm still very unsure what to do in the SB, folding far too often in every situation. Probably need to shore that one up immediately.

What a beneficial forum for learning/improving.
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Old 01-23-2017, 02:39 PM   #48
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Re: Stats + Results = TAGfish?

If there's any position where being "too tight" isn't terrible, it's the SB. Most people are the opposite and decide to suddenly start taking 1.5 to the face with 98o because "pot odds".

Can you post recent stats?
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Old 01-23-2017, 05:18 PM   #49
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Re: Stats + Results = TAGfish?

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If there's any position where being "too tight" isn't terrible, it's the SB. Most people are the opposite and decide to suddenly start taking 1.5 to the face with 98o because "pot odds".

Can you post recent stats?
I'll try to find some time to post some filtered stats tonight.

As for SB I think I recall Stox recommending playing only about 20% of hands to a raise in front. I need to review those sections. Of course, I'll open from SB with a wide range but that does not happen as often as having players ahead of me.
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Old 01-24-2017, 01:05 AM   #50
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Re: Stats + Results = TAGfish?

Revised stats since adjusting play
I was disappointed I couldn't narrow this to just what I've played since 1/7/17 so these are a bit jaded by a losing session at the end of December and my "old" ways through Jan 4. The original stats posted Jan 1 are in ( ).

hands: 2342
VPIP 29.2 (26.7)
PFR 21.3 (17.9)
WTSD% 34.5 (37.9)
W$SD 52.0 (51.2)
AGG% 49.9 (53.3)
W$WSF 41.9 (42.4)
Steal% 42.3 (36.5)
BFtS 59.3% (64%)

Total Won: $284 (-$1,565.35)

I did not include sessions prior to 1/7/17 in the Total Won. 574 of the 2342 hands in these stats are still representative of my "old" ways, but I think the move in the stats shows progress anyway. I roughly calculated that I've won ~4bb/100 since 1/7/17 (1768 hands) when I implemented adjustments.

By position:
BB: 37.4 VPIP/9.9 PFR/41.2 Agg/28.5 WTSD/444 hands
-8.91 bb/100

SB: 37.0/26.0/56.1/33.1/438
-9.9 bb/100

BTN: 28.7/25.3/53.0/35.1/435
-5.08 bb/100

CO: 28.3/27.8/57.3/38.6/446
17.2 bb/100

MP: 20.1/20.1/54.8/52.3/363
7.44 bb/100

EP: 15.3/15.3/37.3/37.0/216
-2.73 bb/100
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