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Old 07-17-2012, 10:25 PM   #1
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River Bluff Catch

Villain is a Taggish 26/20 regular, 3-bets a reasonable amount. I think he's just started experimenting with checking back flops in this spot because I haven't seen him do it much before. Every time he has taken this line its been unimproved overs.

Not sure if I should bluff catch the river hoping he's turning AK/AQ into a bluff. I'm guessing his range on the river is like AJ-AK & KQ, maybe KJ/A8, not really sure.

Poker Stars $2/$4 Limit Hold'em - 6 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Pre Flop: (1.5 SB) Hero is CO with 9 A
1 fold, MP calls, Hero raises, BTN 3-bets, 2 folds, MP calls, Hero calls

Flop: (10.5 SB) 7 9 T (3 players)
MP checks, Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: (5.25 BB) 5 (3 players)
MP checks, Hero bets, BTN calls, MP folds

River: (7.25 BB) J (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets, Hero
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Old 07-18-2012, 02:41 AM   #2
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Re: River Bluff Catch

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Originally Posted by Slide View Post
I think he's just started experimenting with checking back flops in this spot because I haven't seen him do it much before. Every time he has taken this line its been unimproved overs.
When I read this I unconsciously expected to see a HU pot with a J84r flop. Then I read the actual deal which is 3-handed with a HJ limper and a really gross flop.

I'm just not persuaded that your previous experience is relevant. I think a lot of people who "never" check back would seriously consider making an exception here.

My take on the flop is he probably doesn't have a good hand or a nice draw. Beyond that I'm keeping an open mind.

I think if you bet the river a lot of worse hands would call. The only question is do you feel good about folding to a raise from this opponent.

Having checked I think you have to call. All the signs are against folding:

1. You are getting 8-1.

2. His turn call looks very weak.

3. You showed weakness by checking the river.

4. The flush draw is busted.

5. AK/AQ look like important parts of his range.

6. You beat some pairs. Are you sure he doesn't have A7s, K9s, 66, or some such?

Don't overthink this. You are HU in a big pot with a showable hand versus a weak-looking opponent who has been encouraged to bluff. Folding is for masterminds.
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Old 07-18-2012, 10:44 AM   #3
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Re: River Bluff Catch

Gah I call! i dont like folding the river given your description of the villian.
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Old 07-18-2012, 12:35 PM   #4
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Re: River Bluff Catch

Stellar, to be clear, are you advocating a Bet/Fold on the river if I can confidently fold to a raise?

At the time, I felt confident villain didn't have a 7x/9x type hand. I also think he bets flush draws 100% of the time (I think these fall into most regular's "good hand or good draw" range). He could have a hand like 66 or 44, I'm not sure about that. Given these reads, I didn't think a river bet was very good. I felt he wouldn't call me with 66/AK on this river.

I think your other points are very valid.
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Old 07-19-2012, 11:51 PM   #5
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Re: River Bluff Catch

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Stellar, to be clear, are you advocating a Bet/Fold on the river if I can confidently fold to a raise?

At the time, I felt confident villain didn't have a 7x/9x type hand. I also think he bets flush draws 100% of the time (I think these fall into most regular's "good hand or good draw" range). He could have a hand like 66 or 44, I'm not sure about that. Given these reads, I didn't think a river bet was very good. I felt he wouldn't call me with 66/AK on this river.

I think your other points are very valid.
Yes, if there is little or no risk of being raised by a worse hand I would bet-fold the river.

I think Villain usually has a little something to show on the turn. If he had a good hand he would be playing much more aggressively. With a pure draw most people would also be playing more aggressively. My biggest concern is did we get rivered?

You think it is so easy for Villain to fold AK? You bet the blank turn after Villain checked back and HJ checked. Do you actually need two cards to do that or will your good looks suffice? After you get HU on the river it seems automatic to fire again with any unshowable hand.

From Villain's perspective he is getting 8-1 and has no real reason to believe you have anything. I think the big aces and all the random pairs are calling more often than not and I don't fault them for it.
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