Originally Posted by Slide
I think he's just started experimenting with checking back flops in this spot because I haven't seen him do it much before. Every time he has taken this line its been unimproved overs.
When I read this I unconsciously expected to see a HU pot with a J84r flop. Then I read the actual deal which is 3-handed with a HJ limper and a really gross flop.
I'm just not persuaded that your previous experience is relevant. I think a lot of people who "never" check back would seriously consider making an exception here.
My take on the flop is he probably doesn't have a good hand or a nice draw. Beyond that I'm keeping an open mind.
I think if you bet the river a lot of worse hands would call. The only question is do you feel good about folding to a raise from this opponent.
Having checked I think you have to call. All the signs are against folding:
1. You are getting 8-1.
2. His turn call looks very weak.
3. You showed weakness by checking the river.
4. The flush draw is busted.
5. AK/AQ look like important parts of his range.
6. You beat some pairs. Are you sure he doesn't have A7s, K9s, 66, or some such?
Don't overthink this. You are HU in a big pot with a showable hand versus a weak-looking opponent who has been encouraged to bluff. Folding is for masterminds.