Say you play heads-up and you have Q6.
You check/raise the flop of 76s3.
You bet the turn 8
and the river is 5.

- What % of worse hands do you need to get called to make a bet/fold to a better option than check/fold?
- I bet 1BB into a pot of 6BB, does that mean, that if I get called more than 1/7 times by worse hands, then a bet is better than a check?
- Would you bet here, or check? why

That's a complex question. Lets assume that:
a) villain never raises a worse hand, and
b) we never induce a bet from villain by checking (i.e. he never bets after we check if he has a hand that was folding in case we bet).

Then we need anything over 50% equity to profitably bet/fold. But since most villain's are capable of both a) and b) you need more than that to make this profitable.

No. Just think about it for a second. If he calls you 1/7 times with worse hands that implies that 6/7 times he calls you with better hands. So 1/7 times you win one extra unit and 6/7 times you lose one extra unit... How on earth could that be profitable?

I would bet because I figure that the value of inducing isn't that great for a variety of reasons and because I'm going to get called by worse a lot more than I'm going to get called/raised by better.

Oh, and I'm not folding to a raise either.

Agree with most everything in the response, but I'm curious why you would so surely b/c?

Its an extremely bluff-friendly runout and a hand like As3x (top of folding range?) or such I'm turning into bluff sometimes against some opponents, but there are also plenty of opponents I could see almost never raising river w/o at least a straight. Is it mostly bc there are so many overcards that missed everything and have great incentive to bluff?

I'm assuming OP referring to huhu and not 6m, so villain's wider range huhu would include more 4's and 9's than if its a BTN open and BB defend.

Thank you for your anwser.

This was my reason behind it:
Let's assume that if we check, our opponent bluffs 20% of the time, and valuebets 80% of the time. We are getting 1/7 on our call, so we should call.
When we bet, we win the pot 25% of the time, and lose 75% of the time. Isn't betting better than checking? But I guess I ignored the fact that we can win if the action goes check-check.


Is there any situation when we have less than 50% EQ on the river, we are out of position, and we want to bet? And not for the reason to induce a bloffraise.

I made a calculation and I'm not sure if my math is right.

So our opponent's hands of distribution is the following:
-5% bluff (can't call, will bluff always if we check)
-55% better value hand (will always call, and will always bet if we check)
-40% worse value hand (will always call, will never bet)

The pot is 8BB on the river
Our EV if we bet: (40/95)*9-(55/95)*1=3.21
Our EV if we check: 0.4*8=3.2

So we are betting here to avoid being bluffed out of a big pot. Is that correct?

You don't have 50%+ EQ on this board anything but a straight, even if you expect to get called by 32+.


[FONT=courier new][SIZE=12]
Board: 763*8*5
*******EQUITS***WIN**TIE
MP2********37.54%**36.73%*****0.81%*{ Q6o }
MP3********62.46%**61.65%*****0.81%*{ A9s, A6s-A3s, K9s, K6s-K3s, Q9s, Q6s-Q3s, J9s, J6s-J3s, T6s-T3s, 96s, 94s-93s, 65s, 53s, 43s, 32s, A9o, A6o-A3o, K9o, K6o-K3o, Q9o, Q6o-Q3o, J9o, J6o-J3o, T6o-T3o, 96o-93o, 65o, 53o, 43o, 32o }
[/SIZE][/FONT]

I included every 3x 4x 5x 6x 9x combinations, because I assumed to get raised by 7x and 8x on the turn. If you dont expect that, then your equity is even worse. If you expect to get raised by 9x on the turn, you also have to expect to get raised by 5x, so it doesn't improve your EQ either.

usually a snap check back. in a hu match, game/player dynamics play a huge role, and with no reads at all given, your question is just too vague.

misread the action. i'm never firing on the river though. it's clearly a c/c or c/f depending on the opponent type (that of which i have no idea).