Villain is running at 44/26 over 100 hands, but has a small 3-bet percentage. I think he can have hands like 88 or AJo, KQs, when he calls here preflop. I'm pretty sure I would have heard from Tx+ by now. I also expect him to semi-bluff most of his flush draws on the flop or turn, but probably not all of them. He may bluff some stuff if I check the river, but I don't expect him to be super induce-able and bet stuff like KQ/A5. I expect him to bet all pairs if I check.

I decided to Bet/Fold because I think its better than Ch/Call or Ch/Fold, even if its not purely a value bet. I'm not concerned about being bluff raised on the river. Thoughts?

Poker Stars $1/$2 Limit Hold'em - 6 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Pre Flop: (1.5 SB) Hero is MP with Q A
1 fold, Hero raises, CO calls, 2 folds, BB calls

Flop: (6.5 SB) 2 T 6 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, CO calls, BB folds

Turn: (4.25 BB) 2 (2 players)
Hero bets, CO calls

River: (6.25 BB) 3 (2 players)
Hero Bets

I like the b /f on the river.

If he was the BB and you had position, would you check this river behind if he check called flop and turn ?

It's not quite the same. Villain will probably bet his low pairs when checked to, but check them when first to act.

off the top of my head i think it is pretty close between b/f and c/c. My reads on villain would help me make the final decision.

This probably one of my weakest spots where I could really use the most help improving my game. UI A hi oop and lost on the river.

Looks like a c/c to me, against a good opponent I'd consider c/f. Betting doesn't seem to accomplish anything since the times you're getting thin value from something like AJ/A9s (which I really discount from being in a 44/26 cold call range, but since it's your read that he doesn't 3b often, we'll include it) are going to be outweighed big time by the times that he's calling down with pocket pairs. You're never folding out anything better, obviously.


c/c seems like the river play to me. KQ/QJ can conceivably bet the river as a bluff since you've essentially turned your hand face up as A-hi or a low pocket pair. Personally I think it's a pretty bad play for villain to bluff in this spot with those hands, since folks don't often c/f A-hi in that spot, but we don't have a read either way on how this guy plays postflop. There are 24 combos of KQ/QJ vs. 21 combos of 33-55, and a few discounted combos of 77-99. So hopefully I've done my math right and he needs to bluff his KQ/QJ combos around 12% of the time for it to be a profitable c/c. If you factor in that there's a chance he's passively played a flush or straight draw to this point and can fire a barrel on the river, it seems more obviously a c/c.

I think your original thoughts seem right. Its another application of the Fundamental Theorem where you have a CCer with a wide probable range even after he calls two streets and especially on a paired board. So by c/cing you allow him to make far fewer mistakes against you. I think you get called all day by this guy with Kx and maybe even some Q's and certainly Ax. If he's foldy on the river then it is a lot closer imo but I think as played it's pretty good.

b/f is 10x better then a check call put villan to the decision