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Preflop: KQ/KJ in SB vs a early position openraise Preflop: KQ/KJ in SB vs a early position openraise

01-28-2009 , 08:25 AM
3/6 6-max online:

UTG/UTG+1 openraises, folded to you in SB.

BB is your average Joe.

The raiser you know to be a regular winning player, vpip ~30%. He has a relatively high went to showdown, you suspect you'll need at least two barrels to get him fold Ax UI, probably three barrels and even that might not be enough.

You think the Villain opens as wide as: 22+, A4s+, K9s+, QTs+, A8o+, KTo+, QTo+, 65s-JTs, 87o-JTo


You hold...

1. a) KQs b) KQo

2. a) KJs b) KJo

Bonus: a) KTs b) QJs


Do you raise, fold or call?


The reason I'm asking is that I'd usually tend to raise/fold those hands, 3-betting KQs/KQo and perhaps KJs. "By-the-Book poker". This question originally came up at another site and was posted by a player playing a lot higher than me, 10/20-30/60. He argued for a call with lot of those hands. Argument was that it is hard to get folds from Villain if you miss and banging your head in to a wall OOP isn't nice. Also, getting BB in with a worse hand wouldn't be that bad either.

So, what do you think? Here's some hot/cold equity calculations vs that range I gave for Villain:

49.46% ( 22+, A4s+, K9s+, QTs+, A8o+, KTo+, QTo+, 65s-JTs, 87o-JTo )
50.54% ( KJs )
52.12% - 47.88% ( KJo )
49.68% - 50.32% ( KQo )
47.18% - 52.82% ( KQs )
51.57% - 48.43% ( KTs )
52.15% - 47.85% ( QJs )
01-28-2009 , 09:10 AM
Well first of all. If thats really the range you are faced with then folding any of those hands is terrible.

That said its an extremely weird range and not too many players will have that kind of a range in both UTG and HJ.


Whether or not to 3-bet depend on the exact hand you hold, on the BB to some extend, but most importantly how postflop will play out in each scenario.

The key thing to consider is that K high and Q high has SD value vs said range so if you just call you should generally try and showdown on uncoordinated and/or low boards. If villain is gonna make it tough on you to see a showdown with KTs or QJs UI then 3-betting has the very important merit that it will make you win some of the pots where both of you miss instead of having you giving up to 3barrels by worse hands.


There is no clear answer to your question except

- If thats his range you should play much weaker hands than the ones you mentioned
- Having a raise or fold mentality is terrible but dont worry about it because everyone else who reads 2p2 and ps has the same ******ed approach so you wont be the only one
01-28-2009 , 09:19 AM
One thing i would like to add is that his range is so wide implying your equity with hands like KJs/KQs is so good that you need a REALLY good reason not to 3-bet. There is simply too much value to just call
01-28-2009 , 09:53 AM
Thanks, good points.

One thing that prompted me to post this was that the people advocating a call preflop were also thinking of c/f UI as a default line (c/r hits of course). That seemed like leaving a ton of value on the board.

Regards to raise or fold mentality, point taken

Continuing on the same vein, let's tighten that range a bit:

57.27% ( 44+, A7s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, A9o+, KJo+ )
42.73% ( KQo )
60.34% - 39.66% ( KTs )
61.30% - 38.70% ( KJo )

What conditions need to be met that you would be willing to just cold call in SB vs a winning player with that kind of range?

EDIT: The FAQ apparently has good post about CC'ing preflop. I need to study that a bit more closely.

Last edited by Mitke; 01-28-2009 at 10:06 AM.
01-28-2009 , 10:40 AM
If you are gonna c/f A92 flop with KQs then a call PF is absolutely terrible
01-28-2009 , 10:41 AM
I doubt a winning player has that kinda range. Its an extremely irrational and poorly constructed range. No way is 87o better than A3s and no way is it gonna be +EV to play T9o, 87o UTG and no way is 87o better than J9o.
01-28-2009 , 06:05 PM
ok thats a more accurate UTG range.

i guess the obvious situation to maybe consider a coldcall is when the bb is a mega fish.

this is a good question. aside from that i have no idea about this..
01-29-2009 , 09:12 AM
I studied that FAQ thread I mentioned (Leader on CC'ing PF) a bit closer.

I try to sum the conditions mentioned there to favor a CC from SB (mainly for my own benefit and trying hard not to butcher the ideas in that thread):

WHEN TO CONSIDER COLD-CALLING

You are uncertain about Villain's range and how you fare vs it:
  • This is more likely to be true when Villain raises fairly widely and is to some extent unpredictable.
  • Your hand falls to a grey area of slightly +EV or -EV or thereabouts vs Villain's range. We certainly can't be very strong or very weak either. Our questimate could perhaps fall around 47-53 give or take ~5-7 pips to either direction.
  • A possible example could be a 37/25/2.1 raising from HJ and we have J9s. He could have A9o but he could have T9o or 76s as well. You just can't be too sure.
We prefer not to have initiative going to the flop
  • If the Villain is not likely to fold a better hand to aggression we perhaps shouldn't take it, especially with hands that have little showdown value.
  • If the Villain is capable of stealing the initiative with worse hands, exploiting his position, we are better without the initiative.
  • If check-raising the flop does not scare Villain into making correct folds or otherwise playing better, we do not want to have the initiative.
  • If we have a hand with no showdown value we prefer to get away cheaper when we miss the flop. This costs us 1.5SB calling preflop + sometimes peeling 1SB on the flop. The other scenario costs 2.5SB 3-betting preflop + 1SB c-betting flop + 1SB sometimes calling a flop raise or 2SB 2-barreling the turn.
  • If our example Villain is also showdown monkey, aggressive and tricky postflop, like perhaps 37/25/2.1 and WTS around 40-45 we'd prefer not to have the initiative, without showdown value.
Our implied odds are good
  • If BB is prone to 3-betting a lot in this spot, it hurts the implied odds for any of our holdings. It also opens the betting for original raiser to cap. So we prefer a BB who is on the passive side.
  • We also prefer a BB we like to keep in the pot. Perhaps on the loose side or otherwise willing to give too much action postflop. (This I'm not too sure about how to put. Generally, I'd rather have such a player on my right. This usually contradicts with BB's preferred tendency not to 3-bet a lot preflop. Are LPA's common?)
  • Our hand plays well multiway. E.g. suited connectors, 1-gappers etc. fit the bill.
  • 3-betting preflop would hurt our implied odds. We have a hand with uncertain equity vs raiser but we do have a much better picture on the flop.

You are uncertain whether trying to get it HU is worth the price
  • Many hands still favor a HU scenario vs 3-way OOP. If BB is likely to call a 3-bet, ie is very loose, you should prefer CC.
  • If BB is prone to capping light we prefer a CC to a 3-bet too.
  • If BB is very tight he might fold anyway, even getting 5-1. No need to 3-bet with the intention of folding him.
WHEN TO 3-BET (or FOLD)
  • You are in position. With position you can often decide how many bets go in. When Villain is in position and plays well post flop he generally wins the max when ahead and loses the minimum when behind - same for you when in position.
  • Villain has a tight pfr range. The tighter it is the better decision you can make. As the range moves closer to the top hands, it is more likely his range dominates your hand. You either have a hand that fares well vs that range or you don't. When you hit a pair, you either crush him or are crushed. It is more black and white.
  • Villain is tight postflop. With initiative you can win more of those posts when you both miss. He might even fold some better hands.

      
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