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I open QJo in the HJ, seemingly solid (only 50 hands) CO 3bets, others fold, I call.

Flop: 922

I check, he bets, I?

Thank you for your thoughts!

6m, fr?

what range do you give him

Bad peel

6m

like top 13% on pokerstove (seem reasonable?)

thx for ur thoughts

I have plugged this into cardrunners ev creating a fairly basic tree
conditions were the following:
cutoff 3bets with 66+,A9s+,KTs+,QJs,AJo+,KQo fairly standard, little on the conservative side.
he will cbet his entire range on the turn which is obv not always true, he may check back some of his pairs on Ax turns but I wanted to keep the tree fairly simple
we will just call with any turned top pair, gutshot or oesd. obv, we can chose to c/r, but again it would complicate the **** out of the tree, having to decide whether to cr/call down, guessing what range our opponent fold etc so I just kept it simple for now
on the river I made him bet any pair or better on a non Ahi-Khi board, and TP or better otherwise. yes this will miss some second pair valuebets but fairly close to realistic.
we c/r-call any straight, c/r/3b a boat and c/r/fold top2pair which I might not be able to do irl, but I don't think we ever get 3betbluffed here so let's just do the right thing for the analysis. we fold when we miss everything ldo.

so with this simplified tree I got -0,14 sb EV on the flop peel, which means its very close to 0EV and (imo) it can turn to + or more minus depending on how we and villain handle various spots - like can he be barelled off Ax with a turn semibluff, can we get away from our hand if we cr turned tp and get 3b or raised on the river, etc etc.
overall it seems like it might be better to save ourself the trouble and fold on the flop I think, if the opponent seems solid. then again, if he is a reg who is 3betting you all the time and you play a lot against, you might want to take a stand.

thank you so much, this is great analysis daiquiri.

in the past in hands where i'm headsup oop vs a 3 bettor ive sort of taken a general approach to try to make showdown decisions once i see the flop. and per that approach this would have been a snap fold for me based on our equity (of somewhere around 21%).

but ive kindof realized recently that you can potentially go ahead with some hands if they are going to be fairly easy to play - i.e. turn cards will very clearly either "help" or "not help" you. the only turn card that would be tough for me would be a king (call or fold?). i'd continue with any 8, T, J, Q and i'd fold everything else.

im sure ur right that if you have those other post-flop tricks up your sleeve that you described and can deploy them effortlessly/correctly then calling the flop is fine. dunno if i'm at that level.

thxs again....

no u

this flop is awesome for you. like every turn card gives you a pair or a draw. i think folding here is a bit tight.

K or 8 only gives you a gutshot and your pair outs are very dirty.

I doubt peeling then just calling again with a GS is +EV vs a TAG 3 bet from CO. But I never did any analysis on it.

If we have BDFD too I'd c/r, as it's almost the best bluff we'd have.

With daquri villain range its a peel on flop, thighter range its a fold

I peel, but I am not happy about it.

also if you don't peel it invites him to 3bet you lite in the future, when he has JTJs, and then gets you to fold QJ, KT, A5 etc.

metagame

if he adjust by 3 betting more why couldnt we adjust after ?

i think A5 is a poor peel here

is your plan to cc flop and cr any turned pair or draw (gutshot+)?

EDIT: nm, i just cardrunnerEV'd that strategy and it's pretty losing