Quote:
Originally Posted by DougL
I would suggest you make it your personal mission to use the search function and read every thread/post you can find in the LHE forums about variance, sample sizes, win rates, and risk of ruin. You'll find some great posts. You'll learn a ton.
You have a 10k sample where you dramatically changed your play some way through. Let's say you have two 5k samples. Based on that, you basically know nothing about your long term win rate. A 100 BB "downswing" is nothing, and you've written it off to bad play; it might just be a normal result of you 9 tabling 6m at this point.
Winning is good. Keep doing that. Good luck as you move up. As you move up to stakes where a BR has real meaning (i.e. you couldn't easily re-deposit and keep playing), it would be worth your while to understand the terms you're using. We've all been there throwing around stats terms in wrong ways. The long run is an annoyingly long way away. The best news is that you'll probably move up a couple more limits due to profit before you come close to a significant sample. That's normal/good.
I kind of thought after I reread that post it might come across as a brag. That is not what I meant. I have been playing this game for 7 years, and I have been a winning player for the last 1/2 of that time at stakes as high as 5/T. My biggest problem has always been BR management. The 5/T games aren't nearly as soft as they were when I was beating them, so lets say maybe I'm good enough to beat 1/2 or 2/4.
I know I am good enough to beat the current levels I am playing, because I have read nearly all of the BR stuff and the win rate stuff to be found on this site. The reason I am doing so well at the moment is 2 fold. First, I have finally decided to stick to a BR plan. Second, I am constantly reading and rereading SSH and all of the strategy posts that I can find on this amazing web site.
Please don't take me saying that I know I can beat this level as a brag, but more as I am finally doing what I am supposed to do, and listenening to the advice of others such as yourself. I know that 100bb is a drop in the bucket, and I know that my current tracking of 15K hands is piddly. I have probably played in the neighborhood of 500K hands or so of poker over my career, but I am just finally listening to the right people.
Thank you tremendously for the advice!