I assume this is okay with the powers to be, but Ive had a few private messages for my old articles, so I decided to post them here when they are no longer avaiable on the 2+2 website.

Id prefer people dont reply much to this post, in order to keep the articles easy to find within the post. If theres a better option than this for archiving my articles, let me know VIA PM.

Yes don't reply to this please. thx -Leader

My articles are primarily geared towards tight/predictable TAG's moving up from the small stakes to the mid stakes.

Article #1:
You may be more exploitable than you think

This article will be assuming the reader has an intermediate knowledge level of common shorthanded limit concepts. If any of my assumptions confuse or shock you, I suggest reading Winning In Tough Short-handed games by Stoxtrader to become acquainted with some important shorthanded concepts.

I’m sure if you’ve put any time into playing shorthanded limit you’ve encountered that extremely aggressive player where their aggression level seems almost comical. Time and time again you laugh as you rake in a nice size pot with your pair of aces, and villain in question shows you 5 high.

You may have also experienced the frustration of playing against these players when you’re running terrible. You’ve been folding hand after hand, cursing the poker deities for your terrible run of cards. Finally you get a weak made hand, only to showdown and be shown a better hand. Sometimes it seems like there’s’ nothing you can do to win a pot against these guys.

It is fairly easy winning money in the low limit games by playing a tight predictable style taught by the dozens of limit poker books. Unfortunately as you move up in stakes in the shorthanded games, there will come a point where this style is going to cause you to bleed money slowly until you are broke. The goal of this article is to identify some situations where many TAG’s have holes in their strategy and may get overrun by super-aggressive players.

Many low limit grinders, or full ring players converting to shorthanded are told on these forums “You are going to have to loosen up your preflop raising standards as well as blind defence standards to play in higher limit shorthanded games”.

Most winning players advocate a style in the range of 24-33 voluntarily put in pot% with a 17-23 preflop raise %. This may be much looser than the preflop style needed to beat the low limit games. It is MUCH looser than the preflop style required to beat full ring games
So let’s assume that you adjusted your pre-flop strategy to follow one of the many hand charts floating around on these forums, or the ones available in the latest book by Stox.

One thing many new players notice is how loose of a range you can profitably open on the button against almost any opponent types. Most charts advocate raising between 33-45% of your hands on the button. Subsequently they also advise defending vs a button raise with an even wider range.

Something you may not realize is in order to make all those extra hands added to your distribution profitable, you must also adjust your post-flop strategy to reflect how many extra hands are in your range. This means altering the way you play the hands already in your range, not just the ones you’ve added to your range.

In my opinion the most dramatic required shift in strategy from tight to loose range situations in limit poker is on dry boards.
A dry board is defined as a board that contains no flush draws and has very little to no straight draw combinations.
EG A59, K72, J72

When you are in first position, or in a full ring game, your range is so pair/ace heavy that if you take a light showdown approach on these boards, crazy aggressive players are just going to be handing you their money.
However, when you’re on the button or in the small blind, this is very far from the truth.

It is my presumption that playing the way that most poker books teach for full ring situations on rag boards is a big mistake. The key assumption is that the poker books are assuming you are playing as tight as they are advocating preflop.
To prove my point I’m going to prove that a button raiser taking a “standard TAG” approach to handling ace rag boards will be very exploitable by a super-aggressive opponent bluffing any 2 cards.

Assumptions:
1. The action goes as follows:
It is folded to the button who raises. The SB folds and the BB calls.
Flop: A72 with no flush draw possible
BB checks, button bets, BB raises, button calls
Turn: X
BB bets, button…

2. Buttons preflop range is the one recommended in Stox’s book:
22+, A2s+, A3o+, K2s+, K9o+, Q5s, Q9o+, J7s+, J9o+, T8o+, T8s+ , 97s+, 98o, 86s+, 75s+, 65s

3. BB has 0% equity on both boards
4. BB will fold to a turn raise or check/fold the river if his turn bet is called.
5. Small blind is half the size of the big blind
6. Button will call or raise the turn with any pair or strong draw made on the turn, otherwise he will fold.


Discussion:

On the turn the pot is 4.25 BB, so in order for a bluff to be profitable BB must take down the pot 38% of the time on the turn. This is because BB has 0% equity and is risking 2BB to win 3.25BB (2/5.25 = 38%)

To confirm my suspicions that BB has a profitable bluff, I calculated what % of cards button will be folding on all the various turn cards will come.
Overall, 39.6% of Button’s hand range on the turn has no pair or strong draw, confirming my suspicion that a check/raise bluff with 0% equity is profitable. There were a few simplifications I made in the calculations here and there but all of these simplifications were biased in buttons favour.

It may seem close, but unfortunately these assumptions were very unrealistic in favour of button! There are three major factors which makes bluffing with air significantly more profitable than my calculations suggested. All of these things my calculation didn’t take into account.

1) 1/8th of the time BB will spike a pair improving his hand over many draws and low pairs in buttons range
2) If BB has backdoor flush/straight draws, many turn cards will improve his turn equity to over 20% when button has a hand.
3) Many hands button will be folding for 1 bet on the flop , such as 56s, which can turn a flush draw or an open ended straight draw, allowing him to see the river card.

You may think these assumptions are too tight, but I’ve seen hundreds of TAGs play even tighter than these assumptions suggest. For example on K72 or Q74 boards they often fold all ace high hands. I see people on these forums frequently advocating folding small pairs on the kind of dry board I have used as examples in this article.

Conclusions:

There are two major points that can be taken from these calculations and discussion:

1) If you are on the button and a very aggressive player bets into you or check/raises on a very ragged board, even if its ace high, you must get out of the “predictable TAG” comfort zone. This means getting past the turn with your good high card hands or bluffing with air (on the flop or turn).
Since your range is fairly ace heavy relative to other high cards, a strategy that cannot counter a bluff from a zero equity hand on an Ace high board must be too weak of a strategy.

2) From the BB you have a very profitable bluff with any two cards on a rag board if you suspect the following:
-the preflop raiser has a wide range
- the preflop raiser won’t rebluff without a good draw
- the preflop raiser wont showdown very light with high cards.
or call the turn with gutshot draws (though this depends on the board)

In conclusion, if you are considering widening your preflop opening range from any position, be aware of how adding weaker hands to your preflop distribution will require adjustments to your post flop strategy so you cannot be easily exploited. This involves tweaking the way you play the hands you already had in your distribution in order to have a more well rounded strategy. This means you need to to bluff more, show down lighter and push your hands harder for value. Wider ranges call for looser and more aggressive play.

The most common scenarios where you will have to alter your strategy against very aggressive players are in Button vs SB, SB vs BB and Button vs BB battles.
Some examples of boards to be wary of are:
A44, A24, 455, K73. 944

Look for spots where super aggressive players will run over you... There are probably more than you think. There’s a reason why all the highest stakes limit games may seem “crazy” to the untrained eye.

Article #2

Countering Chronic Bluffers Part 1

Introduction

In my opinion, semi loose and very aggressive players that bluff too often are the most difficult player profiles to maximally exploit.

The reason I find them so tough is because of the patience and discipline needed to play in a style that exploits them. By the nature of their style, they will be taking many more pots off you then you will off them, this can feel overwhelming when you are running badly. In other words, when you both miss the board completely, it is much more likely that they will take the pot down, since they are likely to be more aggressive at stealing it. By definition they are “too bluffy” so if you have nothing, you will likely be faced with them retaking the initiative, forcing you to raise bluff to take down the pot. Not only do you get much worse odds on raise bluffs, but you will often get re-raise bluffed yourself, making it extremely difficult to rebluff them.

However, chronic bluffers by definition are TOO bluffy, which means they bluff more than the optimal bluffing percentage. So how do we go about exploiting this? Since we are losing out on value on our bluffs than we would against an optimal opponent, we must make up for this value on our made hands.

How do we get more value on our made hands?

1) Be more aggressive with your good hands than you normally would
2) Fold less of your weak-made hands than you would against a perfect opponent
3) Take betting lines to induce your opponents to bluff more often

Since you are tied to showdowns and push your hands harder against these opponents, your variance will also likely increase drastically.
Getting 2 bets on the flop, 3 on the turn, while being the 90% favourite, only to find yourself behind on the river, is not an uncommon occurrence.

This makes them very difficult to play against, because they require you to keep your play disciplined yet very aggressive. When on “tilt” it is very easy to get out of line against chronic bluffers. This “induced tilt” is part of the reason there are many chronic bluffers who achieve mild success at the mid-high stakes games.

However, if you stay calm, and utilize some of the principles I describe in this article, chronic bluffers can be a significant source of profit.

Profiling the chronic bluffer:

Before you devise a strategy to maximally exploit the chronic bluffer you must identify some of their traits. Not all are created equal.

Here are some important traits that should cause you to alter your playing style:
1) Can they hand read at all?
2) Do they re-raise bluff? All streets?
3) Do they bluff with hands that have showdown value?
4) How loose are they preflop?
5) How light do they showdown?

1)
Hand reading villains are often a lot tougher to play , because they are the ones that you have to mix your play up against.
If you never bluff them, they are going to start recognizing this, and stop giving you unwarranted action. They are also less likely to bluff you when its obvious you are strong.
For example a hand reading villain is much less likely to bluff you on an A hi flop than another flop if you are the preflop raiser. They will likely reason that you are too strong on this board for a bluff to be worth it.

2)
Finding out their re-raise bluff tendencies is absolutely critical. Good knowledge of this will have a big effect on your strategy. It defines your bluffing frequency, what streets you get aggressive on and finally how aggressive you get. Many chronic bluffers will go mental on the flop, but become much more conservative on the later betting rounds. Many opponents will also frequently be able to go for multiple bets on the turn with nothing. It is uncommon for anything but the most maniacal bluffers to be able to bluff for multiple bets on the river.

3)
Opponents who bluff with showdown value are opponents who frequently bet or raise in situations trying to represent a scare card (or when they are very likely beaten) to fold out a better hand (or for no reason at all) but will also call the raise with the hand they are trying to bluff with.

Example is check/raising the turn with ace high, but calling down from a reraise.
Combining someone who does this with someone who reraise bluffs frequently is a player who is nearly unbluffable.

4)
What percentage of hands do they voluntarily pot into the pot preflop. Looser players preflop are both more likely to have a missed the board, as well as be raising with weaker hands.

5)
How frequently do they showdown? This effects how often you should bluff, as well as how aggressively you should value bet.
Most opponents who are chronic bluffers are fairly loose preflop and showdown an extreme amount. Chronic bluffers differ fairly substantially in the other traits.

Principles to counter the chronic bluffer:

Instead of structuring this section like an essay, I think it would be more beneficial to the reader to list a variety of concepts to keep in mind when they are playing against chronic bluffers
Whenever I play someone who I label a “chronic bluffer” I try to actively think about their tendencies (see above section) and which of the concepts apply most to them.

There is not one way to play a chronic bluffer, simply because they all differ, so the best strategy to exploit one is not the same as another. A few of these principles won’t apply to your particular villain, so keep in mind if the tendencies of your opponents are the same as what I’m assuming when explaining a concept.

I will explain what I think the most important principle in the article, then leave the next for next months article.

Principle #1: “The illusion of action”

In my opinion the most important concept to countering a chronic bluffer who is not crazy is to cultivate an image of being much more loose and aggressive than you really are. Many poker authors call this “the illusion of action”.

Most chronic bluffers are fuelled by machismo and ego. The idea that they may be “out agroed” or “out bluffed” is an attack to their machismo. If you provoke with your bets trying to simulate a “challenge” they are much more likely to give you unwarranted action on your monsters. Some chronic bluffers do not give action to players who play super tight, so its important to gamble with them occasionally.

So how do you do this against players who make it so unprofitable to bluff? My favourite way to give what seems like “unwarranted action” is to get extremely aggressive with medium-weak made hand that also have good redraws.

Examples are: pair + draw (straight/flush) or Ace high and flush draw on a not very coordinated board.

Against chronic bluffers pair + draw combos are extremely potent. Since they bluff so often, there is a decent chance you are ahead with your pair, but if you are behind, you are not very far behind. Moreover, your overall equity is likely high enough to warrant the increased aggression. Therefore you get the combined effect of a crazy image while potentially making immediate +ev plays!

Since most of these opponents will not realize the full dynamics of the situation, they may assume you give this much action in many situations with just one pair. In order to maintain the status of “most aggressive” they will likely give you far too much action in the future when your hand range is polarized towards monsters.

Here’s two examples to show what I mean:

Example One:

You raise from one off the button with T [club] T [diamond]
A hand reading chronic bluffer calls your raise.
Board is J [heart] 9 [heart] 7[spade]
He checks, You bet, he calls
Turn comes a 4 [spade]
He checks, you bet, he raises...
I suggest 3-betting here and betting most rivers.

He could be doing this with a pair of 7’s or 9’s for value, he could be doing this with ace high, two pair, set , straight or he could be doing this with a flush draw/air. You are ahead of a significant portion of this range.
However, if you are behind, you have anywhere from 6-12 outs.. The only hand you don’t have many outs against is against 8T, but this hand is half as likely as normal since you have two T’s in your hand.

Also, because of the drawy nature of the board and the fact there are a large # of flush draw combinations he could have, he very well may cap you with his draw, trying to regain the initiative from a flush draw/straight draw you may have.
Despite your equity being excellent in this situation, to an untrained eye it looks like you were getting out of line with one pair on a scary board.

Example two:

You raise first in from the button with A [diamond] 4 [club]
Only the “very bluffy” BB calls.
You know the BB likes to bluff very frequently with nothing.
The board comes 3 [heart] 5 [spade] 5 [diamond]
The BB bets into you.

I advocate raising here, and capping a 3-bet. Call down if bet into on future streets.
Your ace high has a good chance of being good here, but if its not, you very likely have many outs when behind. Overall your equity is probably very good.

Warning: There is value in getting a bluffing opponent to bluff off bigger streets, so this wouldn’t be the best play against every player. If they aren’t likely to re-raise bluff, and/or will always fire 3-barrels if you call down, it would be better just to call down.

However, for establishing a very aggressive image, or against players who will re-raise bluff frequently, this is a great spot to give “the illusion of action”.

Another effective strategy (but not nearly as important against most opponents) is to make very slightly –EV plays in order to cultivate a crazy image, then tighten up... The only problem with this is against a crazy opponent, these –EV plays may end up costing you more money than you realize. Be more inclined to make these plays against players who can hand read well, or will alter their strategy depending on how you play.

Some example of this are
3-betting suited connectors preflop in position vs a very aggressive/showdowny opponent, showing it down, then tightening up.
Capping draws on the flop/turn that you know do not quite have the equity or fold equity to warrant the aggression.

Note: Often you can cap the flop with a good draw against these opponents for value anyways, since your pair outs are much more likely to be good.

The illusion of action is a very important concept that applies to nearly all playing styles (with the exception of ultra tight players), however, its even more important against people who bluff too much.... Especially with made hand + draw combos.

In summary, the idea is to provoke a pissing contest with the bluffers and lead them into playing more loose/aggressive than they currently are, without sacrificing immediate EV.

To be continued next month.....

Article 3

Countering Chronic Bluffers in Short-handed Limit Hold 'em, Part 2

This article is a continuation of last month’s article on “Countering Chronic Bluffers in Shorthanded Limit Hold ‘em, Part 1”

To get the most out of this article, I suggest reading last month’s first.

Principles to countering chronic bluffers (continued):
2. Do not let them scare you with scare cards

Many opponents like to retake the initiative on scare card with bluffs, the scare card itself and weak made hands that they wish to value bet, but do not want to get raised.

For example,
You raise on the button with AA
The big blind calls.
Flop is J42,
BB checks, you bet, BB calls.
The turn is a 4
BB bets...

This is an example of representing a scare card, since BB is claiming that the 4 improved him in some way. Therefore he is representing trips or better.

This is a highly effective strategy that nearly every player should incorporate into their game, but one that is very exploitable if the scare card itself does not make up a large percentage of the betting range.

Many chronic bluffers use these scare cards with nearly their entire range (sometimes they’ll play everything BUT the scare card this way!). Since their range is often loose, that means a very high percentage of their range did not hit the scare card they are representing.

If you allow them to put you into a passive shell when they bet on these scare cards, they will be able to:
- Value bet your weak hands without fear of being re-raised.
- Steal the initiative when you have nothing and they have nothing.
- Lose the same amount of money as check/calling when you have both have a medium-strong hand, but yours is stronger..

Fortunately there is an easy counter to the above strategy if it is unbalanced. If you have a good hand, and they try to represent a scare card that is better than your hand, if you believe there is a high percentage chance they do not have this hand, RAISE! Sometimes it is extremely unlikely that you have this scare card, so they will likely call you down very light... or re-raise bluff you.

You should also occasionally bluff raise in these spots if you can adequately represent the scare card and they don’t re-raise bluff very often.

Example 1:
You raise on the button with AA
A semi-loose and very aggressive bluffer calls in the SB, BB calls.
Flop is 443,
Everyone checks to you, you bet, SB calls, BB folds.
Turn is a 3.
SB checks, you bet, SB raises, you should reraise!

We know SB will take a shot at this spot a good % of the time... and we also know that a 3 or a 4 makes up a very small % of his preflop range, so even after the check/raise, you should be very confident with your AA.

Since you are going to be weak here so often, a reraise in this spot looks like a blatant bluff. Many very aggressive opponents will call the turn bet, trying to catch a pair (or if the board pairs they chop), or will 4-bet bluff the turn trying to rebluff you. Don’t be surprised by a king hi call down here either.

Note: The best way to play this hand is very opponent sensitive

Example 2:

You raise 2 off the button with 55 and a bluff happy opponent calls in the big blind.
The flop is 345
BBchecks, you bet, and B calls.
The turn is a 7
BBbets. You should raise.

A bluff happy opponent will likely be betting into this board with a wide variety of hands, so you should certainly be raising a hand like 44/55. If they do have the straight you are not losing much (because of your full house redraw), and if they don’t, they are likely drawing very thin.

In fact, if they are likely to semi-bluff the flop with a 6 or fastplay a pair, you should probably raise 88+ on this turn.

Principle 3: Take betting lines to induce your opponent to bluff more

Against hand reading opponents who are capable of re-raise bluffing frequently; sometimes it is best to forgo the “standard” play in order to make it look like you are bluffing. If you can get a hand reading bluffer to suspect you are bluffing, they are more likely to rebluff you.

For example, on dry boards such as K62 or AA6, it is very common to slow play top pair, planning to raise the turn or the river. Waiting to a later street is often the best play, because if your opponents are bluffing , you force them to bet the turn/river in order to win the pot. Plus they may pick up a pair to improve to a second best hand, and pay you off on a later street.
Because of this reason, on flops like this, there are very few hands in a good players range that re-raises the flop. We also know that re-raising the flop is the cheapest way to retake initiative, as well as the cheapest way to bluff on a board like this.

A solid hand reading player who bluffs too often, is certainly capable of realizing this... Therefore, occasionally the best line to take is re-raising the flop, to encourage him to bluff you even more!

3.1 Betting to induce bluff raises

A common strategy in limit holdem is to “induce bluffs” from your opponents by checking (to feign weakness) and then calling a bet , hoping your opponent will be bluffing enough relative to the pot odds. However, in tougher shorthanded limit games where bets are thrown around much more liberally, there are many situations where you can make more money by inducing your opponents to bluff raise you instead.

The most common situation is to bet into scare cards that your opponent can possibly have, but they are likely to over-represent and bluff far too often.

For example:
You raise A2 in the SB and get called by a chronic bluffer in the BB.
The flop is 566
You bet and get called
The turn is a 5.

Often people’s instinct here is to check to induce a bluff. I think this is a big mistake against very aggressive players. By far the best play is to bet and call down. This is such an obvious scare card board, that anyone who is actively looking to bluff will take it.

Another more subtle example:

You raise from the SB with 8 [heart] 8 [club], a chronic bluffer calls in the BB.
Flop is Q [diamond] 9 [diamond] 6 [heart]
You bet, he raises, you call planning to call down.
The turn is the 3 [spade]
You check, he bets and you call.
The river is the Q [spade]

You should consider betting..

Not only did the river card mean it is less likely that he had a queen to begin with, but it also meant that every single draw in his range missed completely.
If the villain can hand read, he should easily reason that the queen did not help you and could be trying to steal the pot with a missed draw yourself. Thus, many opponents will bluff raise you a very high % of the time.

This only works against very aggressive opponents who can hand read.
In order to judge if you should bet to induce a raise, you should decide how many made hands in your opponents range you are losing to, how many non-showdownable hands you are beating and how likely they are to buff raise you.

If you are trying to induce a raise, it is better if you CANNOT represent the card you are betting into. This is because they are more likely to bluff raise you, thinking you are bluffing.

4. Exploiting unbalanced street aggression

If you recall back to the “profiling the chronic bluffer” section in the first article, I mentioned it was critical that you identify which streets the bluffer is capable of re-raise bluffing on.

Once you know their re-raise traits, the general idea for exploiting them is fairly straight forward.
If ever you have a close decision between raising the street you are currently on , or waiting to a future street, be more inclined to raise the street where the villain is most likely to re-raise bluff you.

For example, let’s say you call a chronic bluffers raise in the big blind with A7
The flop comes 733
Whether to check/raise the flop or slow play until the turn against an average opponent depends on many factors. On average, the most important factor is how often they will check behind on the turn.

However, against a chronic bluffer, id be more inclined to think “How can I get him to play back at me the most?” This is how we will make the most money. The more hands in his range that missed the board, the more hands he has to bluff.

If I know that my opponent likes to go wild on the turn a lot, id be much more inclined to wait to the turn. If I know that they are much more likely to go wild on the flop, id check/raise the flop. From my experiences, most people would go wilder on the above flop with bluffs.

If you suspect they will try to rebluff you a high % of the time here, my suggestion is often to re-raise their raise, because your hand is very strong relative to your range of hands. They still may not believe you too because you will be so weak on average here.

Note: Against pure maniacs it is normally correct to just raise the flop or “fast play”, because you want to get as many bets in as possible... By waiting to a later street you cap your maximum winnings at a smaller amount.

Conversely, if you are trying to bluff the bluffer, it is best to raise the street where you are least likely to be raised bluff.

If they re-raise bluff the turn a lot, it often means you have to either forgo bluffing altogether or on the odd occasion, wait to the river to bluff raise.
Remember, you can still raise draws on the flop for value, and for image.
For example, let’s say you are in the small blind and a chronic bluffer who you know is extremely aggressive on the turn, but moderately sane on the river, is in the big blind.

You raise in the SB with T9 [spade] and the BB calls.
The flop is J [diamond] 8 [spade] 5 [diamond]
You bet, he calls
The turn is the K [spade]
You bet and he raises.

Against an opponent who would never 4-bet bluff the turn (most tight-aggressive players), it would be correct to 3-bet this turn. Because of all the flush draws and straight draws out, it is likely they have a draw a good % of the time. If they don’t improve their hand, you can likely fold these hand out on the river. Since your draw is so strong, a bluff only has to work a small % of the time for your re-raise to be profitable.

However, against an opponent who would recognize that you “could” be bluffing here and is extremely aggressive on the turn, you will be 4-bet bluffed so often by a good draw, that your re-raise bluff may be unprofitable.
What I suggest against this type of opponent is to wait to a river that doesn’t improve many hands that he could be semi-bluffing with. The better you can represent an improved hand the better.

How I would handle certain river cards:

A of hearts = bet the river. It is unlikely he will raise bluff you. You can strongly represent this hand, and your opponent can’t easily represent one better. If you have an image indicating that you won’t fold very often and he doesn’t bluff-raise the river much, this is a cheap way to bluff at the pot. Make sure you play a pair of aces the same way.

6 of diamonds = check and fold. This card connects with too many hands that your opponent may have been semi bluffing. Don’t try to fold a pair, because it doesn’t work.

4 of hearts = check/raise the river. A bet on this card looks too obvious of a bluff. The 4 improves very few hands. Even someone who doesn’t bluff the river often could recognize this as an opportunity for a bluff raise. A check/raise is a MUCH stronger statement. Considering all the draws that missed, it will still likely be +EV.

really good **** itt

by far the best stuff to show up in the 2p2 magazine. quality bump.

Keep em coming Heisenb3rg
Great job!

does OP have any more of these articles floating around?