Originally Posted by antneye
Not overkill. I appreciate the discussion because I seem to be missing some v-bets lately and/or making poor V-bets also.
In this case I was thinking that the hands worse than 77 (lower PP's, UI overcards) would have barreled on the turn. Him check/calling the turn indicated to me that he is looking to get to SD cheaply with a hand that has fairly good showdown value.
If you are villain, what portion of your SB 3! range are you going into C/C mode on turn and river with and which portion are you continuing to barrel on turn and river with?
Tt, 99, 88 would be the only hands we're value towning ourselves with, and it would be really weak for villain to c /c those on the turn.
He might have ak,at, any ace with a heart, 22,33,44, a5. Even though his 3 bet is so low, I still expect him to loosen up vs a btn raise. Also, he might slowplay the very top of his range.
But the point is, if we're good better than half the time we should bet. And I think ak/at especially is so common here that we need to bet.